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The Ultimate Averaged Chart - The BBC Chart Re-Imagined

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  • MrTibbs
    replied
    Greetings Pop Pickers !

    Here is the next Ultimate Averaged Chart for Week Ending January 26th 1957

    Here are all '' the uppers, the downers, the just hanging 'arounders '

    The Ultimate Averaged Chart - Week Ending January 26th 1957 NME MM RM Total
    Last This The Sound Survey Stores 65 25 60 Points
    Week Week The Top 30 Singles Chart TOP 30 Scored
    3 1 The Garden Of Eden - Frankie Vaughan * 1 1 3 4380
    1 2 Singing The Blues - Guy Mitchell 2 2 1 4410
    2 3 Singing The Blues - Tommy Steele 4 3 2 4195
    5 4 Friendly Persuasion - Pat Boone 3 4 5 4055
    4 5 True Love - Bing Crosby and Grace Kelly 5 6 4 3935
    8 6 St. Therese Of The Roses - Malcolm Vaughan 6 5 6 3775
    6 7 Green Door - Frankie Vaughan 9 9 7 3420
    9 8 Cindy Oh Cindy - Eddie Fisher 7 8 11 3335
    7 9 Just Walking In The Rain - Johnnie Ray 8 7 12 3235
    13 10 Don't You Rock Me Daddy-O - Lonnie Donegan 12 11 8 3115
    11 11 Blueberry Hill - Fats Domino 10 13 10 3075
    10 12 Hound Dog - Elvis Presley (A) 10 9 13 2995
    14 13 Moonlight Gambler - Frankie Laine 13 12 9 2965
    15 14 Love Me Tender - Elvis Presley 13 14 2190
    12 15 Rip It Up - Bill Haley and His Comets 15 14 20 2125
    23 16 You Don't Owe Me A Thing / Look Homeward Angel - Johnnie Ray 17 17 19 1980
    16 17 The Garden Of Eden - Gary Miller 21 15 17 1890
    NEW 18 The Adoration Waltz - David Whitfield 16 16 1875
    NEW 19 Don't You Rock Me Daddy-O - The Vipers Skiffle Group 24 17 15 1765
    20 20 The Garden Of Eden - Joe Valino 29 17 970
    NEW 21 It Isn't Right / You'll Never Never Know - The Platters 23 16 895
    19 22 The Garden Of Eden - Dick James 18 845
    22 23 You Me And Us - Alma Cogan 19 780
    RE 24 Rocking Through The Rye - Bill Haley and His Comets 20 715
    18 25 Two Different Worlds - Ronnie Hilton 21 650
    21 26 A Woman In Love - Frankie Laine 25 390
    25 27 Don't Be Cruel - Elvis Presley (B) 17 350
    RE 27 The Green Door - Jim Lowe 17 350
    17 29 Blue Moon - Elvis Presley 26 325
    28 30 Rock Around The Clock - Bill Haley and His Comets 27 260
    My Prayer - The Platters 28 195
    Ain't That A Shame - Fats Domino 30 65
    24 Ain't That A Shame - Pat Boone
    26 I'll Be Home - Pat Boone
    27 A House With Love In It - Vera Lynn
    29 See You Later Alligator - Bill Haley and His Comets
    30 When Mexico Gave Up The Rumba - Mitchell Torok
    * 3 Point Rule Applied

    Leave a comment:


  • MrTibbs
    replied
    Originally posted by kjell View Post
    Back in these times jazz was an important part of popular music and some shops specialized in that. At least one of them sent dealers returns to RM as I remember. What is important is that those dealer charts is the only way to increase our insight into the years till 1960 and also to check against RR till the spring of 61. Looking into what Brian said a few weeks ago I feel sure that there is a wealth of additional interesting info there that can be better structured by far than the Colin Driscoll book.
    If we ever get to escape these dreadful times kjell and REALLY get to move around again with complete confidence I still intend to get back down to London to grab the RM dealer charts for the remainder of 1955 till RM discontinued printing them. They are an important part of chart history and the only surviving evidence we have of the raw data used to compile early charts.

    Leave a comment:


  • MrTibbs
    replied
    Originally posted by Splodj View Post
    I must have put it badly. I was not suggesting changing the NME chart, just applying the mid-point system using it and the other either-side charts in years where the NME-only chart has strange positionings. Indeed if the NME-only chart looked like a smooth transition between the either-side charts I would be happy to go with it alone.
    Your valuable take on things is always welcome Splodj as I find your comments well thought out and informative. I'll be doing the 1957 end of year mid point chart on Friday for MM and RM so it will also be interesting to see if the NME chart looks better this time around.

    Leave a comment:


  • kjell
    replied
    Back in these times jazz was an important part of popular music and some shops specialized in that. At least one of them sent dealers returns to RM as I remember. What is important is that those dealer charts is the only way to increase our insight into the years till 1960 and also to check against RR till the spring of 61. Looking into what Brian said a few weeks ago I feel sure that there is a wealth of additional interesting info there that can be better structured by far than the Colin Driscoll book.

    Leave a comment:


  • MrTibbs
    commented on 's reply
    Yeah it was Brian my father had it and I heard it often enough lol

  • Splodj
    replied
    I must have put it badly. I was not suggesting changing the NME chart, just applying the mid-point system using it and the other either-side charts in years where the NME-only chart has strange positionings. Indeed if the NME-only chart looked like a smooth transition between the either-side charts I would be happy to go with it alone.

    Leave a comment:


  • brian05
    replied
    Another LP in the NME chart.

    29 Lonnie Donegan Showcase (LP) - Lonnie Donegan

    Apparently it was a 10 inch record.

    Leave a comment:


  • MrTibbs
    replied
    Thanks for that detailed commentary Lonnie. Lots of interesting, relevant, and supportive points raised by you.

    The insight given to me by the early dealer returns posted in RM in 1954/1955 came as a revelation to me. I previously assumed (naively as it turned out) that these would be a clear unambiguous list of each store's best selling ten singles which largely were similar store by store with clear information and with just a few differing songs on each list. What I found was although some stores did present week on week a good structured meaningful list, lots of others did not. Some combined sides, some separated them, some listed one record along with a list of artists jointly, some had records and wrong artist and some right artist and wrong title, and that's just the issues that spring to mind.

    Also lots of charts bore no resemblance to each other, even stores close to each other could list a different ten bestselling records.
    So against this backdrop I can well understand that a) music papers experienced considerable head scratching when trying to compile a competent chart from this jumble of information and b) therefore the end result produced a chart of sorts but not a definitive or robust outcome.

    Leave a comment:


  • kingofskiffle
    replied
    There is a whole piece around statistical analysis and what is and is not accurate data to accept or to ignore. As MrTibbs says, the originals are flawed, but thats all we have. Ignoring Record Mirror, we do not have the original data to re-compile the chart. And even then, we can not assume that the original data is accurate or reliable. We saw allegations (some proven some not) of hyping into the 1980’s as the returns where tried to be manipulated.

    So, let’s assume that what we have is accurate. It’s all we can do. So, with that in mind, if the data source is accurate, statistics then goes to look at outliers and anomalies to remove those. If we where in the 1952-1954 period (Of a Top 12) I would agree that most charts could be re-compiled as a hybrid of previous and following week, due to the slow nature of those charts. However, I would be against changing, as MrTibbs says, any chart we do have. You can argue - as many have - that the compilation methods of this or that chart are suspect /perfect etc but the point I’m making is that what we have is accurate for that specific charts compilation method - looking at the gaps is more worthwhile.

    I agree completely that we could try and create a missing chart. I also agree that this process MrTibbs uses is okay and is statistically accurate. Indeed, there are methods to create missing data that use pretty much the same approach (wrapped in mathematical language) for large data sets. I think the key though is the word ‘large’ as if you have a large sample the resulting errors will be minor. Now, clearly we have no large sample to choose from to locate the missing week, but I agree that Christmas week is probably the easiest to produce using this method as, effectively, ‘no’ new entries would be present. Now, that is of course not accurate as sometimes a record released three months before would chart for 1 week just because but, again, we are using the data set we have available rather than a huge set of data so whilst we can not say for certain, again, this method is as good as any and does have some basis in mathematical theory, so I certainly do not dismiss it, nor offer an alternative that is better.

    For myself, I feel that creating these is not a good idea in the case - and only in the case - where the created chart is being passed off as a sales chart of the time. And I want to make that distinction, because I know absolutely that this is not what MrTibbs is doing. I say this simply because, for the weeks when a Top 30 was compiled in the 1970’s, some have created a Top 50 for those weeks. I feel that this is not a good thing to do. However, in the case of the UAC which is trying to merge multiple charts to find a smoothing affect across the many charts of the 1950’s and 1960’s, I feel that this approach does work well.

    The charts here are a product of their time and a product of the technology available at that point. Indeed, if you want a truly accurate chart I think only the download chart comes close to that, as all digital sales are logged with the OCC and have been since day 1. Only a digital age like that - whereby all stores report their data - can be 100% accurate. There, that’s my controversial statement for this post! But we only have what we are working with here.

    I also agree that NME is, at least in this era, the gold standard so I would be loath to edit it. Melody Maker was the gold standard for a period in the 1960’s (when it had that huge sample size) so that’s the one I would not edit in that era.

    I’ve really enjoyed looking at this and reading the discussion.

    Leave a comment:


  • MrTibbs
    replied
    Originally posted by Splodj View Post
    In my view, it would depend on whether there were some strange positionings in the NME chart that need ironing out - as there were this year.
    I'm not convinced I should tamper with NME though Splodj as they did compile a chart and we are only assuming they used a reduced sample, so we have to accept it at face value as we do any chart of the time. If we were to accept the argument of 'strange positioning' then the same point could be made on any chart at any given time as there was always one a bit out of step with the others.

    All of these fifties charts continuing through the sixties to the BMRB period were highly suspect as to anything like accuracy. They couldn't be accurate given that all were points based on unsubstantiated and often flawed returns from stores. Add to that they all used different rules as to split sides, ties, EP's, etc to further complicate the matter.

    They were a product of their time and at best a really good guide as to what was most popular on any given week. BUT, 2 factors do support at least this. All of the charts although largely in slightly different order did agree on the same records being present at the upper end of the chart, and secondly by the averaging process (like the BBC and UAC). This ironed out inconsistencies in any given individual chart that was an outlier finding the middle ground agreed by the majority of other charts to give a more balanced chart to best represent this period in chart history.

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  • Splodj
    replied
    In my view, it would depend on whether there were some strange positionings in the NME chart that need ironing out - as there were this year.

    Leave a comment:


  • MrTibbs
    replied
    Originally posted by Splodj View Post
    I think it is more suitable for the Christmas week because normally there will be less movement in the chart than at other times. In particular, as there will not have been any recent new releases, new entries are unlikely. New entries, I suggest, are difficult to deal with effectively under this system.
    I think that is a relevant point actually and entirely consistent with the reasons given. My own viewpoint at this stage is that the mid point charts December 29th for MM and RM are a relatively good guesstimate in the absence of the real thing supported by slow chart movement for the end of year week anyway. Comments received from you guys thus far on this topic also seem to indicate a positive response to the exercise. I also must agree with Robin's thinking and logic that mid point charts are better than having nothing at all. They fill a necessary gap.

    But one swallow doth not a summer make. I'm way ahead in UAC compilation working on December 1957. The same situation is about to arrive in MM and RM not compiling an end of year chart. So I will repeat the exercise of compiling mid point charts here too and see if they too look a 'good fit' for the missing week.
    I will repeat this for non compiled charts at the end of 58 and 59 too.

    This will give us 4 years of a mid point chart to evaluate. This more robust overview of 4 sample years can then influence the decision on the validity of the exercise and whether to extend the process to the year end charts of the sixties.

    Keep on keeping on

    Leave a comment:


  • Splodj
    replied
    I think it is more suitable for the Christmas week because normally there will be less movement in the chart than at other times. In particular, as there will not have been any recent new releases, new entries are unlikely. New entries, I suggest, are difficult to deal with effectively under this system.

    Leave a comment:


  • RokinRobinOfLocksley
    replied
    Thanks Brian for the midpoint x 3 + 2 chart. I need to study it further, but at first look it does seem most meaningful to me.

    FYI for everybody, of course we can test this midpoint strategy for any 3 week period of any chart, not just missing Christmas charts. Just combine weeks 1 and 3 for a midpoint chart, and compare it to the actual week 2 chart. That will show you the validity of this option over skipping, freezing, or back freezing. Rock on !!

    Leave a comment:


  • kjell
    replied
    Seems to be several causes at work here. As has already been said the actual chart for this week is probably based on fewer returns than usual which affects the actual chart but not the constructed chart. The main problem mathematically with a constructed chart is that leaps and falls at the lower end have bigger changes than at the higher end. This has to do with smaller sales differences at the bottom and with the diffusion of info for records on the increase. In addition to that there’s the problem of which positions do new hits have in the non hit week and likewise falling down hits in the same week. I expected strange movements, but admittedly not that much difference between the actual chart and the constructed. My conclusion is that this way of constructing charts can be made when a week has no actual charts and that the positions of the week should be written in italics.

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  • MrTibbs
    replied
    Mid Point Chart - Week Ending December 29th 1956 NME MM RM Total
    Actual Stores 65 20 60 Points
    NME UAC Mid-Point Comparison Chart NME MM RM TOP 30 Scored
    1 1 Just Walking In The Rain - Johnnie Ray 1 1 1 4350
    2 2 Singing The Blues - Guy Mitchell 2 2 1 4265
    3 3 Green Door - Frankie Vaughan 2 3 3 4125
    3 4 St. Therese Of The Roses - Malcolm Vaughan 4 4 4 3915
    6 5 Cindy Oh Cindy - Eddie Fisher 5 4 6 3730
    9 6 Rip It Up - Bill Haley and His Comets 7 7 5 3600
    5 7 True Love - Bing Crosby and Grace Kelly 6 8 7 3525
    16 8 Hound Dog - Elvis Presley (A) 8 8 8 3335
    10 9 My Prayer - The Platters 11 6 8 3180
    12 10 A Woman In Love - Frankie Laine 9 11 10 3090
    17 11 Singing The Blues - Tommy Steele 12 10 10 2915
    11 12 Love Me Tender - Elvis Presley 12 13 12 2735
    7 13 Make It A Party - Winifred Atwell 10 14 14 2725
    22 14 Blue Moon - Elvis Presley 19 14 13 2200
    13 15 More - Jimmy Young 15 16 17 2180
    16 Rock Around The Clock - Bill Haley and His Comets 23 18 15 1740
    20 Rocking Through The Rye - Bill Haley and His Comets 23 16 16 1720
    15 18 When Mexico Gave Up The Rumba - Mitchell Torok 12 12 1615
    25 19 Blueberry Hill - Fats Domino 25 20 20 1270
    21 20 Two Different Worlds - Ronnie Hilton 17 19 1150
    8 21 Christmas Island - Dickie Valentine 16 975
    19 22 Friendly Persuasion - Pat Boone 17 910
    18 23 A House With Love In It - Vera Lynn 19 780
    23 The Green Door - Jim Lowe 18 780
    20 23 Cindy Oh Cindy - Tony Brent 19 780
    26 Sing With Shand - Jimmy Shand 19 720
    14 27 Moonlight Gambler - Frankie Laine 22 585
    30 28 Love Me As Though There Were No Tomorrow - Nat King Cole 26 20 545
    26 29 I Don't Care If The Sun Don't Shine - Elvis Presley (B) 26 325
    30 29 Rudy's Rock - Bill Haley and His Comets 26 325
    29 Lonnie Donegan Showcase (LP) - Lonnie Donegan 29 130
    23 Christmas And You - Dave King 30 65
    27 A Letter To A Soldier - Barbara Lyon 30 65
    24 Join In And Sing No 3 - The Johnston Brothers 0
    28 All Of You - Sammy Davis Jnr.

    Leave a comment:


  • MrTibbs
    replied
    Originally posted by RokinRobinOfLocksley View Post
    Brian, could you add the Dec 29 MM and RM midpoint charts to your NME midpoint chart posting above? It would be worth a look to compare all of them against each other. Cheers...
    Here is that chart Robin and guys.

    I am interested in hearing what outcome all you mathematicians and statisticians make of this chart and comparisons. (Maths and statistics are not my forte, I was always better at English and Arithmetic).
    The outcome is important as it will determine whether or not non compiled charts for other years will be converted in the same manner, or not.

    The first column relates to the actual compiled NME chart for 29th December (I certainly believe this could be a 'skeleton' chart given that quite a few records climbed back up the chart again on 5th January). The second column is the complimentary UAC average of all three mid-point averaged charts. Then side by side the NME, MM, RM, mid-point charts for comparison.

    Happy scrutinising Pop Pickers !

    Brian

    Leave a comment:


  • setg1
    replied
    On 22 January 1955, "Mr. Sandman" was a top 20 hit for four artists on the NME chart:

    9. Dickie Valentine
    11. The Four Aces
    12. The Chordettes
    16. Max Bygraves

    That was the only week the Max Bygraves version charted, the other three charted simultaneously in several other weeks. I had to check that one, as I knew the song had a lot of hit versions.

    Leave a comment:


  • MrTibbs
    replied
    No Robbie, on NME in 1955 (pre UAC era) 4 versions of Stranger In Paradise were in the Top 20 on 30th April simultaneously, a 5th version made it on 14th May although one of the previous versions had dropped out be then.
    The same year on 18th June 4 versions of Unchained Melody were simultaneously in the Top 20.
    So 4 simultaneously seems to be the record achieved by above 2 songs and Garden Of Eden (on UAC).

    Unless someone knows different

    Leave a comment:


  • Robbie
    replied
    Four versions of the same song in the top 20 plus two versions of Singing The Blues... is this the last (or only?) time four versions of the same song were in the top 20?

    Leave a comment:


  • MrTibbs
    replied
    The battle is over before it's even started with The Garden Of Eden as Frankie Vaughan leaps 11 places to #3 leaving the three other versions stranded in its wake in the lower quarter of the Top 20. That said it speaks volumes for the popularity of the song that 4 versions make the Top 20.

    Lonnie Donegan kicks off what will be his best ever year chart wise with a very high new entry at #13.

    On the UAC Guy Mitchell stops Tommy Steele's version of 'Singing' in its tracks preventing it from reaching the chart summit.

    Although differing in actual chart positions all three music paper charts agree on what the ten best selling singles are.

    Leave a comment:


  • MrTibbs
    replied
    Greetings Pop Pickers !

    Here is the next Ultimate Averaged Chart for Week Ending January 19th 1957

    Here are all '' the uppers, the downers, the just hanging 'arounders '

    The Ultimate Averaged Chart - Week Ending January 19th 1957 NME MM RM Total
    Last This The Sound Survey Stores 65 25 60 Points
    Week Week The Top 30 Singles Chart TOP 30 Scored
    1 1 Singing The Blues - Guy Mitchell 1 1 2 4440
    2 2 Singing The Blues - Tommy Steele 2 2 1 4410
    14 3 The Garden Of Eden - Frankie Vaughan 3 3 3 4200
    6 4 True Love - Bing Crosby and Grace Kelly 5 8 4 3885
    9 5 Friendly Persuasion - Pat Boone 4 6 6 3880
    3 6 Green Door - Frankie Vaughan 6 4 5 3860
    4 7 Just Walking In The Rain - Johnnie Ray 7 5 8 3590
    5 8 St. Therese Of The Roses - Malcolm Vaughan 8 7 7 3535
    7 9 Cindy Oh Cindy - Eddie Fisher 9 9 9 3300
    8 10 Hound Dog - Elvis Presley (A) 10 10 10 3150
    11 11 Blueberry Hill - Fats Domino 12 12 11 2910
    10 12 Rip It Up - Bill Haley and His Comets 11 13 14 2770
    NEW 13 Don't You Rock Me Daddy-O - Lonnie Donegan 13 14 12 2735
    13 14 Moonlight Gambler - Frankie Laine 16 11 13 2555
    15 15 Love Me Tender - Elvis Presley 15 19 15 2300
    12 16 The Garden Of Eden - Gary Miller 14 20 16 2280
    18 17 Blue Moon - Elvis Presley 17 17 17 2100
    23 18 Two Different Worlds - Ronnie Hilton 19 20 20 1715
    25 19 The Garden Of Eden - Dick James 23 20 18 1575
    NEW 20 The Garden Of Eden - Joe Valino 23 19 1240
    17 21 A Woman In Love - Frankie Laine 20 16 1090
    NEW 22 You Me And Us - Alma Cogan 18 845
    NEW 23 You Don't Owe Me A Thing / Look Homeward Angel - Johnnie Ray 21 650
    28 24 Ain't That A Shame - Pat Boone 22 585
    21 25 Don't Be Cruel - Elvis Presley (B) 15 400
    22 26 I'll Be Home - Pat Boone 25 390
    24 27 A House With Love In It - Vera Lynn 26 325
    19 28 Rock Around The Clock - Bill Haley and His Comets 18 325
    RE 29 See You Later Alligator - Bill Haley and His Comets 20 275
    20 30 When Mexico Gave Up The Rumba - Mitchell Torok 27 260
    16 More - Jimmy Young 28 195
    26 Rocking Through The Rye - Bill Haley and His Comets 29 130
    27 My Prayer - The Platters 30 65
    29 A Letter To A Soldier - Barbara Lyon
    30 Make It A Party - Winifred Atwell

    Leave a comment:


  • MrTibbs
    replied
    Originally posted by RokinRobinOfLocksley View Post
    Thanks Brian. I'd also suggest adding the actual NME chart with the 3 midpoint charts, so we can see all 4 up against each other. Cheerz...
    Sounds like a good idea to me

    Leave a comment:


  • RokinRobinOfLocksley
    replied
    Thanks Brian. I'd also suggest adding the actual NME chart with the 3 midpoint charts, so we can see all 4 up against each other. Cheerz...

    Leave a comment:


  • MrTibbs
    replied
    Originally posted by RokinRobinOfLocksley View Post
    Brian, could you add the Dec 29 MM and RM midpoint charts to your NME midpoint chart posting above? It would be worth a look to compare all of them against each other. Cheers...
    Yup no prob. Will do tomorrow Robin as working today I will do a chart featuring all 3 midpoint charts to see how the outcome looks

    Leave a comment:

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