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Taylor Swift :: The "Lover" Era

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  • Very disappointed prediction.
    Don't know why, but I was sure in 700k pure sales.
    My celebrity crushes : Monika Sedziuviene, Kristina Ivanova (YVA).
    In my head I like to imagine LastDreamer in the land of Lithuania right now with a suitcase of simcards, a box of chocolates and a wedding ring. It would be a great base for an epic Eurovision fan fiction.

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    • I know the current climate and the situation of physicals, but I'm also dissapointed with the prediction. She has 5 different CD editions and people are buying them. She had 1M pre-orders before the album came out worldwide, and most of them must come from the US. What does this mean, that with 1 single edition of the CD she would have prayed for 500k combined? I don't get it and my mathematics must be very bad. Or the US pre-ordered less than 100k...

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      • Second biggest debut day on Spotify with 54.8 million, the record still belongs to Ariana's Thank U, Next with 70 million.

        First day Spotify worldwide streams from the desktop app:

        1. I Forgot That You Existed: 4,203,255
        2. Cruel Summer: 4,283,245
        3. Lover: 5,401,002
        4. The Man: 4,711,556
        5. The Archer: 2,729,734
        6. I Think He Knows: 3,118,746
        7. Miss Americana & The Heartbreak Prince: 3,115,275
        8. Paper Rings: 3,089,603
        9. Cornelia Street: 2,762,337
        10. Death By Thousand Cuts: 2,501,703
        11. London Boy: 2,762,337
        12. Soon You'll Get Better: 2,331,358
        13. False God: 2,249,075
        14. You Need To Calm Down: 3,305,484
        15. Afterglow: 2,145,615
        16. Me!: 2,421,170
        17. It's Nice To Have Friends: 1,822,594
        18. Daylight: 1,849,860

        I don't think the album will debut with 1 million sold. It looks like her SEA in the US will likely be in the 120k range, and combined with digital and physical sales, we're probably looking at a 600-700k debut.
        Last edited by Cactuar; Sat August 24th, 2019, 12:40.
        Stan of: Devendra Banhart / Taylor Swift / Grimes / Utada Hikaru / Tori Amos
        Follow me on Last.fm?

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        • Market sales have declined by 37% in the USA. She usually releases her albums by the christmas season which is a busy period. In August sales are very low and she doesn't have strong hit singles as she had during 1989 to back her up. She's doing fine.

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          • I told you all that 1 million is not happening (not even if she released during Xmas season). In 2019 it's impossible to debut with over 1m SPS sales. 750k is an AMAZING number. If she's a bit underestimated and manages to get about 830k she will nearly double the previous best SPS OW of the year. If that doesn't tell you what an amazing accomplishment this is, then go on and write how disappointed you are.

            Fact is: A big batch of you in this thread started with unreasonable expectations to begin with. The whole 1m talk was just crazy talk. There was nothing in the current sales and streaming climate to support even the possibility of doing 1m debut. The fact she did this 4 times before is irrelevant as the sales climate was completely different back then.

            Amazing numbers, god job once again Taylor!
            I have received many gifts from God,
            but this is the first time I have ever received a gift from a goddess
            .

            Don McLean on Madonna's version of American Pie

            Comment


            • Originally posted by oye_up View Post
              I know the current climate and the situation of physicals, but I'm also dissapointed with the prediction. She has 5 different CD editions and people are buying them. She had 1M pre-orders before the album came out worldwide, and most of them must come from the US. What does this mean, that with 1 single edition of the CD she would have prayed for 500k combined? I don't get it and my mathematics must be very bad. Or the US pre-ordered less than 100k...
              Marketing is a ploy. We don't know what kinds of pre-orders they were talking about. Lately they also count pre-saves on streaming platform as "sales" which is anything but a sale as there is no guarantee a person who pre-saved it will stream it enough times to qualify as a sale. And they could've counted the streams from singles before album release date which will count as sales for certification, but won't be counted by BB for album chart. So whatever they meant as pre-sales they didn't lie but we have no idea what they actually counted in those pre-sales.

              If she does 750k SPS first week in the USA I'm pretty sure she will get a 1m cert, based on the pre-release singles streaming which should make up for 250k sales I think. And that's what they will use to spin the album as the continuation of her 1m streak. I wrote that a couple of days ago and with this 750k prediction I'm more than sure they will try to make that happen however they can.
              I have received many gifts from God,
              but this is the first time I have ever received a gift from a goddess
              .

              Don McLean on Madonna's version of American Pie

              Comment


              • Comment


                • Yeah, it will be Platinum on first week because the label has shipped more than a million copies. And I'm dissapointed with the prediction, not with Taylor. I know how incredible it is to go beyond 600k this day and age. But I also know she has a lot of editions and that one single person is accounting for 5 sales in many many cases. So in the end I think, yeah, it's a great number and it's Taylor, but if this means that with only one edition she would've done "only" 400k or 500k, I can't understand that. But anyway, I just want to clarify I'll enjoy and be more than happy with the final result whatever it is because it's going to be huge for this moment ;)

                  Comment


                  • iTunes USA:

                    #1 Lover
                    #49 1989
                    #54 Red
                    #58 Reputation
                    #102 Speak Now
                    #119 Taylor Swift
                    #212 Fearless

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                    • Hits Daily double hasn't even done their article on first day sales yet nor has billboard lets wait and see
                      "the love of a mothers life is her child/children"

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                      • I’m not disappointed at all, in the streaming era first weeks are not important anymore and longevity is the key factor. If Taylor pulls a chart run like Rihanna’s “ANTI” along her better pure sales numbers this era will be HUGE. Also, 700k is terrific because pure sales are dead everywhere but in the k-pop world.
                        BLΛƆKPIИK is the revolution

                        Comment


                        • I think she should have released a really strong lead to be able to secure a close to one million sales. Sadly, so many record stores have closed year after year, not to mention, there are a lot younger artists that the teens go and listen to this days, so it's really hard to compete with the younger pop stars like Ariana Grande, Camila Cabello, Billie Eilish (despite them relying on streaming and not pure sales, mainly).

                          The dilemma here is that Taylor is the last artist (apart from Adele) who can push actual sales, so how she will fare is pretty much the benchmark of pure sales for the rest of the artists.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by oye_up View Post
                            I know the current climate and the situation of physicals, but I'm also dissapointed with the prediction. She has 5 different CD editions and people are buying them. She had 1M pre-orders before the album came out worldwide, and most of them must come from the US. What does this mean, that with 1 single edition of the CD she would have prayed for 500k combined? I don't get it and my mathematics must be very bad. Or the US pre-ordered less than 100k...
                            There won't be many people buying 5 different copies of the album, only die-hard fans and those are not 100k
                            My daddy Alabama, momma Louisiana

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                            • Germany

                              #84 (new) Lover
                              Britney Spears Janet Jackson Christina Aguilera Michael Jackson Selena Gomez Hilary Duff Taylor Swift Justin Timberlake

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                              • Couple of days ago I predicted 750-800k and I think it's what's gonna happen. It will be double the biggest week of the year and with no ticket bundle, so it's great.
                                I think 1m debuts won't happen anymore!
                                My daddy Alabama, momma Louisiana

                                Comment


                                • Adele will probably be the only artist to do 1 million in a week

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                                  • As the follow-up of '1989', 'reputation.' opened with 1.2 mio. copies sold in the US. How should its follow-up open with close to that amount when 'reputation.' only sold a third of '1989' in total? At no point, I expected another million for 'Lover' and I'd already have been happy with 600k+. What's more important for Taylor is the amount of weeks spent at No. 1 anyway: Her albums spent an average 6.5 weeks at No. 1 in the US, including the debut album, which never made it to the top of the chart. It's hard to spend multiple weeks at the top when you freefall in sales after week 1, so a lower opening with milder post-opening drops is better than a 'Born This Way'-esque scenario.
                                    Don't need hindsight
                                    I'll make my emotions clear
                                    And then disappear
                                    With one strike
                                    (All Saints)

                                    Comment


                                    • I think 750k would be fine for this climate.. shes not releasing in her normal end of the year time period where sales are higher and sales have declined this year?? Yet people here are saying this is disappointing..

                                      Its also after reputation.
                                      R.I.P Amy Winehouse :3

                                      Comment


                                      • Originally posted by GetBack View Post
                                        The dilemma here is that Taylor is the last artist (apart from Adele) who can push actual sales, so how she will fare is pretty much the benchmark of pure sales for the rest of the artists.
                                        Well, BTS has strong pure sales too. They had 3M pre-orders in just a few days with their last album worldwide. But yes, in the US looks like Adele is the only artist who can still manage to sell 1M units first week.
                                        BLΛƆKPIИK is the revolution

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                                        • Adele may achieve it. Besides her, there's always the chance of some unexpected huge phenomenon like the Beatles, MJ or the Backstreet Boys appearing out of nowhere. Not sure whether it's possible in the US, but in Germany, we've had acts like Sarah Connor or Udo Lindenberg achieving their biggest seller years or even decades deep into their career with big comeback albums. So maybe Usher gets his acts together and continues where he once was with 'Confessions', who knows...
                                          What about Ed Sheeran? He hasn't cracked the US in a way he did some other major music markets, but maybe his next album will with a platinum opening and months spent at No. 1...
                                          Last edited by theMathematician; Sat August 24th, 2019, 16:08.
                                          Don't need hindsight
                                          I'll make my emotions clear
                                          And then disappear
                                          With one strike
                                          (All Saints)

                                          Comment


                                          • I don't care about SPS, "Reputation" was released only 2 years ago and sold 1.216 million in the first week.
                                            Now we will get only 500-600k, it's more than a half less.

                                            Just want to believe that she will beat "Reputation" pure sale numbers in first 5-6 months.
                                            Last edited by LastDreamer; Sat August 24th, 2019, 16:16.
                                            My celebrity crushes : Monika Sedziuviene, Kristina Ivanova (YVA).
                                            In my head I like to imagine LastDreamer in the land of Lithuania right now with a suitcase of simcards, a box of chocolates and a wedding ring. It would be a great base for an epic Eurovision fan fiction.

                                            Comment




                                            • Britney Spears Janet Jackson Christina Aguilera Michael Jackson Selena Gomez Hilary Duff Taylor Swift Justin Timberlake

                                              Comment


                                              • Oh wow her USA streams are gunna be big

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                                                • where do you think YNTCD and LOVER will reach next week in billboard 100?

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                                                  • Originally posted by LastDreamer View Post
                                                    I don't care about SPS, "Reputation" was released only 2 years ago and sold 1.216 million in the first week.
                                                    Now we will get only 500-600k, it's more than a half less.

                                                    Just want to believe that she will beat "Reputation" pure sale numbers in first 5-6 months.
                                                    You are rambling. Two years ago was two years ago. Physical sales have dropped so much since then. And you don't even have to follow charts much to realize that. Just go check yearly US sales from 2017, 2018 and from 2019 (so far. The drops speak for themselves. And you have to adjust expectations to the drops, not what someone's album did "only" two years ago.
                                                    I have received many gifts from God,
                                                    but this is the first time I have ever received a gift from a goddess
                                                    .

                                                    Don McLean on Madonna's version of American Pie

                                                    Comment


                                                    • Originally posted by LastDreamer View Post
                                                      I don't care about SPS, "Reputation" was released only 2 years ago and sold 1.216 million in the first week.
                                                      Now we will get only 500-600k, it's more than a half less.

                                                      Just want to believe that she will beat "Reputation" pure sale numbers in first 5-6 months.

                                                      Its predicted 700k so how is it 500/600?
                                                      R.I.P Amy Winehouse :3

                                                      Comment


                                                      • Originally posted by wotad View Post
                                                        Its predicted 700k so how is it 500/600?
                                                        It's SPS prediction, based on big streaming numbers we will get only 500-600k in pure sales.
                                                        Last edited by LastDreamer; Mon August 26th, 2019, 09:01.
                                                        My celebrity crushes : Monika Sedziuviene, Kristina Ivanova (YVA).
                                                        In my head I like to imagine LastDreamer in the land of Lithuania right now with a suitcase of simcards, a box of chocolates and a wedding ring. It would be a great base for an epic Eurovision fan fiction.

                                                        Comment


                                                        • Originally posted by LastDreamer View Post
                                                          It's SPS prediction, based on big streaming numbers we will get only 500-600k in pure sales.
                                                          it's not unbeliveble, but it's still very very good! nobody got close this year or lasy year without tour bundule if i'm not wrong.
                                                          big streaming numbers is a good sign for the future for her. she has been here 13 years, but she is still young.
                                                          i think a tour bundle can really help her next time

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                                                          • Can I just say the 750k prediction from hits was before the album was released, we are still waiting on an update after 1st day sales come out

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                                                            • I have just thought that this time's August release (all her previous albums have been released Oct-Nov) has reasons.
                                                              I'm sure industry insiders know that another album is goin' to be release this Oct-Nov which even Taylor won't be able competing with.
                                                              Also this time her team definitely aims Grammys by releasing the album just a week before the ending of the eligibility period.

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