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The Ultimate Averaged Chart - The BBC Chart Re-Imagined

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  • TopTwenty
    replied
    I’ve been following this thread for a while now. What a goldmine of information. Regarding Lonely Bull. I don’t think that ever got into any of the top twenty charts.
    Last edited by TopTwenty; Tue April 13, 2021, 11:04.

    Leave a comment:


  • MrTibbs
    replied
    Greetings Pop Pickers !

    Here is the next Ultimate Averaged Chart for Week Ending January 19th 1963

    The Ultimate Averaged Chart - Week Ending January 19th 1963 NME MM DISC RR Total
    Last This The Sound Survey Stores 100 150 50 30 Points
    Week Week The Top 30 Singles Chart BBC TOP 30 Scored
    1 1 The Next Time / Bachelor Boy - Cliff Richard 1 3 1 1 1 9700
    3 2 Dance On - The Shadows 2 1 2 2 2 9670
    2 3 Return To Sender - Elvis Presley 3 2 3 3 3 9340
    11 4 Like I Do - Maureen Evans 4 7 5 7 5 8280
    4 5 (Dance With The) Guitar Man - Duane Eddy 6 10 4 8 7 8020
    20 6 Globetrotter - The Tornados 5 6 9 4 9 7810
    6 7 Lovesick Blues / She Taught Me How To Yodel - Frank Ifield 7 9 8 9 4 7560
    5 8 Sun Arise - Rolf Harris 10 13 6 10 8 7290
    28 9 Diamonds - Jet Harris and Tony Meehan 8 5 12 6 12 7270
    8 10 Go Away Little Girl - Mark Wynter 9 12 7 11 6 7250
    13 11 Up On The Roof - Kenny Lynch 11 11 11 5 13 6840
    7 12 It Only Took A Minute - Joe Brown 12 16 10 13 11 6150
    18 13 Don't You Think It's Time - Mike Berry 13 13 14 12 15 5780
    23 14 Comin' Home Baby - Mel Torme 14 8 17 14 18 5640
    9 15 Telstar - The Tornados 15 15 13 23 10 5330
    10 16 Bobby's Girl - Susan Maughan 16 18 15 15 14 5010
    12 17 Let's Dance - Chris Montez 17 21 16 18 16 4350
    21 18 He's A Rebel - The Crystals 18 19 18 16 21 4200
    14 19 Desafinado - Stan Getz and Charlie Byrd 19 22 19 17 23 3640
    16 20 Your Cheating Heart - Ray Charles 20 24 24 20 17 2720
    15 21 The Swiss Maid - Del Shannon 21 20 24 20 2330
    NEW 22 Just For Kicks - Mike Sarne 22 21 22 22 2220
    17 23 A Forever Kind Of Love - Bobby Vee 24= 23 23 24 2210
    NEW 24 Little Town Flirt - Del Shannon 23 17 21 1900
    29 25 Island Of Dreams - The Springfields 24= 22 29 19 1810
    NEW 26 Big Girls Don't Cry - The Four Seasons 24= 20 19 1700
    19 27 The Main Attraction - Pat Boone 27 25 25 1080
    30 28 Up On The Roof - Julie Grant 27 24 30 27 1050
    24 29 Love Me Do - The Beatles 26 28 840
    NEW 30 The Lonely Bull - The Tijuana Brass 29= 27 26 750
    Bachelor Boy - Cliff Richard 4
    X Ruby Ann - Marty Robbins 29= 28 25 600
    26 Devil Woman - Marty Robbins 28 27 570
    22 Me And My Shadow - Frank Sinatra and Sammy Davis Jnr. 29 29 26 29 510
    B All Alone Am I - Brenda Lee 26 500
    B Charmaine - The Bachelors 27 30 450
    25 Baby Take A Bow - Adam Faith 29 300
    B Loop-Di-Loop - Frankie Vaughan 29 200
    B The Alley Cat Song - David Thorne 28 150
    We're Gonna Go Fishin' - Hank Locklin 30 30
    27 Must Be Madison - Joe Loss

    Leave a comment:


  • MrTibbs
    replied
    Originally posted by brian05 View Post
    But you have for DISC,
    20 The Swiss Maid - Del Shannon

    29 The Lonely Bull - The Tijuana Brass.

    I'm still confused!
    Yeah 29 not 20. Sorted at last

    Leave a comment:


  • MrTibbs
    replied
    Originally posted by RokinRobinOfLocksley View Post
    Brian, to summarize your recommended record shop numbers for Feb 1969 to Mar 1971, you propose:
    --keeping MM constant at 200 shops
    --keeping NME constant at 150
    --ramping up BMRB from 100 to 200

    This sounds 'relatively' reasonable, though I took the liberty of re-reading all of Alan's articles just for the heck of it. He says MM was at 250-280 shops from 1967-1969, and didn't cut back until May 1971, dropping down to 200. If it were me, I would bump MM up to somewhere between 250-280, going for the average constant of 265.

    For NME, Alan has mixed info. Some places he states NME sampled a max of 150 shops, and other places he says some weeks they got up to 200 samples 1964-1967. And they dropped to exactly 100 in 1972. If if were me, I'd do the average constant of 175.

    BMRB is a question. In one post (2014) Alan says starting out BMRB barely got above 20% of 300 supposed returns (= 60 shops). In another post (2014), he says they only got 10 to 25% of returns available or valid to use (assuming of 300 = 30 to 75 shops). In a 3rd post (2012), he says BMRB doesn't hold a record of the proportion of early returns, but based on the number of tied positions, the math suggests they only received 20-25% (assuming of 300 = 60 to 75 shops). Going for the max, that would mean 75 shops starting out before ramping up. For the upper end ramp up, in earlier posts above someone found 2 BMRB/BPI reports of 200+ shops prior to 1976, and Cable's book notes 159 out of 299 returns for a specific week in 1976. So a 200 max ramp up sounds reasonable. Thus if it were me, I'd start with 75 shops, then ramp up to 200.

    To summarize ME:
    --MM 265
    --NME 175
    --BMRB 75 ramping up to 200

    But that's just ME, ha. Rock on...
    That researched info is spot on Robin and really fine tunes the figures we have all been discussing and considering.
    Your info above is the evidence based research needed to authenticate store returns for the 1969 and beyond period. It is the best we can achieve I believe and I'm happy to run with those baseline figures to produce a chart.

    So MM 265
    NME 175
    RR 75 initially, and rising in stages of 25 every 5 months which is reasonable growth reaching 200 by March 1971.

    At last a solution I can work with. Thanks guys for throwing your ideas into the mix to help shape this. We have now got there and I can start to work on 1969 from tomorrow.

    Leave a comment:


  • Graham76man
    commented on 's reply
    I was talking about the 1970 chart only!

  • Graham76man
    commented on 's reply
    Boots and Smiths were not on board the BMRB chart, they were not on even in 1976.

  • kingofskiffle
    commented on 's reply
    Yes, because the above is the right chart. The UKMix post is the wrong chart positions.

  • brian05
    replied
    But you have for DISC,
    20 The Swiss Maid - Del Shannon

    29 The Lonely Bull - The Tijuana Brass.

    I'm still confused!

    Leave a comment:


  • kingofskiffle
    commented on 's reply
    Ah I get it. Thanks for the clarity. Must be me not getting it (Had two weeks off work and today was day one back so brain is asleep!)

  • MrTibbs
    replied
    Originally posted by kingofskiffle View Post
    The note on 12 Jan 63 doesn't make sense to me I am afraid....
    The Disc Weekly charts that are here on this site have that error Lonnie. The chart on here for 12th January says no 20 is Island Of Dreams by The Tijuana Brass but that is a misprint as it should be The Lonely Bull by The Tijuana Brass. That's how I should have explained it. Sorry .

    Leave a comment:


  • kingofskiffle
    replied
    The note on 12 Jan 63 doesn't make sense to me I am afraid....

    Leave a comment:


  • RokinRobinOfLocksley
    replied
    Brian, to summarize your recommended record shop numbers for Feb 1969 to Mar 1971, you propose:
    --keeping MM constant at 200 shops
    --keeping NME constant at 150
    --ramping up BMRB from 100 to 200

    This sounds 'relatively' reasonable, though I took the liberty of re-reading all of Alan's articles just for the heck of it. He says MM was at 250-280 shops from 1967-1969, and didn't cut back until May 1971, dropping down to 200. If it were me, I would bump MM up to somewhere between 250-280, going for the average constant of 265.

    For NME, Alan has mixed info. Some places he states NME sampled a max of 150 shops, and other places he says some weeks they got up to 200 samples 1964-1967. And they dropped to exactly 100 in 1972. If if were me, I'd do the average constant of 175.

    BMRB is a question. In one post (2014) Alan says starting out BMRB barely got above 20% of 300 supposed returns (= 60 shops). In another post (2014), he says they only got 10 to 25% of returns available or valid to use (assuming of 300 = 30 to 75 shops). In a 3rd post (2012), he says BMRB doesn't hold a record of the proportion of early returns, but based on the number of tied positions, the math suggests they only received 20-25% (assuming of 300 = 60 to 75 shops). Going for the max, that would mean 75 shops starting out before ramping up. For the upper end ramp up, in earlier posts above someone found 2 BMRB/BPI reports of 200+ shops prior to 1976, and Cable's book notes 159 out of 299 returns for a specific week in 1976. So a 200 max ramp up sounds reasonable. Thus if it were me, I'd start with 75 shops, then ramp up to 200.

    To summarize ME:
    --MM 265
    --NME 175
    --BMRB 75 ramping up to 200

    But that's just ME, ha. Rock on...

    Leave a comment:


  • MrTibbs
    replied
    Oh Man ! Two stunning instrumental new entries this week from The Tornados and Jet Harris and Tony Meehan.

    Let The Good Times Roll

    Leave a comment:


  • MrTibbs
    replied
    Greetings Pop Pickers !

    Here is the next Ultimate Averaged Chart for Week Ending January 12th 1963

    The Ultimate Averaged Chart - Week Ending January 12th 1963 NME MM DISC RR Total
    Last This The Sound Survey Stores 100 150 50 30 Points
    Week Week The Top 30 Singles Chart BBC TOP 30 Scored
    1 1 The Next Time / Bachelor Boy - Cliff Richard 1 3 1 1 1 9700
    2 2 Return To Sender - Elvis Presley 2= 2 2 3 2 9520
    3 3 Dance On - The Shadows 2= 1 3 2 3 9490
    5 4 (Dance With The) Guitar Man - Duane Eddy 4 5 4 5 4 8760
    4 5 Sun Arise - Rolf Harris 5 7 5 4 7 8370
    6 6 Lovesick Blues / She Taught Me How To Yodel - Frank Ifield 6 6 6 6 5 8280
    8 7 It Only Took A Minute - Joe Brown 7 9 7 9 6 7650
    13 8 Go Away Little Girl - Mark Wynter 8 10 11 7 8 6990
    9 9 Telstar - The Tornados 12 8 8 21 11 6850
    7 10 Bobby's Girl - Susan Maughan 9 12 10 12 9 6660
    15 11 Like I Do - Maureen Evans 10 11 12 11 10 6480
    10 12 Let's Dance - Chris Montez 13 14 9 13 13 6440
    16 13 Up On The Roof - Kenny Lynch 11 12 13 8 12 6320
    12 14 Desafinado - Stan Getz and Charlie Byrd 14 17 15 17 15 4980
    11 15 The Swiss Maid - Del Shannon 16 21 14 20 14 4610
    18 16 Your Cheating Heart - Ray Charles 15 19 18 15 16 4400
    17 17 A Forever Kind Of Love - Bobby Vee 19 23 16 26 18 3690
    28 18 Don't You Think It's Time - Mike Berry 17 18 23 14 21 3650
    19 19 The Main Attraction - Pat Boone 21 24 17 25 20 3430
    NEW 20 Globetrotter - The Tornados 18 15 27 10 28 3340
    27 21 He's A Rebel - The Crystals 20 25 20 22 19 3060
    21 22 Me And My Shadow - Frank Sinata and Sammy Davis Jnr. 23 22 26 18 23 2540
    NEW 23 Comin' Home Baby - Mel Torme 22 16 16 24 2460
    24 24 Love Me Do - The Beatles 24 21 17 1920
    23 25 Baby Take A Bow - Adam Faith 30 19 29 1860
    20 26 Devil Woman - Marty Robbins 28 22 30 25 1580
    22 27 Must Be Madison - Joe Loss 25= 29 25 24 27 1570
    NEW 28 Diamonds - Jet Harris and Tony Meehan 25= 20 23 1500
    RE 29 Island Of Dreams - The Springfields 29 24 28 26 1350
    26 30 Up On The Roof - Julie Grant 27 25 19 1200
    Bachelor Boy - Cliff Richard 4
    29 Can Can '62 - Peter Jay and The Jaywalkers 28 450
    X Ruby Ann - Marty Robbins 27 400
    B The Lonely Bull - The Tijuana Brass 29 22 370
    B Charmaine - The Bachelors 28 300
    14 Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree - Brenda Lee 29 300
    B Just For Kicks - Mike Sarne 30 30 250
    B The Alley Cat Song - David Thorne 27 200
    We're Gonna Go Fishin' - Hank Locklin 30 100
    Keep Your Hands Off My Baby - Little Eva 30 30
    25 Sherry - The Four Seasons
    30 Venus In Blue Jeans - Mark Wynter
    * The Disc chart printed on UK Mix has an error. #20 should be The Lonely Bull by The Tijuana Brass, not, Island Of Dreams.

    Leave a comment:


  • MrTibbs
    replied
    The Shadows chart pattern is a strange one on RR, it drops from 3 to 7 the week above, then goes back to 3 , 2, 1, . But then I gave up a long time ago trying to work out the RR chart lol.

    Leave a comment:


  • brian05
    replied
    1 The Next Time / Bachelor Boy - Cliff Richard

    So Cliff at nos. 3 and 5 meant he was not no. 1 in NME chart.

    But the Shadows were no. 1 in NME although they fell from no. 3 to no. 7 in RR chart. Strange.

    Wonder what the actual sales figures for Cliff, Elvis and The Shadows were. Guess we'll never know.

    Leave a comment:


  • MrTibbs
    replied
    Originally posted by Robbie View Post
    ^
    From observation, the chart sales week for NME and MM shops changes in the early 70s. It looks like the Saturday week ending sales week changes to a Friday at the very least. So that's fewer chart shops for those two charts as well as an earlier cut off. That would explain the lack of a TOTP effect on those charts.
    Yeah I agree Robbie, I think March 1971 was the watershed year and month for them. After the postal strike when Boots and Smiths came on board the BMRB chart was finally accepted as THE chart and their charts began to diminish both in store returns and influence.

    Leave a comment:


  • Robbie
    replied
    ^
    From observation, the chart sales week for NME and MM shops changes in the early 70s. It looks like the Saturday week ending sales week changes to a Friday at the very least. So that's fewer chart shops for those two charts as well as an earlier cut off. That would explain the lack of a TOTP effect on those charts.

    Leave a comment:


  • Graham76man
    replied
    Originally posted by kingofskiffle View Post
    Melody Maker did proclaim that they had over 100 shops from 27 Aug 1960.

    BMRB would have adapted form the data received, and I think this is where the defined universe (discussed elsewhere in the 1980's Year End sales thread) comes in of being 250 record shops.
    But doesn't mean they had 100 shops taking part every week. No survey could guarantee a full compliment of shops each week. The only way you could ensure a set figure is to gather information from more shops than you actually need. So if you required 100 shops you would need at least about 150 sending them in.
    As I understand it the BMRB "defined universe" included accounting for shops that were not registered with the BMRB. And was also based on the turnover of each shop. None of the point based ever took into size of shop or sales.

    Also Mr Tibbs statements about the early years of the BMRB are false. I have monitored the 1970 charts, while doing the Real Chart and apart from the fact they only have 300 shops and no Woolies. The BMRB chart is very close at times. Whereas the NME and Melody Maker are off by miles and do not have the same response that BMRB has after a record appears on TOTP. Nine times out of Ten NME and MM will have the record lower down or even falling after TOTP. But BMRB chart does not.
    BMRB chart fails badly in 1976, due to fact it uses the wrong week, making TOTP records go up and down and is slower at changing the number one record.

    Leave a comment:


  • kjell
    replied
    It’s difficult to compare sales and rankings. The problem with sales figures is if you take a selection of shops that differs from the average when it comes to different segments of music thus preferring music tastes which are not in line with the main body of buyers. I remember 77 november 26 when both NME and MM both had Rockin’ all over the World by Status Quo at number one, and as I remember even Music Week published sales figures that confirmed the summit position, but on MWs chart page the record was only at 3.

    Leave a comment:


  • MrTibbs
    replied
    Greetings Pop Pickers !

    Here is the next Ultimate Averaged Chart for Week Ending January 5th 1963

    The Ultimate Averaged Chart - Week Ending January 5th 1963 NME MM DISC RR Total
    Last This The Sound Survey Stores 100 150 50 30 Points
    Week Week The Top 30 Singles Chart BBC TOP 30 Scored
    1 1 The Next Time / Bachelor Boy - Cliff Richard 1 3 1 1 1 9700
    2 2 Return To Sender - Elvis Presley 2 2 2 2 2 9570
    3 3 Dance On - The Shadows 3 1 3 3 7 9320
    4 4 Sun Arise - Rolf Harris 4 4 4 4 4 8910
    6 5 (Dance With The) Guitar Man - Duane Eddy 5 5 5 6 5 8530
    5 6 Lovesick Blues / She Taught Me How To Yodel - Frank Ifield 6 7 6 5 3 8290
    9 7 Bobby's Girl - Susan Maughan 7 8 8 8 6 7650
    10 8 It Only Took A Minute - Joe Brown 8 9 10 7 8 7240
    11 9 Telstar - The Tornados 11 9 7 18 9 7110
    8 10 Let's Dance - Chris Montez 9 11 9 10 10 6980
    12 11 The Swiss Maid - Del Shannon 10 17 11 12 11 5950
    15 12 Desafinado - Stan Getz and Charlie Byrd 12 12 14 12 18 5790
    18 13 Go Away Little Girl - Mark Wynter 13 13 19 9 17 5120
    7 14 Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree - Brenda Lee 15 22 12 16 12 5070
    21 15 Like I Do - Maureen Evans 17 14 16 17 19 5010
    16 16 Up On The Roof - Kenny Lynch 14 16 18 11 14 4960
    22 17 A Forever Kind Of Love - Bobby Vee 18 18 13 26 13 4790
    14 18 Your Cheating Heart - Ray Charles 16 14 20 14 15 4680
    13 19 The Main Attraction - Pat Boone 19 23 15 20 20 4080
    20 20 Devil Woman - Marty Robbins 21 28 17 22 16 3300
    19 21 Me And My Shadow - Frank Sinatra and Sammy Davis Jnr. 20 19 28 15 21 2750
    17 22 Must Be Madison - Joe Loss 22 25 23 19 23 2640
    23 23 Baby Take A Bow - Adam Faith 23 21 24 30 22 2370
    28 24 Love Me Do - The Beatles 25 21 24 1710
    25 25 Sherry - The Four Seasons 24 22 27 27 1670
    30 26 Up On The Roof - Julie Grant 20 21 1600
    NEW 27 He's A Rebel - The Crystals 26 29 27 24 30 1180
    26 28 Don't You Think It's Time - Mike Berry 24 23 1100
    NEW 29 Can Can '62 - Peter Jay and The Jaywalkers 29= 25 900
    RE 30 Venus In Blue Jeans - Mark Wynter 26 750
    Bachelor Boy - Cliff Richard 5
    B Comin' Home Baby - Mel Torme 26 500
    24 Island Of Dreams - The Springfields 27 30 28 26 450
    B Just For Kicks - Mike Sarne 29= 27 400
    Love Me Tender - Richard Chamberlain 29= 29 28 390
    B The Alley Cat Song - David Thorne 25 300
    27 Gossip Calypso - Bernard Cribbins 28 25 180
    29 We're Gonna Go Fishin' - Hank Locklin 30 29 160
    X Go Away Little Girl - Ray Bennett 29 100

    Leave a comment:


  • MrTibbs
    replied
    Thanks guys, lots of interesting stuff there.

    I don't agree though that you can't mix point based charts with a sales chart as they both come down to allocating chart positions from data at the end of the day and it is these chart positions that are used for averaging out.

    The 250 figure was not reached according to Dave until March 1971. He claimed that after the postal strike W. H. Smith and Boots came on board thus allowing for the 250 figure so I would assume that prior to this the returns were only increasing incrementally.
    Your comments also seem to support incremental increases towards this figure. So let's go with 200/150/100 for starters, Then in July 69, 200/150/125, in January 70, 200/150/150, July 70, 200/150/175, January 71, 200/150/200. this then factors in nicely with BMRB going to 250 when Boots and Smiths join in March 71. I believe also at that point that is when the NME and MM influence waned and their charts were cut back as Dave and Alan advised.

    I did take a look at Top Pops with a view to including it, but decided against this (and I know it's a disappointment to Robin) for the following reasons. It was a short lived chart, its sample was smaller than what RR originally used as it was based solely on W. H. Smith stores, and finally when I looked at it in detail some of it's positions are way off in comparison to the other three, so it would bring nothing to the table.

    I need to stress again though that the averaging process continuing into the BMRB era is purely for 'fun' to provide an insight into how this would have looked had an averaged chart continued, whilst as Robin says providing an opportunity to see the charts lined up against each other. I'm still pretty certain there is no other publication that does this and that display of this information here is a first.

    That lets me get to work on this now.

    But, for the moment 1963 beckons so let's get to it

    Leave a comment:


  • RokinRobinOfLocksley
    replied
    Good point Metalweb, that thought did cross my mind too. In this case, if a new record was calculated to appear on the fake missing MM chart, you could either (a) check the other charts NME Disc RR to see if it appeared on them that week as well, or (b) check the release date of the record in question. Not perfect, but reasonable. In doing this type of thing, we won't be getting 100% accurate results, we're just trying to get the best approximation we can with the data we have available...

    Leave a comment:


  • Metalweb
    replied
    Originally posted by RokinRobinOfLocksley View Post


    A thought: I've always wondered about this. For a missing weekly chart, how accurate/reliable would it be to average together the charts a week before and a week after, and use this for the missing week, and of course document it with a note? I haven't done any number crunching, but it would be easy to do for any 3 week test period. It'd have to be better than skipping that week, or freezing the previous week. Easy to do after the fact, but not in real time for a radio show, as you of course wouldn't know what the next week's chart positions would be, ha.
    An obvious snag - how would one treat the new entries on the second chart?

    The "averaged" missing chart could end up including records that hadn't been released at that date...

    Leave a comment:


  • Splodj
    replied
    Originally posted by RokinRobinOfLocksley View Post
    My encouraging of Brian to continue with this after Feb 1969 was primarily to get the various charts documented against one another week by week
    Even without scores the records would still need to be presented in a particular order.

    Leave a comment:

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