The OCC are still at about 95% / 96% of the album market and it appears (based on a post made by MFR at another website) that the OCC figures only calculate sales within that 96% (the "defined universe sales" - DUS). Sales outside of the DUS are apparently not calculated by the OCC. On an album with very high sales such as "21" this would mean a large number of over the counter sales were not being captured.johnnyboy wrote:Pierpinto
According to that MJD thread, Bad's (shop) sales were about 3.0 million. We don't have figures for 1990/1991 but sales for 1992 were just 54,000.
Shop sales could have been about 3.25m 1992 plus about 0.25m for club sales (I previously rounded it up to 0.3m) that is 3.5m. Still short of the BPI certified award of 3.9m or 4m + apparently claimed by Sony then.
If she has sold just over 4m, why then the shipments of 4.5m. Surely there are now no club sales, the OCC has almost 100% of the album market. Are there 500,000 knocking around in shops?
The best way to illustrate this is to look at the sales of "21" in 2011. I hope MFR doesn't mind me quoting a post he recently made at Haven:
In response I wroteThe figures we see in Music Week are not ordinarily intended to be total sales. They are the Defined Universe Sales (DUS), representing around 95% of the total market, with record companies adjusting these figures if they wish to account for stock shipped outside the defined universe.
At least, 95% was the percentage that applied in 1997. Has it changed much since then?
An article in the January 13th 2012 Music Week gave an insight into this. While the year-end chart report gave 21's sale for 2011 as 3,772,346, a separate piece about sales of entertainment products said 21 had a sale of 3,924,985. This latter figure represented physical sales grossed-up to the whole market, plus digitals. Therefore for 21 the DUS is at 96.1% of the estimated overall market.
Other albums differed. Michael Buble's Christmas had DUS at 95.8% of the estimated total market, Bruno Mars's Doo-Wops and Hooligans had DUS at 96.0% and Adele's 19 had DUS at 95.7%.
On that basis Adele's 4,020,833 up to last Saturday perhaps equates to a market estimate of close to 4,185,000.
Additionally, BPI awards are based on firm invoiced orders from the UK retail trade (though downloads work differently). Copies ordered do not have to be in the shops. They can be in warehouses or in the process of being delivered.
So the 15xP award claim and the DUS figures reported seem consistent.
and MFR replied withI was under the impression that the OCC used sampling to calculate all sales including those that take place outside the DUS. In the past Alan Jones gave the impression that this was what the OCC did. I must have misunderstood what he's written.
I'd seen the "grossed up" figures for "21" back in January, they appeared in a press release* from the Entertainment Retailers Association (ERA, the retailers trade body), had noticed the higher sales figure when compared with the figure provided by the OCC and now I recall had even commented on it but then totally forgot about it.A lot of what has been written has perhaps been ambiguous, but what I think Alan has sometimes been saying describes the conversion process from the sample to the DUS. The problem with estimating what is sold outside the defined universe is, of course, that such sales are entirely unknown to OCC, or 'undefined'.
OCC literature identifies what is not in the defined universe and explains to record companies how to convert DUS to market, which basically involves multiplying up to allow for whatever percentage of product is shipped outside the defined universe for a particular title. Only the record company and its distributors would know what that percentage is for each title.
I doubt that record companies bother to do these calculations very often, the instructions merely enabling them to calculate something the panel sales times a multiplier method used to give them automatically should they wish to.
So basically, there are close to an extra 200,000 sales of "21" that have been estimated to have occurred which are not accounted for in the OCC sales figures.
* here is the ERA press release from January
http://www.eraltd.org/news/era-news/cal ... adele.aspx