The Hits Daily Double Thread

[nickf1]

50,000 for Kris would be AMAZING, I will be happy with top 10 position.

[cabanaboy]

50,000 for Kris would be AMAZING, I will be happy with top 10 position.

I think Him and Haley will have a fairly close result

[Timmy94]

I don't know because she's hard to predict... Some casting acts actually sell, while others completely fall apart - not to forget that she doesn't have a current hit single.
So I went a bit safe saying she could sell 15-20k...

@fearlesswift13: Do you really think John Mayer could sell 270-350k in the first week? Everything above 320k would make it his highest first week sales, plus his total albums sales have been on a downward trend and were released in September to November, which is a time when sales are higher than in Q2... His last album had a total of 1.2 mio. (300k+ would mean at least a fourth of that) and he doesn't have a hit single or something which could explain a sudden popularity increase. Furthermore folk rock albums usually aren't very frontloaded...
All in all, I think its opening sales will be closer to 200k than 300k .

-----

50,000 for Kris would be AMAZING, I will be happy with top 10 position.

I think Him and Haley will have a fairly close result

Though it should be noted that Kris Allen is coming from an album with sales of 300k...

[fearlesswift13]

@fearlesswift13: Do you really think John Mayer could sell 270-350k in the first week? Everything above 320k would make it his highest first week sales, plus his total albums sales have been on a downward trend and were released in September to November, which is a time when sales are higher than in Q2... His last album had a total of 1.2 mio. (300k+ would mean at least a fourth of that) and he doesn't have a hit single or something which could explain a sudden popularity increase. Furthermore folk rock albums usually aren't very frontloaded...
All in all, I think its opening sales will be closer to 200k than 300k .

-----

Though it should be noted that Kris Allen is coming from an album with sales of 300k...

I didn't know his highest selling was only 320k I've just been following the sales on itunes and making a prediction based off of that because I would assume he would sell more physical than digital and I noticed that he was able to go #1 on preorders alone which Carrie Underwood didn't do and she sold 110k digitally so I was thinking he'd do 120-130k digitally and I'd assume physical sales would be at least 60% of the sales so that means sales of at least 260k. Hearing this I'll pull my predictions back to 220-250k but its still hard to predict because this is the 1st time he's had an album available to be heard for free on itunes and that's helped Coldplay in the past so maybe it helps him increase his sales as well.

[fearlesswift13]

My estimations:

John Mayer | 270-350k No. 1
MercyMe | 40-50k No. 4
Kris Allen | 25k No. 3
Slash | 30k No. 7
John McLaughlin | 1-2k /
Garbage | 20-25k No. 10-12
The Cult | 10-15k No. 35-45
Joey Ramone | 3-4k No. 150-160
Gossip | 4-5k No. 100-120
Kimbra | | 7-8k No. 100-120
Joe Bonamossa | 15-20k No. 20-30
Haley Reinhart | 10-15k No. 20-30

Let me give this a try. My answers are in Timmy's quote

Haley Reinhart is going to sell way more the 10 to 20k I would say 30k at the VERY least!

Its possible but I don't know of any hype at all plus she waited till the next season of idol is almost over to release her album and she doesn't have a hit single out now. That's why my prediction is so low but she could very well pull off 30k

[cabanaboy]

^The Haliens are a abuzz on twitter plus she sits at #6 and #43 on ITunes album chart

[Timmy94]

A lot of albums end far lower on the Billboard 200 than they were on ITunes. For example, The Civil Wars' Barton Hollow was the No. 1 digital album in its first week but only debuted at No. 12 on the Billboard 200 - and this is not even an extreme example.

Plus don't forget that Carrie Underwood, who also is an album seller, came from a 2x Platinum album (double that much of John Mayer's last album) and had a successful lead single (top 20 Billboard Hot 100, top 5 Country Chart) - Blown Away debuted with 267k and she hasn't had something which could explain a (heavily) decreasing popularity...

[NorfolkScot]

NOW IN: FINAL


LW TW artist / album label power index % change
-- 1 ADAM LAMBERT 19/RCA 77,815 --
TRESPASSING
2 2 ADELE XL/COLUMBIA 60,032 -42%
21
1 3 CARRIE UNDERWOOD 19/ARISTA NASHVILLE 52,553 -56%
BLOWN AWAY
5 4 NORAH JONES BLUE NOTE/EMI 46,842 -17%
LITTLE BROKEN HEARTS
-- 5 TENACIOUS D COLUMBIA 46,588 --
RIZE OF THE FENIX
4 6 NOW THAT'S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 42 CAPITOL/EMI 42,800 -32%
VARIOUS ARTISTS
-- 7 GLEE CAST COLUMBIA 40,009 --
THE GRADUATION ALBUM
3 8 LIONEL RICHIE MERCURY NASHVILLE 37,790 -47%
TUSKEGEE
-- 9 BEACH HOUSE SUB POP 36,185 --
BLOOM
6 10 ONE DIRECTION SYCO/COLUMBIA 34,226 -14%
UP ALL NIGHT
18 11 SMASH CAST COLUMBIA 25,934 +34%
MUSIC OF SMASH
8 12 JACK WHITE THIRD MAN/COLUMBIA 23,295 -32%
BLUNDERBUSS
11 13 LUKE BRYAN CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 21,291 -19%
TAILGATES & TANLINES
10 14 GOTYE FAIRFAX/UNIV REPUBLIC 20,331 -23%
MAKING MIRRORS
-- 15 SANTANA STARFAITH 19,451 --
SHAPE SHIFTER
-- 16 GARBAGE STUN VOLUME 18,980 --
NOT YOUR KIND OF PEOPLE
13 17 NICKI MINAJ YM/CM/UNIVERSAL REPUBLIC 18,052 -17%
PINK FRIDAY... ROMAN RELOADED
16 18 JASON MRAZ ATLANTIC 16,378 -17%
LOVE IS A FOUR LETTER WORD
-- 19 WILLIE NELSON LEGACY 16,312 --
HEROES
-- 20 GODSMACK UNIVERSAL REPUBLIC 15,991 --
LIVE & INSPIRED
12 21 B.O.B. GRAND HUSTLE/ATLANTIC 15,356 -30%
STRANGE CLOUDS
20 22 ERIC CHURCH CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 15,223 -18%
CHIEF
23 23 JASON ALDEAN BROKEN BOW 13,647 -16%
MY KINDA PARTY
-- 24 BEST COAST MEXICAN SUMMER 12,014 --
THE ONLY PLACE
24 25 KIP MOORE MCA NASHVILLE 11,592 -25%
UP ALL NIGHT
35 26 ALABAMA SHAKES ATO 11,489 -3%
BOYS & GIRLS
40 27 FUN. FUELED BY RAMEN 11,072 +3%
SOME NIGHTS
25 28 BONNIE RAITT REDWING 11,024 -28%
SLIPSTREAM
27 29 TRAIN COLUMBIA 10,746 -27%
CALIFORNIA 37
41 30 DRAKE YM/CM/UNIVERSAL REPUBLIC 10,590 0%
TAKE CARE
32 31 RIHANNA DEF JAM/IDJ 10,501 -12%
TALK THAT TALK
7 32 SILVERSUN PICKUPS DANGERBIRD 10,491 -73%
NECK OF THE WOODS
22 33 ADELE XL/COLUMBIA 10,081 -44%
19
21 34 LEE BRICE CURB 9,967 -45%
HARD 2 LOVE
30 35 BLACK KEYS NONESUCH 9,884 -19%
EL CAMINO
19 36 MARY MARY COLUMBIA 9,750 -48%
GO GET IT
38 37 OF MONSTERS & MEN UNIVERSAL REPUBLIC 9,659 -17%
MY HEAD IS AN ANIMAL
-- 38 SHADOWS FALL RAZOR & TIE 9,518 --
FIRE FROM THE SKY
-- 39 KRIZZ KALIKO STRANGE MUSIC 9,233 --
KICKIN' & SCREAMIN'
14 40 RASCAL FLATTS BIG MACHINE 9,228 -55%
CHANGED
-- 41 LISA MARIE PRESLEY UNIVERSAL REPUBLIC 9,115 --
STORM & GRACE
28 42 AVENGERS ASSEMBLE HOLLYWOOD 8,682 -36%
SOUNDTRACK
9 43 TANK ATLANTIC 8,610 -74%
THIS IS HOW I FEEL
39 44 NOW THAT'S WHAT I CALL MUSIC 41 CAPITOL/EMI 8,557 -22%
VARIOUS ARTISTS
26 45 LADY ANTEBELLUM CAPITOL NASHVILLE/EMI 8,465 -44%
OWN THE NIGHT
29 46 MARILYN MANSON DOWNTOWN 8,154 -39%
BORN VILLAIN
-- 47 OWL CITY UNIVERSAL REPUBLIC 8,100 --
SHOOTING STAR EP
43 48 SHINEDOWN ATLANTIC 8,096 -16%
AMARYLLIS
37 49 KELLY CLARKSON 19/RCA 7,782 -33%
STRONGER
33 50 WHITNEY HOUSTON RCA 7,708 -35%
WHITNEY - THE GREATEST HITS

[Play]

Already outselling Carrie... I can!

[tada]

Already outselling Carrie... I can!

next week, hopefully, it will be vice versa - Carrie should benefit from BB music awards!

+ = amazing for Norah
- = bad for amazing Garbage. Physical release must bring the album to Top 10

[NothingFails]

I kinda hoped at least one of Donna's hits collections (most likely The Journey or On The Radio) were going to make the top 50 due to the huge exposure from her passing.

[Timmy94]

Already outselling Carrie... I can!

next week, hopefully, it will be vice versa - Carrie should benefit from BB music awards!

Like Adele wouldn't with her win of 12 awards ... I mean she's already in all article's headlines (again) .

[tada]

Already outselling Carrie... I can!

next week, hopefully, it will be vice versa - Carrie should benefit from BB music awards!

Like Adele wouldn't with her win of 12 awards ... I mean she's already in all article's headlines (again) .

I know! I'm such a jerk

[NorfolkScot]

ADAM LAMBERT IDOLS AT #1

Tenacious D, Glee Cast and Beach House Also Debut in Top 10

May 22, 2012

You don’t necessarily have to win American Idol to have a successful pop music career.
Adam Lambert, who finished second in the eighth season of the Fox music competition to champion Kris Allen, sees his sophomore 19/RCA album, Trespassing, debut at #1 on this week’s HITS chart, selling nearly 78k.

XL/Columbia chanteuse Adele’s 21 remains steady at #2, adding another 60k to a total that is now at 9.14 million and counting.

Lambert’s fellow Idol contestant, 19/Arista Nashville country star Carrie Underwood’s Blown Away, slips from #1 last week to #3, with 52k, giving her a three-week total of almost 450k.

Blue Note/EMI singer/songwriter Norah Jones’ Danger Mouse-produced Little Broken Hearts settles in at #4.

Columbia rock parodists Tenacious D—Jack Black and pal Kyle Gass—debut at #5 with Rize of the Fenix, one of four newcomers to the Top 10 along with Columbia’s Glee Cast: The Graduation Album (#7) and Sub Pop’s Baltimore dream-pop duo Beach House’s Bloom (#9).

Capitol/EMI’s Now 42 (#6), Mercury Nashville’s Lionel Richie (#8) and Syco/Columbia’s One Direction (#10) round out the leader board, giving Team Stringer/Barnett four of the Top 10 and Doug Morris’ Sony Music six of them.

Other new entries in the Top 50 include Starfaith’s Santana (#15), Stun Volume’s Garbage digital-only release (the physical comes out this week) Not Your Kind of People (#16), Legacy’s Willie Nelson (#19), Universal Republic’s Godsmack live set (#20), Mexican Summer’s L.A. indie hot shots Best Coast (#24), Razor & Tie’s Shadows Fall (#38), Strange Music’s Krizz Kaliko (#39), Universal Republic’s Lisa Marie Presley (#41) and Owl City EP (#47).

Columbia’s Music of Smash album is the week’s biggest double-digit gainer, moving #18-11, +34% on the strength of the NBC season finale.

Fueled by Ramen’s fun. (#40-27, +3%) is the Top 50’s only other positive gainer.

Columbia’s John Mayer tops this week’s release schedule along with Epic’s Sara Bareilles EP, Fair Trade/Columbia’s MercyMe, Dik Hayd/EMI’s Slash, WB’s Kimbra, 19/Interscope’s Haley Reinhart, 19/RCA’s Kris Allen, Cooking Vinyl’s The Cult and the physical release of Stun Volume’s Garbage.

[NorfolkScot]

MAYER IS MAJOR ON
NEXT WEEK’S CHART

Singer-Songwriter-Guitarist’s New Album Set to Debut with 225-250k

May 23, 2012

Columbia Records social media maven and swoon-worthy rock star John Mayer will easily debut at #1 on next week’s chart with his new, critically acclaimed Born and Raised album.
Based on one-day sales from those retailers who haven’t packed it up for the Memorial Day weekend show that the release will sell between 225-250k in first-week sales. It’s his first new studio effort since Battle Studies, which moved 286k units back in Nov. 2009.The new disc is being praised for its winning throwback to the vintage Laurel Canyon sound of Crosby, Stills, Nash and Young.

Veteran Dove Award-winning Fair Trade/Columbia Christian act MercyMe’s The Hurt & the Healer should debut with 35-45k in sales.

Dik Hayd/EMI Label Services rock guitar god Slash’s Apocalyptic Love is aiming for sales of 30-35k after his induction into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame as a member of Guns N’ Roses.

Epic songstress Sara Bareilles’ five-song EP, Once Upon Another Time, is looking at a similar total of 30-35k for a release that has been in iTunes’ Top 10 this week.

Warner Bros. New Zealand performer Kimbra, now known for her vocals in Gotye’s “Somebody That I Used to Know,” is looking at 20-25k for her label debut, Vows, already Top 5 in Australia and her native country.

19/Interscope Idol contestant Haley Reinhart emerges with her well-received debut, Listen Up!, which is on target for 15-20k.

Eighth season Idol winner Kris Allen’s 19/RCA sophomore album, Thank You Camellia, is looking at 15-20k as well after his debut scored 80k out of the box in Nov. ‘09. It’s interesting to note, the contestant he defeated, Adam Lambert, entered at #1 last week with his second album, Trespassing, generating sales of 77k.

Album sales were down 9% vs. last week, down 6% vs. same week last year and down 1.5% year to date.

Track sales were flat vs. last week, up 3% vs. same week last year and up 7% year to date.

TEA sales were down 6% vs. last week, down 3% vs. same week last year and up 1% year to date.

[marcsgirl85]

can't wait until the numbers leak

[rp662]

Hot on the heels of Sony edging past UMG in total marketshare comes news the music group has the potential for nine of next week's Top 15. Here's how it looks headed into the weekend:

*John Mayer (Columbia) 225-250k
Adele (XL/Columbia) 55-60k
Carrie Underwood (19/Arista Nashville) 50-55k
Lionel Richie (Mercury Nashville) 35-40k
*MercyMe (Fair Trade) 35-40k
One Direction (Syco/Columbia) 35-40k
*Slash (Dik Hayd/EMI Label Services) 30-35k
*Sara Bareilles (Epic) 30-35k
Now 42 (Capitol/EMI) 30-35k
Glee Cast (Columbia) 25-28k
Adam Lambert (19/RCA) 24-27k
*Kimbra (Warner Bros.) 21-24k
Norah Jones (Blue Note/EMI) 21-24k
*Tedeschi Trucks Band (Sony Masterworks) 18-21k
Luke Bryan (Capitol Nashville/EMI) 18-21k
Gotye (Fairfax/Universal Republic) 18-21k
Of Monsters and Men (Universal Republic) 18-21k
*Haley Reinhart (19/Interscope) 18-21k
Nicki Minaj (YM/CM/Universal Republic) 18-21k

*Debuts (5/24p)

[Timmy94]

I expected a 80%-drop for Adam Lambert, so this result is still kinda good for him... Well, this actually makes artists look ridiculous that drop 80%+ despite having hit singles and stand in main public (Adam Lambert is a bit out of talking atm) .

I expected No. 2 and 3 to stay steady.

Kimbra debuts very high considering her first EP only reached the Heatseeker Chart and is unknown outside of her Gotye feature (she doesn't even have a minor hit): She's expected to debut higher than Nicki Minaj's (current top 5 hit with Starships) and Gotye's (current No. 1 single) album that week.

John Mayer does more than I expected: I went a bit safe by saying he should sell 170-200k, but seems like people don't lose interest in him (other artists are on the steady decline while Mayer's last 3 albums debuted with 280-320k).

Seems like the Billboard Music Award doesn't have a major influence on the Albums Chart that week...

[tada]

great Carrie will remain inside Top 3! I wish she toppled Adele from No.2!!
TOO BAD for Garbage! I thought with physical release....they could have made Top 10!

If only they released the album with both physical/digital formats this week!

[cabanaboy]

Glad to see my girl Haley Reinharts prediction going up I hope she breaks or at least tops that prediction. Haley will be a huge star mark my words

[Pufnstuf]

Haley will be a huge star mark my words

With a flop single and an album that will be lucky to sell 100,000 copies?! No one outside of American Idol fans even knows who she is

[Timmy94]

Haley will be a huge star mark my words

With a flop single and an album that will be lucky to sell 100,000 copies?! No one outside of American Idol fans even knows who she is

Pufnstuf said that she will be a huge star, not that she is one. Many artists started small and took some years to become really successful, and even if I think you are right that her first album might not turn into a smasher (though who knows? Maybe it has a real smash 3rd/4th/5th which is that big to make the album sell some million copies? It can happen or it can't happen...) that doesn't say that some of her later ones won't...

[Pufnstuf]

that doesn't say that some of her later ones won't...

You are being very optimistic by assuming that she'll get the chance to record more than one album. If her album doesn't sell over 200,000 copies or so then her label will probably drop her. She's on a major label, so the epxectations are going to be high.

[stevyy]

great for mayer.. i hope he goes platinum again. (all albums have so far).

[Timmy94]

that doesn't say that some of her later ones won't...

You are being very optimistic by assuming that she'll get the chance to record more than one album. If her album doesn't sell over 200,000 copies or so then her label will probably drop her. She's on a major label, so the epxectations are going to be high.

But how did some artists start with relativel low albums, went album for album, sometimes had flops sometimes hits before reaching their peak?
If they never got the chance to record a 2nd album, they also never turned out to be a success...
From what I've seen, she mainly sells from the buzz of being a former American Idol candidate? This is a very one-sided because this can be enough to sell millions of records OR you can be totally unrecognized because the casting show hype wasn't enough or turned many people off...