The Ultimate Averaged Chart - The BBC Chart Re-Imagined

[MrTibbs]

Greetings Pop Pickers !

Here is the next Ultimate Averaged Chart for Week Ending January 26th 1957

Here are all '' the uppers, the downers, the just hanging 'arounders '

The Ultimate Averaged Chart - Week Ending January 26th 1957							NME	MM	RM	Total
Last	This		The Sound Survey			Stores	65	25	60	Points
Week	Week		The Top 30 Singles Chart					TOP	30	Scored
3	1	The Garden Of Eden - Frankie Vaughan *					1	1	3	4380
1	2	Singing The Blues - Guy Mitchell					2	2	1	4410
2	3	Singing The Blues - Tommy Steele					4	3	2	4195
5	4	Friendly Persuasion - Pat Boone					3	4	5	4055
4	5	True Love - Bing Crosby and Grace Kelly					5	6	4	3935
8	6	St. Therese Of The Roses - Malcolm Vaughan					6	5	6	3775
6	7	Green Door - Frankie Vaughan					9	9	7	3420
9	8	Cindy Oh Cindy - Eddie Fisher					7	8	11	3335
7	9	Just Walking In The Rain - Johnnie Ray					8	7	12	3235
13	10	Don't You Rock Me Daddy-O - Lonnie Donegan					12	11	8	3115
11	11	Blueberry Hill - Fats Domino					10	13	10	3075
10	12	Hound Dog - Elvis Presley (A)					10	9	13	2995
14	13	Moonlight Gambler - Frankie Laine					13	12	9	2965
15	14	Love Me Tender - Elvis Presley					13		14	2190
12	15	Rip It Up - Bill Haley and His Comets					15	14	20	2125
23	16	You Don't Owe Me A Thing / Look Homeward Angel - Johnnie Ray					17	17	19	1980
16	17	The Garden Of Eden - Gary Miller					21	15	17	1890
NEW	18	The Adoration Waltz - David Whitfield					16		16	1875
NEW	19	Don't You Rock Me Daddy-O - The Vipers Skiffle Group					24	17	15	1765
20	20	The Garden Of Eden - Joe Valino					29		17	970
NEW	21	It Isn't Right / You'll Never Never Know - The Platters					23	16		895
19	22	The Garden Of Eden - Dick James					18			845
22	23	You Me And Us - Alma Cogan					19			780
RE	24	Rocking Through The Rye - Bill Haley and His Comets					20			715
18	25	Two Different Worlds - Ronnie Hilton					21			650
21	26	A Woman In Love - Frankie Laine					25			390
25	27	Don't Be Cruel - Elvis Presley (B)						17		350
RE	27	The Green Door - Jim Lowe						17		350
17	29	Blue Moon - Elvis Presley					26			325
28	30	Rock Around The Clock - Bill Haley and His Comets					27			260
		My Prayer - The Platters					28			195
		Ain't That A Shame - Fats Domino					30			65
24		Ain't That A Shame - Pat Boone
26		I'll Be Home - Pat Boone
27		A House With Love In It - Vera Lynn
29		See You Later Alligator - Bill Haley and His Comets
30		When Mexico Gave Up The Rumba - Mitchell Torok
		* 3 Point Rule Applied

[MrTibbs]

Back in these times jazz was an important part of popular music and some shops specialized in that. At least one of them sent dealers returns to RM as I remember. What is important is that those dealer charts is the only way to increase our insight into the years till 1960 and also to check against RR till the spring of 61. Looking into what Brian said a few weeks ago I feel sure that there is a wealth of additional interesting info there that can be better structured by far than the Colin Driscoll book.

If we ever get to escape these dreadful times kjell and REALLY get to move around again with complete confidence I still intend to get back down to London to grab the RM dealer charts for the remainder of 1955 till RM discontinued printing them. They are an important part of chart history and the only surviving evidence we have of the raw data used to compile early charts.

[MrTibbs]

I must have put it badly. I was not suggesting changing the NME chart, just applying the mid-point system using it and the other either-side charts in years where the NME-only chart has strange positionings. Indeed if the NME-only chart looked like a smooth transition between the either-side charts I would be happy to go with it alone.

Your valuable take on things is always welcome Splodj as I find your comments well thought out and informative. I'll be doing the 1957 end of year mid point chart on Friday for MM and RM so it will also be interesting to see if the NME chart looks better this time around.

[kjell]

Back in these times jazz was an important part of popular music and some shops specialized in that. At least one of them sent dealers returns to RM as I remember. What is important is that those dealer charts is the only way to increase our insight into the years till 1960 and also to check against RR till the spring of 61. Looking into what Brian said a few weeks ago I feel sure that there is a wealth of additional interesting info there that can be better structured by far than the Colin Driscoll book.

[MrTibbs]

Yeah it was Brian my father had it and I heard it often enough lol

[Splodj]

I must have put it badly. I was not suggesting changing the NME chart, just applying the mid-point system using it and the other either-side charts in years where the NME-only chart has strange positionings. Indeed if the NME-only chart looked like a smooth transition between the either-side charts I would be happy to go with it alone.

[brian05]

Another LP in the NME chart.

29 Lonnie Donegan Showcase (LP) - Lonnie Donegan

Apparently it was a 10 inch record.

[MrTibbs]

Thanks for that detailed commentary Lonnie. Lots of interesting, relevant, and supportive points raised by you.

The insight given to me by the early dealer returns posted in RM in 1954/1955 came as a revelation to me. I previously assumed (naively as it turned out) that these would be a clear unambiguous list of each store's best selling ten singles which largely were similar store by store with clear information and with just a few differing songs on each list. What I found was although some stores did present week on week a good structured meaningful list, lots of others did not. Some combined sides, some separated them, some listed one record along with a list of artists jointly, some had records and wrong artist and some right artist and wrong title, and that's just the issues that spring to mind.

Also lots of charts bore no resemblance to each other, even stores close to each other could list a different ten bestselling records.
So against this backdrop I can well understand that a) music papers experienced considerable head scratching when trying to compile a competent chart from this jumble of information and b) therefore the end result produced a chart of sorts but not a definitive or robust outcome.

[kingofskiffle]

There is a whole piece around statistical analysis and what is and is not accurate data to accept or to ignore. As MrTibbs says, the originals are flawed, but thats all we have. Ignoring Record Mirror, we do not have the original data to re-compile the chart. And even then, we can not assume that the original data is accurate or reliable. We saw allegations (some proven some not) of hyping into the 1980’s as the returns where tried to be manipulated.

So, let’s assume that what we have is accurate. It’s all we can do. So, with that in mind, if the data source is accurate, statistics then goes to look at outliers and anomalies to remove those. If we where in the 1952-1954 period (Of a Top 12) I would agree that most charts could be re-compiled as a hybrid of previous and following week, due to the slow nature of those charts. However, I would be against changing, as MrTibbs says, any chart we do have. You can argue - as many have - that the compilation methods of this or that chart are suspect /perfect etc but the point I’m making is that what we have is accurate for that specific charts compilation method - looking at the gaps is more worthwhile.

I agree completely that we could try and create a missing chart. I also agree that this process MrTibbs uses is okay and is statistically accurate. Indeed, there are methods to create missing data that use pretty much the same approach (wrapped in mathematical language) for large data sets. I think the key though is the word ‘large’ as if you have a large sample the resulting errors will be minor. Now, clearly we have no large sample to choose from to locate the missing week, but I agree that Christmas week is probably the easiest to produce using this method as, effectively, ‘no’ new entries would be present. Now, that is of course not accurate as sometimes a record released three months before would chart for 1 week just because but, again, we are using the data set we have available rather than a huge set of data so whilst we can not say for certain, again, this method is as good as any and does have some basis in mathematical theory, so I certainly do not dismiss it, nor offer an alternative that is better.

For myself, I feel that creating these is not a good idea in the case - and only in the case - where the created chart is being passed off as a sales chart of the time. And I want to make that distinction, because I know absolutely that this is not what MrTibbs is doing. I say this simply because, for the weeks when a Top 30 was compiled in the 1970’s, some have created a Top 50 for those weeks. I feel that this is not a good thing to do. However, in the case of the UAC which is trying to merge multiple charts to find a smoothing affect across the many charts of the 1950’s and 1960’s, I feel that this approach does work well.

The charts here are a product of their time and a product of the technology available at that point. Indeed, if you want a truly accurate chart I think only the download chart comes close to that, as all digital sales are logged with the OCC and have been since day 1. Only a digital age like that - whereby all stores report their data - can be 100% accurate. There, that’s my controversial statement for this post! But we only have what we are working with here.

I also agree that NME is, at least in this era, the gold standard so I would be loath to edit it. Melody Maker was the gold standard for a period in the 1960’s (when it had that huge sample size) so that’s the one I would not edit in that era.

I’ve really enjoyed looking at this and reading the discussion.

[MrTibbs]

In my view, it would depend on whether there were some strange positionings in the NME chart that need ironing out - as there were this year.

I'm not convinced I should tamper with NME though Splodj as they did compile a chart and we are only assuming they used a reduced sample, so we have to accept it at face value as we do any chart of the time. If we were to accept the argument of 'strange positioning' then the same point could be made on any chart at any given time as there was always one a bit out of step with the others.

All of these fifties charts continuing through the sixties to the BMRB period were highly suspect as to anything like accuracy. They couldn't be accurate given that all were points based on unsubstantiated and often flawed returns from stores. Add to that they all used different rules as to split sides, ties, EP's, etc to further complicate the matter.

They were a product of their time and at best a really good guide as to what was most popular on any given week. BUT, 2 factors do support at least this. All of the charts although largely in slightly different order did agree on the same records being present at the upper end of the chart, and secondly by the averaging process (like the BBC and UAC). This ironed out inconsistencies in any given individual chart that was an outlier finding the middle ground agreed by the majority of other charts to give a more balanced chart to best represent this period in chart history.

[Splodj]

In my view, it would depend on whether there were some strange positionings in the NME chart that need ironing out - as there were this year.

[MrTibbs]

I think it is more suitable for the Christmas week because normally there will be less movement in the chart than at other times. In particular, as there will not have been any recent new releases, new entries are unlikely. New entries, I suggest, are difficult to deal with effectively under this system.

I think that is a relevant point actually and entirely consistent with the reasons given. My own viewpoint at this stage is that the mid point charts December 29th for MM and RM are a relatively good guesstimate in the absence of the real thing supported by slow chart movement for the end of year week anyway. Comments received from you guys thus far on this topic also seem to indicate a positive response to the exercise. I also must agree with Robin's thinking and logic that mid point charts are better than having nothing at all. They fill a necessary gap.

But one swallow doth not a summer make. I'm way ahead in UAC compilation working on December 1957. The same situation is about to arrive in MM and RM not compiling an end of year chart. So I will repeat the exercise of compiling mid point charts here too and see if they too look a 'good fit' for the missing week.
I will repeat this for non compiled charts at the end of 58 and 59 too.

This will give us 4 years of a mid point chart to evaluate. This more robust overview of 4 sample years can then influence the decision on the validity of the exercise and whether to extend the process to the year end charts of the sixties.

Keep on keeping on

[Splodj]

I think it is more suitable for the Christmas week because normally there will be less movement in the chart than at other times. In particular, as there will not have been any recent new releases, new entries are unlikely. New entries, I suggest, are difficult to deal with effectively under this system.

[RokinRobinOfLocksley]

Thanks Brian for the midpoint x 3 + 2 chart. I need to study it further, but at first look it does seem most meaningful to me.

FYI for everybody, of course we can test this midpoint strategy for any 3 week period of any chart, not just missing Christmas charts. Just combine weeks 1 and 3 for a midpoint chart, and compare it to the actual week 2 chart. That will show you the validity of this option over skipping, freezing, or back freezing. Rock on !!

[kjell]

Seems to be several causes at work here. As has already been said the actual chart for this week is probably based on fewer returns than usual which affects the actual chart but not the constructed chart. The main problem mathematically with a constructed chart is that leaps and falls at the lower end have bigger changes than at the higher end. This has to do with smaller sales differences at the bottom and with the diffusion of info for records on the increase. In addition to that there’s the problem of which positions do new hits have in the non hit week and likewise falling down hits in the same week. I expected strange movements, but admittedly not that much difference between the actual chart and the constructed. My conclusion is that this way of constructing charts can be made when a week has no actual charts and that the positions of the week should be written in italics.

[MrTibbs]

Mid Point Chart - Week Ending December 29th 1956							NME	MM	RM	Total
Actual						Stores	65	20	60	Points
NME	UAC	Mid-Point Comparison Chart NME MM RM						TOP	30	Scored
1	1	Just Walking In The Rain - Johnnie Ray					1	1	1	4350
2	2	Singing The Blues - Guy Mitchell					2	2	1	4265
3	3	Green Door - Frankie Vaughan					2	3	3	4125
3	4	St. Therese Of The Roses - Malcolm Vaughan					4	4	4	3915
6	5	Cindy Oh Cindy - Eddie Fisher					5	4	6	3730
9	6	Rip It Up - Bill Haley and His Comets					7	7	5	3600
5	7	True Love - Bing Crosby and Grace Kelly					6	8	7	3525
16	8	Hound Dog - Elvis Presley (A)					8	8	8	3335
10	9	My Prayer - The Platters					11	6	8	3180
12	10	A Woman In Love - Frankie Laine					9	11	10	3090
17	11	Singing The Blues - Tommy Steele					12	10	10	2915
11	12	Love Me Tender - Elvis Presley					12	13	12	2735
7	13	Make It A Party - Winifred Atwell					10	14	14	2725
22	14	Blue Moon - Elvis Presley					19	14	13	2200
13	15	More - Jimmy Young					15	16	17	2180
	16	Rock Around The Clock - Bill Haley and His Comets					23	18	15	1740
	20	Rocking Through The Rye - Bill Haley and His Comets					23	16	16	1720
15	18	When Mexico Gave Up The Rumba - Mitchell Torok					12	12		1615
25	19	Blueberry Hill - Fats Domino					25	20	20	1270
21	20	Two Different Worlds - Ronnie Hilton					17	19		1150
8	21	Christmas Island - Dickie Valentine					16			975
19	22	Friendly Persuasion - Pat Boone					17			910
18	23	A House With Love In It - Vera Lynn					19			780
	23	The Green Door - Jim Lowe							18	780
20	23	Cindy Oh Cindy - Tony Brent					19			780
	26	Sing With Shand - Jimmy Shand							19	720
14	27	Moonlight Gambler - Frankie Laine					22			585
30	28	Love Me As Though There Were No Tomorrow - Nat King Cole					26	20		545
26	29	I Don't Care If The Sun Don't Shine - Elvis Presley (B)					26			325
30	29	Rudy's Rock - Bill Haley and His Comets					26			325
29		Lonnie Donegan Showcase (LP) - Lonnie Donegan					29			130
23		Christmas And You - Dave King					30			65
27		A Letter To A Soldier - Barbara Lyon					30			65
24		Join In And Sing No 3 - The Johnston Brothers								0
28		All Of You - Sammy Davis Jnr.

[MrTibbs]

Brian, could you add the Dec 29 MM and RM midpoint charts to your NME midpoint chart posting above? It would be worth a look to compare all of them against each other. Cheers...

Here is that chart Robin and guys.

I am interested in hearing what outcome all you mathematicians and statisticians make of this chart and comparisons. (Maths and statistics are not my forte, I was always better at English and Arithmetic).
The outcome is important as it will determine whether or not non compiled charts for other years will be converted in the same manner, or not.

The first column relates to the actual compiled NME chart for 29th December (I certainly believe this could be a 'skeleton' chart given that quite a few records climbed back up the chart again on 5th January). The second column is the complimentary UAC average of all three mid-point averaged charts. Then side by side the NME, MM, RM, mid-point charts for comparison.

Happy scrutinising Pop Pickers !

Brian

[setg1]

On 22 January 1955, "Mr. Sandman" was a top 20 hit for four artists on the NME chart:

9. Dickie Valentine
11. The Four Aces
12. The Chordettes
16. Max Bygraves

That was the only week the Max Bygraves version charted, the other three charted simultaneously in several other weeks. I had to check that one, as I knew the song had a lot of hit versions.

[MrTibbs]

No Robbie, on NME in 1955 (pre UAC era) 4 versions of Stranger In Paradise were in the Top 20 on 30th April simultaneously, a 5th version made it on 14th May although one of the previous versions had dropped out be then.
The same year on 18th June 4 versions of Unchained Melody were simultaneously in the Top 20.
So 4 simultaneously seems to be the record achieved by above 2 songs and Garden Of Eden (on UAC).

Unless someone knows different

[Robbie]

Four versions of the same song in the top 20 plus two versions of Singing The Blues... is this the last (or only?) time four versions of the same song were in the top 20?

[MrTibbs]

The battle is over before it's even started with The Garden Of Eden as Frankie Vaughan leaps 11 places to #3 leaving the three other versions stranded in its wake in the lower quarter of the Top 20. That said it speaks volumes for the popularity of the song that 4 versions make the Top 20.

Lonnie Donegan kicks off what will be his best ever year chart wise with a very high new entry at #13.

On the UAC Guy Mitchell stops Tommy Steele's version of 'Singing' in its tracks preventing it from reaching the chart summit.

Although differing in actual chart positions all three music paper charts agree on what the ten best selling singles are.

[MrTibbs]

Greetings Pop Pickers !

Here is the next Ultimate Averaged Chart for Week Ending January 19th 1957

Here are all '' the uppers, the downers, the just hanging 'arounders '

The Ultimate Averaged Chart - Week Ending January 19th 1957							NME	MM	RM	Total
Last	This		The Sound Survey			Stores	65	25	60	Points
Week	Week		The Top 30 Singles Chart					TOP	30	Scored
1	1	Singing The Blues - Guy Mitchell					1	1	2	4440
2	2	Singing The Blues - Tommy Steele					2	2	1	4410
14	3	The Garden Of Eden - Frankie Vaughan					3	3	3	4200
6	4	True Love - Bing Crosby and Grace Kelly					5	8	4	3885
9	5	Friendly Persuasion - Pat Boone					4	6	6	3880
3	6	Green Door - Frankie Vaughan					6	4	5	3860
4	7	Just Walking In The Rain - Johnnie Ray					7	5	8	3590
5	8	St. Therese Of The Roses - Malcolm Vaughan					8	7	7	3535
7	9	Cindy Oh Cindy - Eddie Fisher					9	9	9	3300
8	10	Hound Dog - Elvis Presley (A)					10	10	10	3150
11	11	Blueberry Hill - Fats Domino					12	12	11	2910
10	12	Rip It Up - Bill Haley and His Comets					11	13	14	2770
NEW	13	Don't You Rock Me Daddy-O - Lonnie Donegan					13	14	12	2735
13	14	Moonlight Gambler - Frankie Laine					16	11	13	2555
15	15	Love Me Tender - Elvis Presley					15	19	15	2300
12	16	The Garden Of Eden - Gary Miller					14	20	16	2280
18	17	Blue Moon - Elvis Presley					17	17	17	2100
23	18	Two Different Worlds - Ronnie Hilton					19	20	20	1715
25	19	The Garden Of Eden - Dick James					23	20	18	1575
NEW	20	The Garden Of Eden - Joe Valino					23		19	1240
17	21	A Woman In Love - Frankie Laine					20	16		1090
NEW	22	You Me And Us - Alma Cogan					18			845
NEW	23	You Don't Owe Me A Thing / Look Homeward Angel - Johnnie Ray					21			650
28	24	Ain't That A Shame - Pat Boone					22			585
21	25	Don't Be Cruel - Elvis Presley (B)						15		400
22	26	I'll Be Home - Pat Boone					25			390
24	27	A House With Love In It - Vera Lynn					26			325
19	28	Rock Around The Clock - Bill Haley and His Comets						18		325
RE	29	See You Later Alligator - Bill Haley and His Comets						20		275
20	30	When Mexico Gave Up The Rumba - Mitchell Torok					27			260
16		More - Jimmy Young					28			195
26		Rocking Through The Rye - Bill Haley and His Comets					29			130
27		My Prayer - The Platters					30			65
29		A Letter To A Soldier - Barbara Lyon
30		Make It A Party - Winifred Atwell

[MrTibbs]

Thanks Brian. I'd also suggest adding the actual NME chart with the 3 midpoint charts, so we can see all 4 up against each other. Cheerz...

Sounds like a good idea to me

[RokinRobinOfLocksley]

Thanks Brian. I'd also suggest adding the actual NME chart with the 3 midpoint charts, so we can see all 4 up against each other. Cheerz...

[MrTibbs]

Brian, could you add the Dec 29 MM and RM midpoint charts to your NME midpoint chart posting above? It would be worth a look to compare all of them against each other. Cheers...

Yup no prob. Will do tomorrow Robin as working today I will do a chart featuring all 3 midpoint charts to see how the outcome looks