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Adele :: The "30" Era

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  • So the relative drop from 25's to 30's opening is about the same as the from Divide's to ='s opening in the US. Unlike the UK, Ed Sheeran is not as popular as Adele in the US, but it surely gives an impression of what's to be expected in thr current market.

    Previous diamond albums (last 20 years) and their follow-ups' openings:
    Adele - 21 / 3.38 mio
    Taylor Swift - Fearless / 1.05 mio
    Norah Jones - Come Away With Me / 1.02 mio.
    Eminem - The Eminem Show / 710k (midweek release)
    Usher - Confessions / 430k
    Nickelback - All the Right Reasons / 330k
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    • Originally posted by thebigham View Post

      iTunes is dead.

      The New York Times said 1 million:

      https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/17/a...-album-30.html

      Adele’s label, Columbia, is keeping mum about commercial projections. But the buzz in the business is that the album’s “equivalent sales” figure — a new metric that reconciles old-fashioned album purchases with song-by-song clicks on streaming services — will easily exceed one million in its first week out, and could go far higher.
      Yes, thank you. That’s the one I was referring to. How is it possible they said: “will easily exceed 1 million first week” when the projections are even below 900k. I don’t like this at all…

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      • US numbers are so-so - but I just have to reflect on the state of the music industry and what everyone else is pulling, and you realise these numbers are just utterly tremendous. Expectations are so damn high for her.

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        • Also hits are predicting 600k to 700k pure sales which is amazing in my view, so I think 850k in total might actually be slightly to low, think it will push 900k to 1 million personally

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          • Originally posted by Wayne View Post
            US numbers are so-so - but I just have to reflect on the state of the music industry and what everyone else is pulling, and you realise these numbers are just utterly tremendous. Expectations are so damn high for her.
            I guess at the end we all put our hopes on her being the last 1M opener in the US. I feel like with a more intensive promotion, she could’ve made it.

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            • Also don’t forget hits first prediction for 25 was 900k but obviously that ended up doing 3.3 million

              that won’t happen again, but my point is they could underestimate too

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              • Originally posted by Adelefan2125 View Post

                Yes, thank you. That’s the one I was referring to. How is it possible they said: “will easily exceed 1 million first week” when the projections are even below 900k. I don’t like this at all…
                Because the article was written before the album came out... Up until an hour ago, I think most of us expected 1 million in the USA.

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                • Her team probably will try to push 1 million units

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                  • Originally posted by Choley View Post
                    Her team probably will try to push 1 million units
                    This is what I’m hoping. She’s with Columbia now. They have the resources to push this and they definitely want bragging rights too.

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                    • Adele has the top 9 spots on Apple Music uk! Amazing consistency for the album

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                      • Will be really interesting to see what this album reaches WW when all is said and done. I predict between ten to fifteen million.

                        What does everyone else think ?
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                        • RIAA Platinum status this week. Multi-Platinum status before the year ends. 4 times Platinum in the near future/end of the 30 era. Diamond status in the long run though?

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                          • Originally posted by InFamous View Post
                            Will be really interesting to see what this album reaches WW when all is said and done. I predict between ten to fifteen million.

                            What does everyone else think ?
                            Surely 15m is to much with these openings.

                            Either way I expected crazy Vinyl sales and both UK and US openings are lower then I expected.

                            Her Us numbers are similar to Folklore and just like 200 to 300k below Red TV ver..

                            I expected easily 1m and maybe 1.25m at least.

                            I wonder if the lead single being less hype or 25 following 21 was the reason 25 was pretty impressive because didnt expect this big of a fall off.
                            Last edited by wotad; Mon November 22, 2021, 22:45.
                            R.I.P Amy Winehouse :3

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                            • Originally posted by toby-charts View Post
                              RIAA Platinum status this week. Multi-Platinum status before the year ends. 4 times Platinum in the near future/end of the 30 era. Diamond status in the long run though?
                              Not a chance in hell for Diamond. The album won’t even sell 2M pure when it’s all said and done. I see it taping out at 5xPLATINUM max.

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                              • Originally posted by Adelefan2125 View Post

                                Not a chance in hell for Diamond. The album won’t even sell 2M pure when it’s all said and done. I see it taping out at 5xPLATINUM max.
                                It is unlikely, but never say never. It depends on how the era is marketed. Will it be frontloaded or an 18-month-spectacle? The era has just started, so it's a bit premature to assume where it could end when all is said and done.
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                                • Originally posted by Britneysdream View Post
                                  Also hits are predicting 600k to 700k pure sales which is amazing in my view, so I think 850k in total might actually be slightly to low, think it will push 900k to 1 million personally
                                  absolutely. I don't understand the bickering and the picking apart of her sales predictions (so far)... Those results and predictions are out of the world outstanding.

                                  The music industry in 2021 is in shambles... and yet Adele continues to sell as if it's 1999.

                                  I am amazed by the outcome and predictions. She will sell something in the region of 2,5 million units in week 1 globally. Unheard-of success (again).
                                  My Chart

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                                  • Originally posted by InFamous View Post
                                    Will be really interesting to see what this album reaches WW when all is said and done. I predict between ten to fifteen million.

                                    What does everyone else think ?
                                    I'd agree on 10million+. Which would make it the biggest selling album of the decade, I think.
                                    My Chart

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                                    • All Adele’s albums are in the top 10 on uk iTunes

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                                      • Originally posted by stevyy View Post

                                        absolutely. I don't understand the bickering and the picking apart of her sales predictions (so far)... Those results and predictions are out of the world outstanding.

                                        The music industry in 2021 is in shambles... and yet Adele continues to sell as if it's 1999.

                                        I am amazed by the outcome and predictions. She will sell something in the region of 2,5 million units in week 1 globally. Unheard-of success (again).
                                        She is being torn apart by a certain fanbase elsewhere. It must be sad to be a stan of one of the most successful artists in history but still need to be bitter and hateful about another artist. Dont know why i expected anything else though, that fanbase will be the same for evermore i fear.
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                                        • Originally posted by InFamous View Post

                                          She is being torn apart by a certain fanbase elsewhere. It must be sad to be a stan of one of the most successful artists in history but still need to be bitter and hateful about another artist. Dont know why i expected anything else though, that fanbase will be the same for evermore i fear.
                                          It's just crazy looking at what is happening on MetaCritic as well. The insecurity is real. 30 will most likely win AOTY at the Grammys too.
                                          My Chart

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                                          • Originally posted by stevyy View Post

                                            It's just crazy looking at what is happening on MetaCritic as well. The insecurity is real. 30 will most likely win AOTY at the Grammys too.
                                            I think that fanbase is still bitter from when Adele won the Golden Globe over their fave. But yeah their hatred for Adele is not normal.
                                            Zero tolerance for : bigotry, racism, wilful ignorance.
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                                            • The HDD projection is at least 400k lower than I expected.
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                                              • I guess the HDD predictions were kinda off, since they said she will sell some 500k on pure sales, but according to Billboard she has already sold over 500k pure in the first 3 days. This is good news at last! https://t.co/JJZxgqhB7u

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                                                • When will HDD release their second predictions?

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                                                  • Originally posted by Choley View Post
                                                    When will HDD release their second predictions?
                                                    They should normally post them tonight.

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