Taylor Swift :: Charts & Sales History

[TheMysteriousMan]

Edit: full predictions coming soon. And to keep this thread clean, I deleted the old one. You can view my old predictions through the quotes below.


OK there won't be any new content to post in a while (Edit: sorry that was what I thought lmao)
Have a happy 2022 everyone!
And don't forget to listen to New Year's Day & 22 (TV) etc even the new year's day has passed

[JeremySpears]

And your faves?

[JeremySpears]

[Leviathan]

Any update for UK album sales?

Taylor Swift: 187,000
Fearless: 667,000
Speak Now: 297,000
Red (2012): 801,000
1989: 1,427,000
Reputation: 487,000
Lover: 331,000
Folklore: 289,000
Evermore: 176,000
Fearless TV: 70,400
Red TV: 115,400

Speak Now and Folklore should both make it to platinum next month. Can't believe that after more than 11 years of waiting Speak Now is finally going platinum

[Leviathan]

Spotify Streams by the end of 2022 prediction

How I calculated:
Most Optimistic Prediction = Current Streams + 1.5*2021 Gain
Most Pessimistic Prediction = Current Streams + 1.2*2021 Gain
(which I think is p reasonable, even debut gained 30% more streams in 2021 than in 2020)

1989 (All standard editions)

**********Title**********	***Current Streams***	**********Low**********	*********High***********
Clean	80,877,551	113,456,433	121,601,153
HYGTG	71,560,973	96,062,901	102,188,383
I Know Places	62,521,023	85,608,889	91,380,855
This Love	60,042,991	81,653,493	87,056,119
I Wish You Would	59,661,575	81,014,398	86,352,604

reputation (TIWWCHNT, KOMH & Dress are very close to 100M already)

*************************	*************************	*************************	*************************
New Year's Day	81,343,524	105,918,636	112,062,414
So It Goes...	75,460,296	96,627,442	101,919,228

Lover (Tbh I think maybe SYGB & INTHAF should be a bit lower)

*************************	*************************	*************************	*************************
False God	84,832,263	111,578,657	118,265,256
Daylight	82,360,502	111,069,400	118,246,625
SYGB	73,124,598	93,979,698	99,193,473
INTHAF	61,783,275	80,255,565	84,873,638

folklore:
all songs will surpass 100M in 240 - 270 days.

evermore:
dorothea & cowboy like me might or might not reach 100M in 2022. marjorie & closure almost certainly won't reach in 2022, but they probably will in 2023.


OK there won't be any new content to post in a while
Have a happy 2022 everyone!
And don't forget to listen to New Year's Day & 22 (TV) etc even the new year's day has passed

It would be amazing if you did this for all of her songs, or at least her biggest ones.

Also, a big thank you for the all the stuff you've been posting recently. It's so informative! I'm sure it must've taken a lot of effort to put together such detailed posts. Thanks once again!

[TheMysteriousMan]

Taylor Swift: 187,000
Fearless: 667,000
Speak Now: 297,000
Red (2012): 801,000
1989: 1,428,000
Reputation: 488,000
Lover: 332,000
Folklore: 291,000
Evermore: 177,000
Fearless TV: 71,000
Red TV: 119,000

Speak Now and Folklore should both make it to platinum next month. Can't believe that after more than 11 years of waiting Speak Now is finally going platinum

Speak Now 300k? Unbelievable. I mean look at its chart run... (don't look at it, don't look at it)

[TheMysteriousMan]

Leviathan ^thank you for the kind words! I can do her hits, but the rest idk, I'll see. I have 2021 yr end data saved in excel, but the 2020 yr end numbers are only saved in pngs... so it's hard to put all of them in MS Excel to calculate... I'll see if I could find a text recognition tool to convert them into texts...

[JeremySpears]

Taylor Swift everyone

[TheMysteriousMan]

Edit: to keep this thread clean, I deleted my original post since it's quoted below.

[GreekGeek]

Edit: Delete my comment - Wrong thread

[Nost]

"Lover" is certified Gold (25,000) in Italy.
https://www.fimi.it/top-of-the-music...ationform/9622

[Nost]

[JC96]

Coming for 1B on late 2023.

Daylight is Gold eligible now. 17/18 done.

[TheMysteriousMan]

New Year's Day on Spotify:

ddddddate	2017-2018	2018-2019	2019-2020	2020-2021	2021-2022
27/12	198,353				79,366
28/12	208,316			52,646	82,948
29/12	209,338		31,358	54,133	86,904
30/12	191,893		38,632	61,682	97,847
31/12	251,431	95,023	69,198	129,507	205,453
1/1	240,061	151,780	103,459	200,327	371,284
2/1	170,004				168,482

[Leviathan]

Leviathan
Ok so I found an online OCR and used it for text recognition and guess what... 100% accuracy some ppl are just too intelligent...
so now I have the 2020 yr end numbers saved in ms excel as well and I can do the full prediction! Thanks for the request lol
-----------------------------
And now it's the algorithm:

I doubt if Taylor's stream in 2022 will increase that much like 2021. Taylor's re-recordings contributed to her increase in streams and her first r-r was in 2021. I doubt if 2022 will have that surge in streams as the streams now are already amazing.

1.songs that have gone viral on Tiktok, but streams didn't surge that much like Enchanted
I'd say ignore them... Bc those that went viral on Tiktok on the second half of 2021 were mostly new songs, I can't predict them. See "4". And those who went viral earlier? Their increase in streams already reflected in 2021 streams.

2.Fearless og & Red og
2022 yr end = 2021 yr end + next week's daily avg streams(nwdas)*365

3.Speak Now
I think the r-r will come out in April - June, so p similar to Fearless

.Enchanted = 2021 yr end + nwdas*(365/2) + nwdas/2*(365/2) = 2021 yr end + nwdas*365*1.5 (suppose streams decreased by 50% after r-r)
.rest 6%-15% increase from last yr (Why? Bc Fearless gained 6.6% more only in 2021, and consider Enchanted helped the whole album surge in streams)

4.folklore, evemore, R-Rs
they are relatively new, so streams def decrease, but the decreasing rates vary. I don't think there's a way to predict.

5. Lover
It's not that "old", and it just decreased by 20% in 2021. So idk how will it perform in 2022...

6.rest
Debut 10%-30% increase from last yr
1989 & reputation 20%-50% increase from last yr




What ye reckon?????

Interesting algorithm. I personally also did predictions for all her albums + individual songs on those albums on Excel, but I didn't use any algorithm. I just assumed they would remain stable in streams throughout 2022 (her older albums would probably rise). Realistically, Folklore shouldn't decrease very much at all, considering Lover's streams only rose between the end of 2020 and the end of 2021, & Folklore seems to be following a similar path. Evermore would probably drop in streams, but I doubt the drop would be too bad considering the streams aren't inflated due to playlisting. As the year proceeds, I'll continue to update my prediction, probably on a monthly basis. I also did predictions for Taylor's streams in 2021 last January, and I got Debut & Fearless almost completely right, and the rest of her albums all ended up outperforming my initial forecast (except Evermore since I didn't end up forecasting anything for it because of how new it was). It's gonna be interesting to see the trend in her streams throughout the year. Hopefully they'll continue to grow throughout the year like they did last year.

[TheMysteriousMan]

Leviathan
Hey you can link your prediction here too! I'm sure ppl would love to see them.

I agree with what you said abt folklore, it's been stable. I shall do the prediction later when the streams get stablized, there have been many holidays recently and the streams fluctuated a lot

[Leviathan]

Leviathan
Hey you can link your prediction here too! I'm sure ppl would love to see them.

I agree with what you said abt folklore, it's been stable. I shall do the prediction later when the streams get stablized, there have been many holidays recently and the streams fluctuated a lot

Here's the link: https://1drv.ms/x/s!AtTsCFJGr92TgU_k...lN5Mv?e=XqyjzL. Not sure if I'm allowed to post links here under the current rules, so if any moderator finds this violating any rules please remove this without giving me an infraction.

[JC96]

[TheMysteriousMan]

Here's the link: https://1drv.ms/x/s!AtTsCFJGr92TgU_k...lN5Mv?e=XqyjzL. Not sure if I'm allowed to post links here under the current rules, so if any moderator finds this violating any rules please remove this without giving me an infraction.

Amazing! Pretty reasonable predictions!
I read the rules and they say we are allowed to post links as long as they are permanent.

[TheMysteriousMan]

Billboard 200 (8/1/22 Update)

#3 Red (Taylor's Version) (=) (7 woc)
#35 evermore (+6) (55 woc)
#49 folklore (=) (75 woc)
#59 Fearless (Taylor's Version) (-16) (37 woc)
#83 Lover (-12) (123 woc)
#123 1989 (+68) (368 woc)
#156 reputation (RE) (171 woc)

I don't know if this week's update should count as the 53rd week of 2021 (tracking date: 24/12/2021 - 30/12/2021) or the 1st or 2nd week of 2022, so I linked my previous post "bb200 history as of the end of 2021" below, to make it complete.

https://www.ukmix.org/forum/chart-di...6#post10792386

[Tansike]

German Midweek Charts

31 (46) Red
55 (79) Reputation
83 (RE) 1989

[Leviathan]

German Midweek Charts

31 (46) Red
55 (79) Reputation
83 (RE) 1989

Reputation that high? Oh my god! I hope Evermore can re-enter too.
Wow at 1989 re-entering already. 1989 TV is gonna do really well there, if Red TV is anything to go by.

[Leviathan]

Official Albums Update Chart:

16 (22) Red (Taylor's Version)
44 (56) 1989
54 (66) Folklore
62 (58) Evermore
69 (RE) Lover
89 (RE) Reputation

Reputation is going to re-enter the UK Charts for the first time in 2 years! It is also going to achieve its highest placement in 3 years.

[JeremySpears]

Taylor single-handedly saving pure sales. She’s the music industry for a reason.

[Leviathan]

Seems pretty accurate. This would put Red (2012)'s 2021 units at 328,000 and Fearless (2008)'s 2021 units at 274,000. The latter matches up with what MRC data said in its year-end report. Huge catalogue numbers, even for her debut. Even with the re-recordings cutting their units, I think Taylor might be able to get each of her first 5 albums to diamond status before her career even turns 30.