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  • #31
    Maybe we can re-work my estimations:

    9,400,000 - 1994 - All I want for Christmas Is You
    3,800,000 - 1995 - One Sweet Day
    3,700,000 - 1994 - Without You
    3,300,000 - 1995 - Fantasy
    2,800,000 - 1996 - Always be my Baby
    2,600,000 - 1993 - Hero
    2,500,000 - 2005 - We Belong Together
    2,400,000 - 1998 - My All
    2,300,000 - 1999 - Heartbreaker
    2,250,000 - 2008 - Touch my Body
    2,100,000 - 2009 - Obsessed
    2,050,000 - 1997 - Honey
    1,700,000 - 1993 - Dreamlover
    1,680,000 - 2013 - #Beautiful
    1,500,000 - 1994 - Endless Love
    1,500,000 - 1992 - I'll Be There
    1,430,000 - 1998 - When you Believe
    1,370,000 - 1998 - I Still Believe
    1,325,000 - 2005 - Shake It Off
    1.300,000 - 1990 - Vision of Love
    1,100,000 - 2000 - Thank God I Found You
    1,000,000 - 1991 - Emotions
    900,000 - 1990 - Love Takes Time
    850,000 - 1991 - Someday
    800,000 - 2005 - It's Like That
    750,000 - 2008 - Bye Bye
    750,000 - 2001 - Loverboy
    750,000 - 1992 - Can't Let Go
    705,000 - 2005 - Don't Forget About Us
    700,000 - 1994 - Anytime you Need a Friend
    590,000 - 2000 - Against All Odds
    500,000 - 2003 - I Know what you Want
    500,000 - 2000 - Can't Take That Away
    500,000 - 1992 - Make It Happen
    450,000 - 1991 - I don't Wanna Cry
    425,000 - 2002 - Through The Rain
    380,000 - 1994 - Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)
    240,000 - 2009 - I want to Know what Love Is
    220,000 - 1996 - Open Arms
    200,000 - 2006 - Say Somethin'
    195,000 - 1997 - Butterfly
    165,000 - 2008 - I'll Be Lovin' You Long Time
    150,000 - 2009 - My Love
    150,000 - 2006 - Fly Like a Bird
    140,000 - 2010 - Oh Santa!
    120,000 - 2001 - Never Too Far/Hero
    100,000 - 2012 - Triumphant
    100,000 - 1996 - Forever
    100,000 - 1991 - There's Got To Be a Way
    90,000 - 2010 - Up Out My Face
    80,000 - 2015 - Infinity
    80,000 - 1997 - Breakdown
    75,000 - 2014 - You're Mine (Eternal)
    70,000 - 2009 - Betcha Gon' Know
    70,000 - 2002 - Boy (I Need You)
    70,000 - 2001 - Don't Stop
    65,000 - 1998 - Sweetheart
    50,000 - 2009 - H.A.T.E.U.
    50,000 - 2008 - I Stay In Love
    50,000 - 2003 - Bringin' On The Heartbreak
    40,000 - 2009 - 100%
    My Chart

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    • #32
      All I Want For Christmas Is you USA chart run is complete?

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by freeme
        All I Want For Christmas Is you USA chart run is complete?
        yes, all weeks inside the H100 are accounted for. I think, I hope I find my tally it's somewhere here on ukmix - that it spent 12 weeks inside the top 50 this decade.
        My Chart

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by stevyy
          Originally posted by freeme
          All I Want For Christmas Is you USA chart run is complete?
          yes, all weeks inside the H100 are accounted for. I think, I hope I find my tally it's somewhere here on ukmix - that it spent 12 weeks inside the top 50 this decade.
          I have this, but probably is not correct

          83-x-29-25-21-x-26-27-26-x-50-40-35-x-26-22-18-11-x

          Comment


          • #35
            I hope everbody is ok seeing I'm staring with my Asian figues.

            It is quite an unconventional approach but due to Mariah's specific and outstanding relevance in Asia, i do think that I am allowed to put special emphasis on this continent by beginning with it before turning towards Europe.

            Comment


            • #36
              Great work with the US and Asia market numbers Luminator! Some of your estimates are conservative, but that's no problem!

              By the way, you've repeated All figures have been professionally estimated by both acknowledging the size of the Malaysian market according to IFPI sources of Southeast-Asian markets in the Billboard magazine in the 1990s and deducing figures from what Mariah was able to sell with #1's, which is confirmed of having sold 250,000 units throughout the country. for all your Southeast Asian countries estimates.

              I think your Thailand estimations are a tad too low, but we never know if Mariah ever made it big there though. Also, do you happen to have chart runs for Taiwan, South Korea and other Asian markets?

              Also, don't you think that the 3,6m figure for #1's is way too outdated? That figure was reported during early 1999. I know catalog sales in Japan are dismissal, but considering that both MB and DD are now eligible for another certification, i don't find it wrong for #1's to be at around 3,8m. Perhaps it's close to 4m, but since we have no info, we might as well be conservative.

              Looking forward for your Indian estimations and especially China estimations (how on earth can you estimate Chinese sales ) I don't recall any sales info regarding Mariah in India. But keep up the good work! Also, there are a lot of Asian countries you can do like Philippines.
              MC....In The Place To Be

              Comment


              • #37
                By the way, I see you've used stevvy's singles estimations for the front page. I like them, though there are some i have in mind that are different. Perhaps you will consider using some of mine?

                Hero (1993)
                US: 1,850,000 (1,15m physical + 700K digital)
                Europe: 750,000
                UK: 290,000
                France: 170,000
                Germany: 135,000
                Oceania: 100,000
                Australia: 90,000
                NZ: 10,000
                Asia: 150,000
                Rest: 50,000
                Worldwide: 2,900,000

                Fantasy (1995)
                US: 2,300,000 (1,625m physical + 675K digital)
                Europe: 775,000
                UK: 300,000
                France: 165,000
                Germany: 155,000
                Oceania: 125,000
                Australia: 110,000
                NZ: 15,000
                Asia: 225,000
                Rest: 75,000
                Worldwide: 3,500,000

                My All (1998)
                US: 1,800,000 (1,5m phyiscal + 300K digital)
                Europe: 640,000
                UK: 175,000
                France: 200,000
                Germany: 135,000
                Oceania: 35,000
                Australia: 30,000
                NZ: 5,000
                Asia: 100,000
                Rest: 75,000
                Worldwide: 2,650,000

                *All figures are rounded

                You decide which figure to chose Luminator. There are other singles i think are either over-estimated or under-estimated compared to the one in the 1st page. I'll post my estimations for those other singles tomorrow. If anyone wants to correct me, please feel free to do so!
                MC....In The Place To Be

                Comment


                • #38
                  Asia is done! Bown down to the queen

                  Thanks for the advices

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by goddessriah

                    I think your Thailand estimations are a tad too low, but we never know if Mariah ever made it big there though. Also, do you happen to have chart runs for Taiwan, South Korea and other Asian markets?
                    I was a bit unsure about Thailand because we really don't have a lot of information. :-?
                    Originally posted by goddessriah
                    Also, don't you think that the 3,6m figure for #1's is way too outdated? That figure was reported during early 1999. I know catalog sales in Japan are dismissal, but considering that both MB and DD are now eligible for another certification, i don't find it wrong for #1's to be at around 3,8m. Perhaps it's close to 4m, but since we have no info, we might as well be conservative.
                    For #1's, I want to wait for MJDangerous estimation and will then update the figure. He seems to have great knowledge about the Japanese market. But i agree that the figure seems to be outdated.

                    Originally posted by goddessriah
                    Looking forward for your Indian estimations and especially China estimations (how on earth can you estimate Chinese sales ) I don't recall any sales info regarding Mariah in India. But keep up the good work! Also, there are a lot of Asian countries you can do like Philippines.
                    For China and India, i have been working with IFPI figures and other reports. I added them under "special mentions" because the margin of error is a lot bigger on these two cases.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Luminator, what about Philippines? Surely, it must be a bigger market (at least for Mariah) than India?
                      MC....In The Place To Be

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by goddessriah
                        Luminator, what about Philippines? Surely, it must be a bigger market (at least for Mariah) than India?
                        Yeah, i still have to add it. Thanks

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Hi. Great post

                          Just to add my two cents:

                          11. GREATEST HITS (#52/12w)
                          (22/12/2001): *52*-|05/01/2002|-74-81-94-110-123-128-145-168-164-187
                          (Re 03/05/2008): 80
                          I'm pretty sure it re entered the BB 200 during Idol era too
                          http://oi42.tinypic.com/2m3lnpv.jpg

                          Follow me on LastFM: http://www.lastfm.es/user/S-Yair

                          www.instagram.com/sebastiansuaid/

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                          • #43
                            gawd her stats look fine in Asia. If only RIAK and RIAJ would release a statement about her sales since their last certifications.

                            BTW I've always read that Glitter was the best selling album of 2001 in China. If only I could find the press release again.
                            My Chart

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Absolutely fantastic work with the Asiain estimates Luminator, especially considering we have very limited or obsolete information about Mariah in the majority of Asia.

                              33m+ albums sold in Asia is a fantasic result. And since Luminator's numbers are very conservative, no one can dare blast us if we add a million of two into her Asian album sales, especially considering we have 0 info on a lot of Asian markets.

                              How does Mariah compare to other international artists though? She's probably the biggest selling solo internatinal artist there. What about others? I've heard that both Celine and Madonna sold close to 20m albums in Asia, while Michael and the Beatles must have done extrodionary numbers there as well.
                              MC....In The Place To Be

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Great work


                                What abour Streaming 'sales'?
                                YOU cant blame nobody but YOU

                                Comment


                                • #46
                                  Good luck with the thread.
                                  Whitney Houston

                                  Comment


                                  • #47
                                    Hey Luminator, i see you've started doing your album breakdowns on the 1st page. Nice work, though there are some info i'd like to talk about.

                                    1. Mariah Carey (1990)
                                    >> South and Middle America: ~300.000
                                    Woah! Don't you think this is too much :-? 300K is a lot, especially when Mariah debuted, i doubt she was big in Latin America. Moreover, we have 0 info there. Let's say that this album shipped 50K (probably more) in Brazil, based I say the album has shipped 100K-150K there max!

                                    >> Africa & Middle East: ~300.000
                                    Again, this is way too much! I say around 100K-150K as well.

                                    Australia: 350.000 (2xP|#6/57w)
                                    This info always confuses me. I know Mariah received a plaque of this back in 1998, but the ARIA says only 2XP. It has a very impressive chart run, and it ended up being the 6th best seller of the year! I say the 140K is probably too low, but 350K, while possible, we can't really confirm, To be safe, I suggest 250K, with the album being at least 1 platinum certification under-certified.

                                    >> Europe: ~1.175.000
                                    MJD last had the debut album's European sales at 1,150,000. I don't know if has adjusted them since, but his figures were pretty outdated. He had UK at 300K, France at 75K etc. Also, there are some countries where he left out, and for those countries, they add up to 150K outside of the main markets in Europe. IMO, 1,2-1,25m should be more accurate than 1,175m

                                    Your other sales are fine. To sum up , I believe the debut album should be at around 13,3m worldwide. I know it is below what MJD has estimated (13,5), but we can never be sure, can we? I will post my other suggestions for other albums later. Hope you will consider them.
                                    MC....In The Place To Be

                                    Comment


                                    • #48
                                      Mariah Carey, Emotions and Unplugged can only be estimated because while they were no BIG deals outside the US initially, they all benefitted from Music Box and picked up sales in 1993-1995 because they were also heavily advertised in the Music Box booklet. Speaking of South America and Europe. I know for a fact that her pre Music Box albums have all picked up when Music Box smashed in 1994. I wouldn't give too much about certifications especially when they are 20 years old or were awarded close to the release.

                                      I know it is kind of unimaginable how catalogue albums worked in the 1990s, but they did. We don't have that in that extend anymore.
                                      My Chart

                                      Comment


                                      • #49
                                        Yeah, her earlier albums must have picked up a lot during her peak in 1993-1996.

                                        Still, I'm quite skeptical about the African figures. 300K is a big deal considering the small market size there. And for her earlier albums to be so close in sales in Africa compared to Music Box (400K)?

                                        Also, regarding Music Box, Luminator, Stevvy, what do you think are Music Box's figures in Brazil. Do you accept the widely reported 800K. Obviously, it is much more than the 100K it was certified for. But by how much? All we know is that Music Box has definitely shipped 500K in the entire South American continent when the Spanish version of Hero was released, according to a Billboard article (though I can't find it now) 1m is a good estimate for the South American continent (perhaps even more?)
                                        MC....In The Place To Be

                                        Comment


                                        • #50
                                          well, i fail to believe that Music Box only sold 100k in Brazil when the album literally slayed in all other countries and continents:

                                          11m - North America
                                          8,0m - Europe
                                          5,2m - Asia
                                          1,0m - Oceania

                                          I simply fail to see how South America could exclude themselves from her domination. Argentina, Mexico and Brazil are the cornerstones of the South American market. There have been albums selling 10x of what Music Box supposedly sold by certification there. I think we could and should add 30% to what it is certified there just for the margin of error, ie 300k in Brazil is absolutely fine, and 100k+ in each Argentina and especially Mexico are a given. it would reflect the general appeal of Music Box and the regional taste which was not reflected by Music Box.
                                          My Chart

                                          Comment


                                          • #51
                                            Originally posted by goddessriah

                                            Still, I'm quite skeptical about the African figures. 300K is a big deal considering the small market size there. And for her earlier albums to be so close in sales in Africa compared to Music Box (400K)?
                                            Please note that the category also includes the Middle East plus the whole continent of Africa. I don't think that a figure of 300.000 is out of discussion considering catalog sales in 1994 and all of the catalog sales + downloads up until 2016.

                                            I think one shouldn't make Mariah smaller than she is.

                                            Comment


                                            • #52
                                              Originally posted by goddessriah

                                              1. Mariah Carey (1990)
                                              >> South and Middle America: ~300.000
                                              Woah! Don't you think this is too much :-? 300K is a lot, especially when Mariah debuted, i doubt she was big in Latin America. Moreover, we have 0 info there. Let's say that this album shipped 50K (probably more) in Brazil, based I say the album has shipped 100K-150K there max!

                                              >> Africa & Middle East: ~300.000
                                              Again, this is way too much! I say around 100K-150K as well.

                                              Australia: 350.000 (2xP|#6/57w)
                                              This info always confuses me. I know Mariah received a plaque of this back in 1998, but the ARIA says only 2XP. It has a very impressive chart run, and it ended up being the 6th best seller of the year! I say the 140K is probably too low, but 350K, while possible, we can't really confirm, To be safe, I suggest 250K, with the album being at least 1 platinum certification under-certified.

                                              >> Europe: ~1.175.000
                                              MJD last had the debut album's European sales at 1,150,000. I don't know if has adjusted them since, but his figures were pretty outdated. He had UK at 300K, France at 75K etc. Also, there are some countries where he left out, and for those countries, they add up to 150K outside of the main markets in Europe. IMO, 1,2-1,25m should be more accurate than 1,175m

                                              Your other sales are fine. To sum up , I believe the debut album should be at around 13,3m worldwide. I know it is below what MJD has estimated (13,5), but we can never be sure, can we? I will post my other suggestions for other albums later. Hope you will consider them.
                                              I lowered the figure for South and Middle America to 250.000 for her debut, but i refuse to go lower considering catalog sales.

                                              Africa & Middle East for her debut was a type actually, i had a figure of 200.000 and corrected it!

                                              I find the Australian figure to be trustworthy because the album had a chart run comparable to "Daydream" which is certified 5xPlatinum.

                                              I might think about updating the Europe total at the end. By the way, - different to what you posted 2 days ago in the old thread - her debut is actually even certified in Spain. I have a pdf-document which clearly shows that the album went gold there!

                                              Comment


                                              • #53
                                                Also, I see you've posted the breakdown for Merry Christmas. I always believed this album has outsold the debut album. Here are my comments on your breakdown for Merry Christmas.

                                                First of all, where did you find those South American figures? I've never seen any certifications or reports about this album. 200K in Brazil is kinda high, considering we've received information that the huge Daydream album only shipped 100-150K in Brazil. 100K in Argentina is also skeptical as well.

                                                For your European figures, I think it's way too low.

                                                Merry Christmas in Europe
                                                UK: 300,000 (290K in hard sales)
                                                France: 75,000
                                                Germany: 325,000 (MJD had it at 300K a decade ago)
                                                Italy: 300,000
                                                Spain: 75,000
                                                Netherlands: 175,000 (MJD figure)
                                                Sweden: 100,000 (MJD)
                                                Switzerland: 40,000 (MJD)
                                                Norway: 50,000
                                                Austria: 35,000 (MJD)
                                                Denmark: 55,000 (MJD)
                                                Total from 10 countries: 1,530,000

                                                Let's not forget that some of MJD's figures are a decade old. Back then, he even had the album at 1,6m. IMO, it should be in the 1,7-1,8m range.

                                                Here's my personal breakdown of Merry Christmas in the most conservative way possible:

                                                North America: 6,550,000
                                                US: 6,250,000
                                                Canada: 300,000

                                                South America: 200,000
                                                Brazil: 75,000
                                                Argentina: 40,000
                                                Mexico: 50,000

                                                Europe: 1,800,000
                                                see above for countries breakdown

                                                Asia: 4,500,000
                                                Japan: 2,800,000
                                                South Korea: 625,000
                                                Taiwan: 325,000
                                                Singapore: 80,000
                                                Hong Kong: 80,000
                                                Philippines: 120,000
                                                China: 100,000

                                                Oceania: 455,000
                                                Australia: 425,000
                                                NZ: 30,000

                                                Africa: 200,000

                                                Worldwide: 13,705,000

                                                By the way Luminator, I realized that your Singapore sales are much higher than they are certified for. Can you explain to me why you did this?
                                                MC....In The Place To Be

                                                Comment


                                                • #54
                                                  You guys are doing a great job with this thread so far. OP is looking really good!

                                                  Comment


                                                  • #55
                                                    Originally posted by Instinct
                                                    You guys are doing a great job with this thread so far. OP is looking really good!
                                                    Thank you so much!

                                                    Let's be real, Mariah was in desperate need of a better thread!

                                                    Comment


                                                    • #56
                                                      Originally posted by goddessriah

                                                      By the way Luminator, I realized that your Singapore sales are much higher than they are certified for. Can you explain to me why you did this?
                                                      I deducted that from my own knowledge of the market size and the fact that we have information what other big singers were able to shift there (namingly Celine Dion and Michael Jackson).

                                                      I came to the conclusion that Mariah has considerably outsold her pure certifications there.

                                                      I might increase the European total for "Merry Christmas" due to your good arguments! Thanks!

                                                      Comment


                                                      • #57
                                                        Hey Luminator! Here to give more comments on your album estimations.

                                                        MTV Unplugged (1992)
                                                        I think your 1,26m estimation for Europe is a tad bit too low. Here are the album's biggest market there:
                                                        UK: 250,000
                                                        France: 225,000
                                                        Germany: 275,000
                                                        Netherlands: 250,000 (It spent 100+ weeks on the chart! I wouldn't be surprised if this album is eligible for another certification)
                                                        =1,000,000 from 4 markets alone! 260K for the rest seem to be too low. There's also:
                                                        Italy: 100,000
                                                        Spain: 25,000
                                                        Sweden: 20,000 (MJD)
                                                        Switzerland: 25,000
                                                        =1,170,000 from 8 markets alone! I truly believe it sold some more copies in other countries that adds up more than just 1,26m. In fact, MJD had the EU total at 1,29m a decade ago! IMO, 1,35m should be more accurate. 1,4m shouldn't even be out of the question! But since we're being safe, 1,35m sounds more reasonable.

                                                        Daydream (1995)
                                                        Again, I believe your European estimations are a tad bit too low. MJD last had it at 1,1m in the UK. But later, we all agreed that that was way too high. However, 800K is a bit too low as well. It was certified 2XP just after a few months of release! Also, Wayne once calculated Daydream's sales to be around 850K in the UK. If it sold 760K back in 1996, 800K in hard sales should not be out of question in 2016! Add in club sales, 850K, or perhaps 900K should not be out of the question. After all, this case is similar to Merry Christmas, which has sold around 290K, but has yet to be certified platinum in the UK.

                                                        IMO, my personal estimation for Daydream:
                                                        UK: 875,000
                                                        France: 675,000
                                                        Germany: 650,000 (MJD)
                                                        Italy: 250,000
                                                        Spain: 225,000 (MJD)
                                                        Netherlands: 200,000
                                                        Sweden: 100,000 (MJD has it at 40K, but based on it's chart run, it certainly shipped more than that)
                                                        Switzerland: 75,000
                                                        Belgium: 50,000
                                                        Austria: 40,000 (MJD)
                                                        Norway: 40,000 (MJD)
                                                        Poland: 50,000 (MJD)
                                                        Denmark: 70,000 (MJD)
                                                        Rest: 450K+ (MJD. by deducing his 3,86m total to all the countries he estimated)
                                                        Total: 3,750,000

                                                        Also, regarding Daydream's Australian sales, I once found a list of best selling albums in Australia, and remember they had Daydream at 400K, and MB at 860K. I can't find the link anymore, but there's an ATRL thread that reports the same thing: http://atrl.net/forums/showthread.php?t=349298

                                                        I'll comment on more of your albums estimations sooner. Also, I'll be glad to help you with some of Mariah's singles estimations are individual breakdown!
                                                        MC....In The Place To Be

                                                        Comment


                                                        • #58
                                                          I upgrated #1's US total from 5,6 to 5,7 million! Do thinks it's ok? I did so because we finally had evidence that the album was also available on the Columbia House music club and should have sold similiar to its BMG performance (~1 million) there.

                                                          Comment


                                                          • #59
                                                            Originally posted by Luminator
                                                            I upgrated #1's US total from 5,6 to 5,7 million! Do thinks it's ok? I did so because we finally had evidence that the album was also available on the Columbia House music club and should have sold similiar to its BMG performance (~1 million) there.
                                                            Definitely! Since Mariah was part of Columbia music, her sales must be huge there! I wouldn't be surprised if it was much closer to 6m as well.

                                                            Though i think you've downgraded her Asian sales. Still, it depends on how many copies #1's sold in Japan. If it's closer to 4m, then the Asian total will increase significantly. I like your European estimations though. I've always though it sold more than 3m copies, compared to the always reported 2,8m.

                                                            Butterfly estimations are perfect and on point Luminator! For Europe, I have it at 1,5m, but a 50K difference isn't really that big. In the end, that album is at the 10-10,5m range, while #1's should be in the 16m range.
                                                            MC....In The Place To Be

                                                            Comment


                                                            • #60
                                                              I disagree with the sales for Merry Christmas in Italy. I mean the album was certified 2xP pretty soon after release and has since been also certified gold for its digital sales which mean that the album was or still is in demand, it charts every season on the official italian albums chart (it's the only country after the US as a matter of fact).

                                                              There was a rumour, idk if anybody can confirm this, but it is believed to have sold/shipped way more than 2xP in its physical form alone. I read numbers ranging from 260-280k in 2005.

                                                              I think 350k is more reasonable.

                                                              Also, its British shipment. Going by a shipment of 300k is very conservative. VERY. It has sold 290k and I believe it must have shipped at least 350k as well because we have no information about sales not tracked by music week.

                                                              and lastly, Germany. 300k would be a conservative number. Trust me, it IS well stocked here every season. I see it everywhere. It is also quite popular on itunes and amazon. It literally made the top 100 on amazon between 2005-2008.

                                                              My estimate for the 2 decade old certification is 350k

                                                              Italy: 350k
                                                              Germany: 350k
                                                              UK: 350k
                                                              ** shipped

                                                              especially in germany, we cannot trust chartruns because universal and sony have suppressed some of her singles from ever entering the singles chart despite big enough sales (or revenue) to make them, best example is IWTKWLI. I do believe that Merry Christmas is massively underrated estimations-wise. It also appeared in special box-sets with other albums of her catalogie (available in supermarkets here like Lidl or Aldi) - sales which probably never counted towards media control. It was also re-released in Germany multiple times - as a vinyl and as a dual disc.

                                                              #1's also has multiple editions released: standard (1998), platinum (2002), Gold Edition (2005). It could even be at 400k and we wouldn't know.
                                                              My Chart

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