Madonna :: The "MDNA" Era

[Timmy94]

But you know that before MDNA, the 2 least successful studio albums were American Life and Hard Candy with sales of 4 mio. (official numbers)?
And both of those albums were already huge disappointments compared to their forerunners...

And now think of MDNA falls apart even far more!
5 mio. sounds like much but it's because the expectations are kinda huge. If there's an artist whose albums have each sold 3 mio. and then the next album sells 2 mio., it would do moderately, while it's clear that an artist who has sold between a wide spectrum of 25 mio. to 4 mio. has higher expectations...

[denise]

For your Gaga example: From falling from 15 mio. to 8 mio. (official numbers, using the other numbers from 12 mio. to 6 mio. has a similar result so no problem), you could say tha Born This Way did moderately .

Yes but not exactly good news is it? We don't know where MDNA will end up once the singles and the tour is said and done. According to your calculations, if it sells more than 2 million copies, is it still flop or underperformance Timmy?

More than 2 mio. would still mean a flop...
I could give you the numbers:
0-20% (0 - 1.6k): fail
20-40% (1.6k - 3.2 mio.): flop
40-60% (3.2 mio. - 4.8 mio.): underperformance
60%-80% (4.8 mio.- 6.4 mio.): moderate
80%-100% (6.4 mio. - 8 mio.): OK

This calculation is completely ridiculous. Moderate success if the album sells more than 5M copies? Where do you live?

I do not even give that guy any importance by now....just try to ignore him.

[upushme]

I could give you the numbers:
0-20% (0 - 1.6k): fail
20-40% (1.6k - 3.2 mio.): flop
40-60% (3.2 mio. - 4.8 mio.): underperformance
60%-80% (4.8 mio.- 6.4 mio.): moderate
80%-100% (6.4 mio. - 8 mio.): OK

8 millions is just "ok" for you? In the year 2012?
I'd say it would be a huge success. Same can be said for what you call "underperformance".
"Ok" for me is an album that at the end of the year would be in the top 40, and 1.400.000 copies will be more than enough for that.
The achievement of 2-2,5 millions would make MDNA a successful album. I know it's a shame if we compare it with her previous albums, but in the YEC will be in the top5 and this automatically means "Big success of the year".

[truthless]

For your Gaga example: From falling from 15 mio. to 8 mio. (official numbers, using the other numbers from 12 mio. to 6 mio. has a similar result so no problem), you could say tha Born This Way did moderately .

Yes but not exactly good news is it? We don't know where MDNA will end up once the singles and the tour is said and done. According to your calculations, if it sells more than 2 million copies, is it still flop or underperformance Timmy?

More than 2 mio. would still mean a flop...
I could give you the numbers:
0-20% (0 - 1.6k): fail
20-40% (1.6k - 3.2 mio.): flop
40-60% (3.2 mio. - 4.8 mio.): underperformance
60%-80% (4.8 mio.- 6.4 mio.): moderate
80%-100% (6.4 mio. - 8 mio.): OK

lol. Not this mess again...

Stop it Timmy.

[Timmy94]

@upushme: I see your point, but I compare an album to what an artist is able to sell (his career standard) and less about what others do... It's because Rihanna has another standard than Madonna, Justin Bieber has another one than Lady Gaga and so on. But MDNA can be compared to Madonna's previous discography and therefore you can find out her standard and whether the new album can come up to it.

@truthless: I won't, because this method is good...

[truthless]

@truthless: I won't, because this method is good...

How is it good, if just ONE album could/can reach 8m+ Worldwide sales last year (21)?

There is no thing like standard. Album sales are weaker and weaker each year. You know that... so please.

[denise]

@upushme: I see your point, but I compare an album to what an artist is able to sell (his career standard) and less about what others do... It's because Rihanna has another standard than Madonna, Justin Bieber has another one than Lady Gaga and so on. But MDNA can be compared to Madonna's previous discography and therefore you can find out her standard and whether the new album can come up to it.

@truthless: I won't, because this method is good...

At least you believe it.
And now stop it, we couldn't care less of your method as you bring it here by now every 4 or five pages: enough of it.
It's useless argue over and over on the same stuff.

[Timmy94]

@truthless: I won't, because this method is good...

How is it good, if just ONE album could/can reach 8m+ Worldwide sales last year (21)?

There is no thing like standard. Album sales are weaker and weaker each year. You know that... so please.

Not everyone has the same selling standard like Madonna, so others maybe only have one of 2 mio. or 200k or whatever... You can't say that reaching sales of 8 mio. is hard in general: For some, it's easy, for others it's (almost) impossible, it's very subjective and depending on the artist.

I know that album sales get weaker and weaker but still when an album sells less than what is usual for an artist, you can hardly call it a success, can you? And if there are just 3 or 4 albums that are really successful in a year, then it's like that.
Plus, according to my calculation, flop means selling at the most 40% of this standard and come on, selling less than half of it is really bad, that's a fact, even if only a few artists managed to sell more this year.

[atbw13]

@upushme: I see your point, but I compare an album to what an artist is able to sell (his career standard) and less about what others do... It's because Rihanna has another standard than Madonna, Justin Bieber has another one than Lady Gaga and so on. But MDNA can be compared to Madonna's previous discography and therefore you can find out her standard and whether the new album can come up to it.

@truthless: I won't, because this method is good...

And the fact that the music industry is going through a slow death year after year doesn´t matter at all ?
I think your method would be great, if the music industry was still the same from 10 years ago.

[upushme]

Timmy, you cannot make comparisons with the past. The global market has changed. We had the vinyl era, the cd era, the download era and now we are in the concerts era.
- Madonna excelled in every era -
You can't expect that MDNA sells 5M in this era, it's like expecting ROL to sell 10M in vinyl.

[Timmy94]

@upushme: I see your point, but I compare an album to what an artist is able to sell (his career standard) and less about what others do... It's because Rihanna has another standard than Madonna, Justin Bieber has another one than Lady Gaga and so on. But MDNA can be compared to Madonna's previous discography and therefore you can find out her standard and whether the new album can come up to it.

@truthless: I won't, because this method is good...

And the fact that the music industry is going through a slow death year after year doesn´t matter at all ?
I think your method would be great, if the music industry was still the same from 10 years ago.

The thing is how to have one method that counts for all artists and in any situation?
We need one that clearly shows if an album flops but at the same time shows when an album is a sucess, or between both shores...

I thought the method would be good as I don't just take the average of all studio albums (in that case the old studio albums with the hiiiigh sales would really carry too much weight) but also 50% of the last studio album (meaning the 4 mio. of Hard Candy)...

[atbw13]

^ Well no one denies its underperformance but there´s no way to affirm that a successful album would be a 8 million seller.
Maybe you should take the artist´s average and factor in the percentage of sales decline into the final result, then , maybe you´d get a more accurate average for new album releases.

[Timmy94]

^ Well no one denies its underperformance but there´s no way to affirm that a successful album would be a 8 million seller.
Maybe you should take the artist´s average and factor in the percentage of sales decline into the final result, then , maybe you´d get a more accurate average for new album releases.

Sounds good, OK, then I'll do it next time...
What do you mean with the sales decline? Of each year or how?

[atbw13]

^ Well no one denies its underperformance but there´s no way to affirm that a successful album would be a 8 million seller.
Maybe you should take the artist´s average and factor in the percentage of sales decline into the final result, then , maybe you´d get a more accurate average for new album releases.

Sounds good, OK, then I'll do it next time...
What do you mean with the sales decline? Of each year or how?

How much has the musical industry shrunk since the begining of the digital era ? I´m not an expert, but I mean the average of album sales decline in the last, let´s say , 7 years ... I don´t know, 50 % , 40 % ...

[upushme]

Yes, the album is underperforming if we consider the chart trajectory of Hard Candy, but MDNA has only 3 months. It's still a little baby in the cradle. Let it grow
We have a new single arriving, hopefully a forth one and in some country the tour effect brought the album back in the top10. Moreover if the tour hits Japan and Australia, we can expect a big increase of sales over there.

[Timmy94]

^ Well no one denies its underperformance but there´s no way to affirm that a successful album would be a 8 million seller.
Maybe you should take the artist´s average and factor in the percentage of sales decline into the final result, then , maybe you´d get a more accurate average for new album releases.

Sounds good, OK, then I'll do it next time...
What do you mean with the sales decline? Of each year or how?

How much has the musical industry shrunk since the begining of the digital era ? I´m not an expert, but I mean the average of album sales decline in the last, let´s say , 7 years ... I don´t know, 50 % , 40 % ...

OK, then it can be easily edited:
0-10% (0 - 0.8 mio.): fail
10-20% (0.8 mio. - 1.6 mio.): flop
20-30% (1.6 mio. - 2.4 mio.): underperformance
30-40% (2.4 mio.- 3.2 mio.): moderate
40-50% (3.2 mio. - 4 mio.): OK

[alek]

maroon how old are you , 5 years old i guess ,it doesn t matter how many people has a country,mexico has almost twice the population than italy and the certifications are the same in these countries,as well russia has more population than italy and in italy artists sell more albums ,its about the economic power that a country has ,what about china , international artists have sold more in japan than china ,and china s population is like 1,400,000,000 people

MDNA is 5xp in russia, and gold in holland and still selling, can you get it ?, again my estimations are so close to the true..


another example gold in germany is 100,000, gold in russia is 5,000 ,russia has more population than germany , hope you can understand...

My goodness, of course it's not all about population when you select random countries across the world. The point is that both Germany, the UK and France have similar economic situation as the Netherlands thus are comparable when it comes to their market size using the population factor. The same factor won't work at all in different economies like Mexico and Russia. You must be 5 years old if you think I'd compare markets with such a big diversity to each other based solely on population ratio.

uk ,Holland , France ,Italy , hasn t the same economic situation , Italy is now in a hard economic situation , but the people still selling albums , mexico now has a better economic situation than italy, but madonna has sold more in Italy than mexico or holland , you can t explain it .. germany is not in the same economic situation than Italy, and in Italy, MDNA has sold more than in Germany. MDNA is platium in Italy and only gold in Germany , you must consider how many fans madonna has in some countries...sorry but you can t explain it

[MadgeAngel]

Any Chart news?

[upushme]

Any Chart news?

We're waiting fot a tour effect in Germany, but on iTunes MDNA is a ghost. Maybe the video of TUTR could have helped, but it's too early for the premiere.

[Timmy94]

The tour effect in Germany, if there is going to be any, will be seen earliest on the chart in 2 weeks .

[alek]

Any Chart news?

still waiting for Mexico, any uk news ?

[alek]

Too much drama here!

Guys, it depends on the perspective you look at it. Of course 1.3 million sold in 3 months nowadays is nothing to be ashamed of neither a flop

BUT.....

If we consider it's Madonna who we are talking about and how it freefell from most charts and even left some main markets in just 10 weeks, it's notoriously nosedived worst than all of her previous albums. Plus the failure of the 2 singles so far...

I think both opinions are valid.

MDNA has sold more than 1.3 in 3 months by far...

[alek]

The tour effect in Germany, if there is going to be any, will be seen earliest on the chart in 2 weeks .

i hope that

[alek]

to end this drama..

nichu estimations at april 22, MDNA 1.6 m , 4 sure at that time , 1.6 m shipped, but till now for sure MDNA has sold like 1.6 m in the whole world.., at that time i said what ? but now im so agree..





http://www.ukmix.org/forums/viewtopic.p ... start=3800

[thebigham]

This thread is a mess AGAIN because certain posters here refuse to learn.

IGNORE Timmy!!!

alek, stop posting 3-4 times a page!!!