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  • Edit: full predictions coming soon. And to keep this thread clean, I deleted the old one. You can view my old predictions through the quotes below.


    OK there won't be any new content to post in a while (Edit: sorry that was what I thought lmao)
    Have a happy 2022 everyone!
    And don't forget to listen to New Year's Day & 22 (TV) etc even the new year's day has passed
    Last edited by TheMysteriousMan; Wed January 5, 2022, 06:55.

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    • And your faves?
      Britney Spears • Janet Jackson • Christina Aguilera • Michael Jackson • Selena Gomez • Hilary Duff • Taylor Swift •

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      • Britney Spears • Janet Jackson • Christina Aguilera • Michael Jackson • Selena Gomez • Hilary Duff • Taylor Swift •

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        • Originally posted by EOT View Post
          Any update for UK album sales?
          Taylor Swift: 187,000
          Fearless: 667,000
          Speak Now: 297,000
          Red (2012): 801,000
          1989: 1,427,000
          Reputation: 487,000
          Lover: 331,000
          Folklore: 289,000
          Evermore: 176,000
          Fearless TV: 70,400
          Red TV: 115,400

          Speak Now and Folklore should both make it to platinum next month. Can't believe that after more than 11 years of waiting Speak Now is finally going platinum
          Last edited by Leviathan; Wed January 5, 2022, 12:32.

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          • Originally posted by TheMysteriousMan View Post
            Spotify Streams by the end of 2022 prediction

            How I calculated:
            Most Optimistic Prediction = Current Streams + 1.5*2021 Gain
            Most Pessimistic Prediction = Current Streams + 1.2*2021 Gain
            (which I think is p reasonable, even debut gained 30% more streams in 2021 than in 2020)


            1989 (All standard editions)

            **********Title**********
            ***Current Streams***
            **********Low**********
            *********High***********
            Clean 80,877,551 113,456,433 121,601,153
            HYGTG 71,560,973 96,062,901 102,188,383
            I Know Places 62,521,023 85,608,889 91,380,855
            This Love 60,042,991 81,653,493 87,056,119
            I Wish You Would 59,661,575 81,014,398 86,352,604

            reputation (TIWWCHNT, KOMH & Dress are very close to 100M already)
            *************************
            *************************
            *************************
            *************************
            New Year's Day 81,343,524 105,918,636 112,062,414
            So It Goes... 75,460,296 96,627,442 101,919,228

            Lover (Tbh I think maybe SYGB & INTHAF should be a bit lower)
            *************************
            *************************
            *************************
            *************************
            False God 84,832,263 111,578,657 118,265,256
            Daylight 82,360,502 111,069,400 118,246,625
            SYGB 73,124,598 93,979,698 99,193,473
            INTHAF 61,783,275 80,255,565 84,873,638

            folklore:
            all songs will surpass 100M in 240 - 270 days.

            evermore:
            dorothea & cowboy like me might or might not reach 100M in 2022. marjorie & closure almost certainly won't reach in 2022, but they probably will in 2023.


            OK there won't be any new content to post in a while
            Have a happy 2022 everyone!
            And don't forget to listen to New Year's Day & 22 (TV) etc even the new year's day has passed
            It would be amazing if you did this for all of her songs, or at least her biggest ones.

            Also, a big thank you for the all the stuff you've been posting recently. It's so informative! I'm sure it must've taken a lot of effort to put together such detailed posts. Thanks once again!

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            • Originally posted by Leviathan View Post

              Taylor Swift: 187,000
              Fearless: 667,000
              Speak Now: 297,000
              Red (2012): 801,000
              1989: 1,428,000
              Reputation: 488,000
              Lover: 332,000
              Folklore: 291,000
              Evermore: 177,000
              Fearless TV: 71,000
              Red TV: 119,000

              Speak Now and Folklore should both make it to platinum next month. Can't believe that after more than 11 years of waiting Speak Now is finally going platinum
              Speak Now 300k? Unbelievable. I mean look at its chart run... (don't look at it, don't look at it)

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              • Leviathan ^thank you for the kind words! I can do her hits, but the rest idk, I'll see. I have 2021 yr end data saved in excel, but the 2020 yr end numbers are only saved in pngs... so it's hard to put all of them in MS Excel to calculate... I'll see if I could find a text recognition tool to convert them into texts...

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                • Taylor Swift everyone
                  Britney Spears • Janet Jackson • Christina Aguilera • Michael Jackson • Selena Gomez • Hilary Duff • Taylor Swift •

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                  • Edit: to keep this thread clean, I deleted my original post since it's quoted below.
                    Last edited by TheMysteriousMan; Wed January 5, 2022, 06:51.

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                    • Edit: Delete my comment - Wrong thread
                      Last edited by GreekGeek; Mon January 3, 2022, 15:24.
                      And the 8th day God created KYLIE!!! <3

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                      • "Lover" is certified Gold (25,000) in Italy.
                        https://www.fimi.it/top-of-the-music...ationform/9622

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                          • Coming for 1B on late 2023.


                            Daylight is Gold eligible now. 17/18 done.

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                            • New Year's Day on Spotify:

                              ddddddate 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022
                              27/12 198,353 79,366
                              28/12 208,316 52,646 82,948
                              29/12 209,338 31,358 54,133 86,904
                              30/12 191,893 38,632 61,682 97,847
                              31/12 251,431 95,023 69,198 129,507 205,453
                              1/1 240,061 151,780 103,459 200,327 371,284
                              2/1 170,004 168,482

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                              • Originally posted by TheMysteriousMan View Post
                                Leviathan
                                Ok so I found an online OCR and used it for text recognition and guess what... 100% accuracy some ppl are just too intelligent...
                                so now I have the 2020 yr end numbers saved in ms excel as well and I can do the full prediction! Thanks for the request lol
                                -----------------------------
                                And now it's the algorithm:

                                I doubt if Taylor's stream in 2022 will increase that much like 2021. Taylor's re-recordings contributed to her increase in streams and her first r-r was in 2021. I doubt if 2022 will have that surge in streams as the streams now are already amazing.

                                1.songs that have gone viral on Tiktok, but streams didn't surge that much like Enchanted
                                I'd say ignore them... Bc those that went viral on Tiktok on the second half of 2021 were mostly new songs, I can't predict them. See "4". And those who went viral earlier? Their increase in streams already reflected in 2021 streams.

                                2.Fearless og & Red og
                                2022 yr end = 2021 yr end + next week's daily avg streams(nwdas)*365

                                3.Speak Now
                                I think the r-r will come out in April - June, so p similar to Fearless

                                .Enchanted = 2021 yr end + nwdas*(365/2) + nwdas/2*(365/2) = 2021 yr end + nwdas*365*1.5 (suppose streams decreased by 50% after r-r)
                                .rest 6%-15% increase from last yr (Why? Bc Fearless gained 6.6% more only in 2021, and consider Enchanted helped the whole album surge in streams)

                                4.folklore, evemore, R-Rs
                                they are relatively new, so streams def decrease, but the decreasing rates vary. I don't think there's a way to predict.

                                5. Lover
                                It's not that "old", and it just decreased by 20% in 2021. So idk how will it perform in 2022...

                                6.rest
                                Debut 10%-30% increase from last yr
                                1989 & reputation 20%-50% increase from last yr




                                What ye reckon?????
                                Interesting algorithm. I personally also did predictions for all her albums + individual songs on those albums on Excel, but I didn't use any algorithm. I just assumed they would remain stable in streams throughout 2022 (her older albums would probably rise). Realistically, Folklore shouldn't decrease very much at all, considering Lover's streams only rose between the end of 2020 and the end of 2021, & Folklore seems to be following a similar path. Evermore would probably drop in streams, but I doubt the drop would be too bad considering the streams aren't inflated due to playlisting. As the year proceeds, I'll continue to update my prediction, probably on a monthly basis. I also did predictions for Taylor's streams in 2021 last January, and I got Debut & Fearless almost completely right, and the rest of her albums all ended up outperforming my initial forecast (except Evermore since I didn't end up forecasting anything for it because of how new it was). It's gonna be interesting to see the trend in her streams throughout the year. Hopefully they'll continue to grow throughout the year like they did last year.

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                                • Leviathan
                                  Hey you can link your prediction here too! I'm sure ppl would love to see them.

                                  I agree with what you said abt folklore, it's been stable. I shall do the prediction later when the streams get stablized, there have been many holidays recently and the streams fluctuated a lot

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                                  • Originally posted by TheMysteriousMan View Post
                                    Leviathan
                                    Hey you can link your prediction here too! I'm sure ppl would love to see them.

                                    I agree with what you said abt folklore, it's been stable. I shall do the prediction later when the streams get stablized, there have been many holidays recently and the streams fluctuated a lot
                                    Here's the link: https://1drv.ms/x/s!AtTsCFJGr92TgU_k...lN5Mv?e=XqyjzL. Not sure if I'm allowed to post links here under the current rules, so if any moderator finds this violating any rules please remove this without giving me an infraction.

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                                    • Comment


                                      • Originally posted by Leviathan View Post

                                        Here's the link: https://1drv.ms/x/s!AtTsCFJGr92TgU_k...lN5Mv?e=XqyjzL. Not sure if I'm allowed to post links here under the current rules, so if any moderator finds this violating any rules please remove this without giving me an infraction.
                                        Amazing! Pretty reasonable predictions!
                                        I read the rules and they say we are allowed to post links as long as they are permanent.
                                        Last edited by TheMysteriousMan; Wed January 5, 2022, 06:52.

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                                        • Billboard 200 (8/1/22 Update)

                                          #3 Red (Taylor's Version) (=) (7 woc)
                                          #35 evermore (+6) (55 woc)
                                          #49 folklore (=) (75 woc)
                                          #59 Fearless (Taylor's Version) (-16) (37 woc)
                                          #83 Lover (-12) (123 woc)
                                          #123 1989 (+68) (368 woc)
                                          #156 reputation (RE) (171 woc)

                                          I don't know if this week's update should count as the 53rd week of 2021 (tracking date: 24/12/2021 - 30/12/2021) or the 1st or 2nd week of 2022, so I linked my previous post "bb200 history as of the end of 2021" below, to make it complete.

                                          https://www.ukmix.org/forum/chart-di...6#post10792386
                                          Last edited by TheMysteriousMan; Fri January 7, 2022, 11:34.

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                                          • German Midweek Charts

                                            31 (46) Red
                                            55 (79) Reputation
                                            83 (RE) 1989

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                                            • Originally posted by Tansike View Post
                                              German Midweek Charts

                                              31 (46) Red
                                              55 (79) Reputation
                                              83 (RE) 1989

                                              Reputation that high? Oh my god! I hope Evermore can re-enter too.
                                              Wow at 1989 re-entering already. 1989 TV is gonna do really well there, if Red TV is anything to go by.

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                                              • Official Albums Update Chart:

                                                16 (22) Red (Taylor's Version)
                                                44 (56) 1989
                                                54 (66) Folklore
                                                62 (58) Evermore
                                                69 (RE) Lover
                                                89 (RE) Reputation

                                                Reputation is going to re-enter the UK Charts for the first time in 2 years! It is also going to achieve its highest placement in 3 years.

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                                                • Taylor single-handedly saving pure sales. She’s the music industry for a reason.
                                                  Britney Spears • Janet Jackson • Christina Aguilera • Michael Jackson • Selena Gomez • Hilary Duff • Taylor Swift •

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                                                  • Seems pretty accurate. This would put Red (2012)'s 2021 units at 328,000 and Fearless (2008)'s 2021 units at 274,000. The latter matches up with what MRC data said in its year-end report. Huge catalogue numbers, even for her debut. Even with the re-recordings cutting their units, I think Taylor might be able to get each of her first 5 albums to diamond status before her career even turns 30.
                                                    Last edited by Leviathan; Fri January 7, 2022, 06:58.

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