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Still, I'm quite skeptical about the African figures. 300K is a big deal considering the small market size there. And for her earlier albums to be so close in sales in Africa compared to Music Box (400K)?
Please note that the category also includes the Middle East plus the whole continent of Africa. I don't think that a figure of 300.000 is out of discussion considering catalog sales in 1994 and all of the catalog sales + downloads up until 2016.
I think one shouldn't make Mariah smaller than she is.
1. Mariah Carey (1990) >> South and Middle America: ~300.000 Woah! Don't you think this is too much :-? 300K is a lot, especially when Mariah debuted, i doubt she was big in Latin America. Moreover, we have 0 info there. Let's say that this album shipped 50K (probably more) in Brazil, based I say the album has shipped 100K-150K there max!
>> Africa & Middle East: ~300.000
Again, this is way too much! I say around 100K-150K as well.
Australia: 350.000 (2xP|#6/57w)
This info always confuses me. I know Mariah received a plaque of this back in 1998, but the ARIA says only 2XP. It has a very impressive chart run, and it ended up being the 6th best seller of the year! I say the 140K is probably too low, but 350K, while possible, we can't really confirm, To be safe, I suggest 250K, with the album being at least 1 platinum certification under-certified.
>> Europe: ~1.175.000
MJD last had the debut album's European sales at 1,150,000. I don't know if has adjusted them since, but his figures were pretty outdated. He had UK at 300K, France at 75K etc. Also, there are some countries where he left out, and for those countries, they add up to 150K outside of the main markets in Europe. IMO, 1,2-1,25m should be more accurate than 1,175m
Your other sales are fine. To sum up , I believe the debut album should be at around 13,3m worldwide. I know it is below what MJD has estimated (13,5), but we can never be sure, can we? I will post my other suggestions for other albums later. Hope you will consider them.
I lowered the figure for South and Middle America to 250.000 for her debut, but i refuse to go lower considering catalog sales.
Africa & Middle East for her debut was a type actually, i had a figure of 200.000 and corrected it!
I find the Australian figure to be trustworthy because the album had a chart run comparable to "Daydream" which is certified 5xPlatinum.
I might think about updating the Europe total at the end. By the way, - different to what you posted 2 days ago in the old thread - her debut is actually even certified in Spain. I have a pdf-document which clearly shows that the album went gold there!
Also, I see you've posted the breakdown for Merry Christmas. I always believed this album has outsold the debut album. Here are my comments on your breakdown for Merry Christmas.
First of all, where did you find those South American figures? I've never seen any certifications or reports about this album. 200K in Brazil is kinda high, considering we've received information that the huge Daydream album only shipped 100-150K in Brazil. 100K in Argentina is also skeptical as well.
For your European figures, I think it's way too low.
Merry Christmas in Europe
UK: 300,000 (290K in hard sales)
France: 75,000
Germany: 325,000 (MJD had it at 300K a decade ago)
Italy: 300,000
Spain: 75,000
Netherlands: 175,000 (MJD figure)
Sweden: 100,000 (MJD)
Switzerland: 40,000 (MJD)
Norway: 50,000
Austria: 35,000 (MJD)
Denmark: 55,000 (MJD)
Total from 10 countries: 1,530,000
Let's not forget that some of MJD's figures are a decade old. Back then, he even had the album at 1,6m. IMO, it should be in the 1,7-1,8m range.
Here's my personal breakdown of Merry Christmas in the most conservative way possible:
North America: 6,550,000
US: 6,250,000
Canada: 300,000
South America: 200,000
Brazil: 75,000
Argentina: 40,000
Mexico: 50,000
Europe: 1,800,000 see above for countries breakdown
Asia: 4,500,000
Japan: 2,800,000
South Korea: 625,000
Taiwan: 325,000
Singapore: 80,000
Hong Kong: 80,000
Philippines: 120,000
China: 100,000
Oceania: 455,000
Australia: 425,000
NZ: 30,000
Africa: 200,000
Worldwide: 13,705,000
By the way Luminator, I realized that your Singapore sales are much higher than they are certified for. Can you explain to me why you did this?
By the way Luminator, I realized that your Singapore sales are much higher than they are certified for. Can you explain to me why you did this?
I deducted that from my own knowledge of the market size and the fact that we have information what other big singers were able to shift there (namingly Celine Dion and Michael Jackson).
I came to the conclusion that Mariah has considerably outsold her pure certifications there.
I might increase the European total for "Merry Christmas" due to your good arguments! Thanks!
Hey Luminator! Here to give more comments on your album estimations.
MTV Unplugged (1992)
I think your 1,26m estimation for Europe is a tad bit too low. Here are the album's biggest market there:
UK: 250,000
France: 225,000
Germany: 275,000
Netherlands: 250,000 (It spent 100+ weeks on the chart! I wouldn't be surprised if this album is eligible for another certification)
=1,000,000 from 4 markets alone! 260K for the rest seem to be too low. There's also:
Italy: 100,000
Spain: 25,000
Sweden: 20,000 (MJD)
Switzerland: 25,000
=1,170,000 from 8 markets alone! I truly believe it sold some more copies in other countries that adds up more than just 1,26m. In fact, MJD had the EU total at 1,29m a decade ago! IMO, 1,35m should be more accurate. 1,4m shouldn't even be out of the question! But since we're being safe, 1,35m sounds more reasonable.
Daydream (1995)
Again, I believe your European estimations are a tad bit too low. MJD last had it at 1,1m in the UK. But later, we all agreed that that was way too high. However, 800K is a bit too low as well. It was certified 2XP just after a few months of release! Also, Wayne once calculated Daydream's sales to be around 850K in the UK. If it sold 760K back in 1996, 800K in hard sales should not be out of question in 2016! Add in club sales, 850K, or perhaps 900K should not be out of the question. After all, this case is similar to Merry Christmas, which has sold around 290K, but has yet to be certified platinum in the UK.
IMO, my personal estimation for Daydream:
UK: 875,000
France: 675,000
Germany: 650,000 (MJD)
Italy: 250,000
Spain: 225,000 (MJD)
Netherlands: 200,000
Sweden: 100,000 (MJD has it at 40K, but based on it's chart run, it certainly shipped more than that)
Switzerland: 75,000
Belgium: 50,000
Austria: 40,000 (MJD)
Norway: 40,000 (MJD)
Poland: 50,000 (MJD)
Denmark: 70,000 (MJD)
Rest: 450K+ (MJD. by deducing his 3,86m total to all the countries he estimated)
Total: 3,750,000
Also, regarding Daydream's Australian sales, I once found a list of best selling albums in Australia, and remember they had Daydream at 400K, and MB at 860K. I can't find the link anymore, but there's an ATRL thread that reports the same thing: http://atrl.net/forums/showthread.php?t=349298
I'll comment on more of your albums estimations sooner. Also, I'll be glad to help you with some of Mariah's singles estimations are individual breakdown!
I upgrated #1's US total from 5,6 to 5,7 million! Do thinks it's ok? I did so because we finally had evidence that the album was also available on the Columbia House music club and should have sold similiar to its BMG performance (~1 million) there.
I upgrated #1's US total from 5,6 to 5,7 million! Do thinks it's ok? I did so because we finally had evidence that the album was also available on the Columbia House music club and should have sold similiar to its BMG performance (~1 million) there.
Definitely! Since Mariah was part of Columbia music, her sales must be huge there! I wouldn't be surprised if it was much closer to 6m as well.
Though i think you've downgraded her Asian sales. Still, it depends on how many copies #1's sold in Japan. If it's closer to 4m, then the Asian total will increase significantly. I like your European estimations though. I've always though it sold more than 3m copies, compared to the always reported 2,8m.
Butterfly estimations are perfect and on point Luminator! For Europe, I have it at 1,5m, but a 50K difference isn't really that big. In the end, that album is at the 10-10,5m range, while #1's should be in the 16m range.
I disagree with the sales for Merry Christmas in Italy. I mean the album was certified 2xP pretty soon after release and has since been also certified gold for its digital sales which mean that the album was or still is in demand, it charts every season on the official italian albums chart (it's the only country after the US as a matter of fact).
There was a rumour, idk if anybody can confirm this, but it is believed to have sold/shipped way more than 2xP in its physical form alone. I read numbers ranging from 260-280k in 2005.
I think 350k is more reasonable.
Also, its British shipment. Going by a shipment of 300k is very conservative. VERY. It has sold 290k and I believe it must have shipped at least 350k as well because we have no information about sales not tracked by music week.
and lastly, Germany. 300k would be a conservative number. Trust me, it IS well stocked here every season. I see it everywhere. It is also quite popular on itunes and amazon. It literally made the top 100 on amazon between 2005-2008.
My estimate for the 2 decade old certification is 350k
Italy: 350k
Germany: 350k
UK: 350k
** shipped
especially in germany, we cannot trust chartruns because universal and sony have suppressed some of her singles from ever entering the singles chart despite big enough sales (or revenue) to make them, best example is IWTKWLI. I do believe that Merry Christmas is massively underrated estimations-wise. It also appeared in special box-sets with other albums of her catalogie (available in supermarkets here like Lidl or Aldi) - sales which probably never counted towards media control. It was also re-released in Germany multiple times - as a vinyl and as a dual disc.
#1's also has multiple editions released: standard (1998), platinum (2002), Gold Edition (2005). It could even be at 400k and we wouldn't know.
We should note that the Merry Christmas's performance in Germany has been really bad in the 90s. One must assume that is didn't sell its initial shipment in the 90s, which is why i was reluctant to estimate it all too generously.
The same goes for all other countries. It's chartruns in the 90s were pretty bleak. It must have been selling from its initial big shipment for a loooooong time.
I might increase it to a figure in the middle of our estimations.
I see you have finished working on your individual album estimations, Luminator! Amazing job! I think all the estimations are pretty good. Overall, Mariah has undoubtedly sold around the 145-150m albums range. With some of the albums probably increasing in sales at a good pace (eg. Greatest Hits, Merry Christmas etc.), I suppose it won't be long till Mariah hits the 150m mark.
Can't believe Mariah has had so many albums that shipped more copies in Asia than Europe, when considering that the European market is so much bigger than Asia. In fact, even though Music Box sold more albums in Europe than Asia (8m vs 5m+), proportionally speaking, it's Asian success still eclipse it's European success!
Anyway, what's next? I can help you on your individual singles estimations, but I can't post regularly due to my hectic school schedule (still in high school if you didn't know). I can perhaps help more frequently on Saturdays or Sundays, but i only know so little about singles sales outside the main markets. I might as well provide comments while you and stevvy work them out.
Tell me if there's anything else that's need to be done, and I'll try to contribute as much as i can!
Anyway, what's next? I can help you on your individual singles estimations, but I can't post regularly due to my hectic school schedule (still in high school if you didn't know). I can perhaps help more frequently on Saturdays or Sundays, but i only know so little about singles sales outside the main markets. I might as well provide comments while you and stevvy work them out.
Tell me if there's anything else that's need to be done, and I'll try to contribute as much as i can!
I would be thankful for worldwide singles estimations since i haven't done that on my own.
I added the SoundScan numbers from pulsemusic. Thanks
Yes! Finally we got an educated opinion on her US Sales at least. I will fix it in time since MJDangerous has my full respect for this breakdown. Did y'all see how much time he invested in this research? It's crazy. I'm amazed by his work in this case.
All those figures all really great, but we have to face one hurtful insight: Rainbow was NOT available at Columbia House :-? , which means that i have overestimated its US and overall sales. We have to talk about a serious adjustment of its ww figure now.
On the other hand, our other estimations were pretty much spot on! Bow down to ourselves !
Surprisingly, Music Box seems to be even bigger than we estimated with an US shipment of 10,6 million! What is more is that it appears to her biggest US album two, whereas we thought that distinction would have gone to Daydream.
Yeah, the amount of work he put into that article is crazy. Props to him! I really wouldn't have expected Music Box to beat Daydream in the U.S.
That was so surprising for me, too.
I also love the fact that his article shows that Butterfly wasn't a true disappointment in the US as it had a great performance on Columbia House easily exclipsing its 5 million shipment.
I mean that album was often a target of haters who caimed that its 3,8 million SoundScan sales wouldn't justify its 5xPlatinum certification.
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