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HITS #1: Sales/SPS Updates

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  • I'm curious to see if Jeezy or Maroon will be #1 - usually he has very healthy debuts even without big hits. His last album opened with 233k, though it came out in december, but the previous one opened with 260k back in Sept. '08.

    As for Maroon 5, they are coming from a big album - "Overexposed" opened with 222k a little bit more than 2 years ago and ended up selling over 1.6M, BUT... that album had 2 #1 hits while this one has "only" a #6 hit...

    Right now, I'm guessing they'll finally have their 2nd #1 album but with a much smaller opening, maybe 120k while Jeezy does around 100k?
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    • ^^^ Very interesting observation. Makes it hard to peg it.
      I was waiting for Bey to drop so she could show that T&A arent the only ones smashing album SALES!!!

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      • Originally posted by AutomaticBR
        Right now, I'm guessing they'll finally have their 2nd #1 album but with a much smaller opening, maybe 120k while Jeezy does around 100k?
        I had to choke when reading this... Do you consider such an opening for Maroon 5 realistic? That would be even less than Hands All Over, which had the advantage of being the follow-up of It Won't Be Sooner Before Long (2x platinum), but the major disadvantage that their profile decreased at the lot from about 2009 on (and only rose after Moves Like Jagger).

        This new album has the advantage of their profile being strong now and them coming fom a successful era (4 top 10 singles), their current lead single is a moderate success (No. 6 peak).

        120k would be less than 10% of their last album's total and even less than Linkin Park's last opening (the popularity of Linkin Park vs. Maroon 5's in the US?)...
        Je n'ai qu'une philosophie: Être acceptée comme je suis. Malgré tout ce qu'on me dit, je reste le poing levé.

        Say no to streaming!

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        • LP is a full rock band. M5 are not. That says enough.

          Launching pads from prior projects are becoming more insignificant. This current project lacks the huge hits that gave their last 2 albums life.

          Their 2nd album had such a big opening due to better overall sales, a bigger predecessor and a HUGE hit in Makes Me Wonder. This is a totally different era with an even smaller consumers pool.
          I was waiting for Bey to drop so she could show that T&A arent the only ones smashing album SALES!!!

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          • Originally posted by danbarj
            Their 2nd album had such a big opening due to better overall sales, a bigger predecessor and a HUGE hit in Makes Me Wonder. This is a totally different era with an even smaller consumers pool.
            I'm not judging where the 2nd era started, but where it ended, because that served as the starting point of the 3rd era. That and the lead single of the new project. It Won't Be Soon Before Long actually did quite fine, it went 2x platinum, had a hit lead single and a moderately successful 2nd single, but it was a big down from album No. 1 (5x platinum), Misery as lead single reached No. 14 (=moderate success), but was down quite a lot from Makes Me Wonder. So that was probably the starting point with their weakest profile, while Overexposure was the follow-up of an era that started as a fail but could be rescued due to a hit single and the lead single of Overexposure also turned out to be a hit.
            Je n'ai qu'une philosophie: Être acceptée comme je suis. Malgré tout ce qu'on me dit, je reste le poing levé.

            Say no to streaming!

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            • I was waiting for Bey to drop so she could show that T&A arent the only ones smashing album SALES!!!

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              • Originally posted by danbarj
                I brought up lots of facts, so you can't say that I'm being subjective now .
                Je n'ai qu'une philosophie: Être acceptée comme je suis. Malgré tout ce qu'on me dit, je reste le poing levé.

                Say no to streaming!

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                • Originally posted by Timmy94
                  Originally posted by danbarj
                  I brought up lots of facts, so you can't say that I'm being subjective now .
                  No. You brought up a formula. There is no formula for album to album success.
                  I was waiting for Bey to drop so she could show that T&A arent the only ones smashing album SALES!!!

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                  • Originally posted by Timmy94
                    Originally posted by danbarj
                    Their 2nd album had such a big opening due to better overall sales, a bigger predecessor and a HUGE hit in Makes Me Wonder. This is a totally different era with an even smaller consumers pool.
                    I'm not judging where the 2nd era started, but where it ended, because that served as the starting point of the 3rd era. That and the lead single of the new project. It Won't Be Soon Before Long actually did quite fine, it went 2x platinum, had a hit lead single and a moderately successful 2nd single, but it was a big down from album No. 1 (5x platinum), Misery as lead single reached No. 14 (=moderate success), but was down quite a lot from Makes Me Wonder. So that was probably the starting point with their weakest profile, while Overexposure was the follow-up of an era that started as a fail but could be rescued due to a hit single and the lead single of Overexposure also turned out to be a hit.
                    You always assume that a previous album's impact is directly proportional to the success of the next era. Like what danbarj said, there is no formula. Look at the likes of Taylor's Fearless-Speak Mine-Red eras, or Beyoncé's I Am... Sasha Fierce-4-Beyoncé eras. They are high-profile acts, but have "not as successful" eras sandwiched in between their very successful ones.

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                    • Never use the commercial performance of a successful previous release to predict the commercial performance of the following release.

                      For some prime examples why:

                      Pink

                      Missundaztood - 2001 - 5x Platinum
                      Try This - 2002 - Platinum

                      Hootie & the Blowfish

                      Cracked Rear View - 1994 - 16x Platinum
                      Fairweather Johnson - 1996 - 3x Platinum
                      Musical Chairs - 1998 - Platinum
                      (No studio albums released after sold enough to be certified by the RIAA.)

                      Alanis Morissette

                      Jagged Little Pill - 1995 - 16x Platinum
                      Supposed Former Infatuation Junkie - 1998 - 3x Platinum
                      Under Rug Swept - 2002 - Platinum
                      (No studio albums released after sold enough to be certified by the RIAA.)

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                      • I think Maroon 5 will open around 130-150k, or even less. Their current single, "Maps" is not THAT big (compared to "Payphone", "One More Night" & the Christina duet, etc.) and the hypes around them/Adam aren't that big right now.

                        Jeezy will be lucky if he hits 100k tbh. I don't think he even scored a hit single on Urban this era.... right?

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                        • Originally posted by danbarj
                          Originally posted by Timmy94
                          Originally posted by danbarj
                          I brought up lots of facts, so you can't say that I'm being subjective now .
                          No. You brought up a formula. There is no formula for album to album success.
                          He really wants to believe there is a system behind everything related to music, and that everything can be predicted or assumed using a formula or something of the sort. Honestly, if that WERE the case, there wouldn't be any flops EVER. Despite what some people (mostly stans) on here may think sometimes, record companies aren't stupid and they want to maximize profits. If they could follow some guidelines for album success, they'd have smashes all the time.

                          Also +1 to GetBack and PDC1987.

                          I said in Ariana's thread I refrained from posting a long list of examples for similar cases, but honestly my finger's itching.

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                          • YOUR NEW RELEASES: 222/Interscope's Maroon 5 will debut at #1 on next week's HITS Album Sales Chart with V, while Def Jam's Jeezy looks set to touch down with a strong retail bow. Here are this week’s key debuts:

                            Maroon 5 (222/Interscope) 145-155k
                            Jeezy (Def Jam) 90-100k
                            Counting Crows (Capitol) 28-32k

                            Speaking of Maroon singer Adam Levine, we're hoping for a cameo on the sitcom he's exec-producing for NBC about his teen dreams of stardom in the '90s. We miss our '90s hair. Well, all of our hair, really. (9/3a)

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                            • We all knew that Maroon 5 would debut with less than Overexposed, I expected something closer to 180k, though I'm happy that it's not the 120k some of you predicted. Overexposed ended up with a total of around 1.6 mio., so 150k for the follow-up is a rather modest opening...

                              Shocked about Jeezy though, meh debut for him.
                              Je n'ai qu'une philosophie: Être acceptée comme je suis. Malgré tout ce qu'on me dit, je reste le poing levé.

                              Say no to streaming!

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                              • Jezzy's debut is HUGE cause he has NO hit single on ANY format ANYWHERE. He also doesn't have the promotion of a M5 but he's what, 50K behind? Naw... both are doing good.

                                We all expected this for M5. Maybe you should start making your predictions more realistic Timmy.
                                I was waiting for Bey to drop so she could show that T&A arent the only ones smashing album SALES!!!

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                                • But you know with "predicting" higher sales, you can act more shocked and scream louder "flop".

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                                  • Huge? Let's be happy I wasn't drinking anything the moment I read your comment, I would've spilled it all over my PC . Whoever told you that you sell NOTHING the moment you don't have a hit single has to learn a lot about chart analysis. No one expects Jeezy to reach multi-platinum, but calling opening sales much less than half of his last album's huge is just ridiculous, let's not get ahead of ourselves ...
                                    Je n'ai qu'une philosophie: Être acceptée comme je suis. Malgré tout ce qu'on me dit, je reste le poing levé.

                                    Say no to streaming!

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                                    • Originally posted by Timmy94
                                      Huge? Let's be happy I wasn't drinking anything the moment I read your comment, I would've spilled it all over my PC . Whoever told you that you sell NOTHING the moment you don't have a hit single has to learn a lot about chart analysis. No one expects Jeezy to reach multi-platinum, but calling opening sales much less than half of his last album's huge is just ridiculous, let's not get ahead of ourselves ...
                                      Anyone that analyzes charts knows that CONTRIBUTING factors have to be considered when analyzing. Jeezy was just in jail last week. He's done no promotion. He has no hit. He did no circuit tour of urban clubs (as many rap stars do in the US).

                                      Yes, 100K in 2014 in the US off of the back of NOTHING is huge. NOTHING. Not a little. Literally NOTHING more than a loyal fanbase. I call it huge. Drink coffee the next time you read this. It's a huge feat with nothing supporting it.
                                      I was waiting for Bey to drop so she could show that T&A arent the only ones smashing album SALES!!!

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                                      • But jeezy released his last album in December and sales were a bit healthier....

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                                        • Originally posted by MO_FAN95
                                          But jeezy released his last album in December and sales were a bit healthier....
                                          Ever since Kesha released her last album, we know that the month you release your album doesn't play a role when it comes to the opening of your album. At least nowadays and in the US!
                                          Je n'ai qu'une philosophie: Être acceptée comme je suis. Malgré tout ce qu'on me dit, je reste le poing levé.

                                          Say no to streaming!

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                                          • What? The 4th quarter in the US is the biggest sales/revenue spike for all retailers and in most cases a lot of US retailers depend on this time of year to bring their bottom line to a profit. Why? Because people make more money in the 4th quarter because they are working extra hours and receiving bonuses and have more disposable income, therefore we Americans tend to spend more money which drive sales! So yes the time of years does affect album sales for artists. You expect one to have higher sales in October, November, and December than in May, June, or July. May not be the case with all but in general yes. And comparing Kesha, who has proven so far to be a mere fad to listeners after her debut era, to jeezy a urban/hip hop artists is not a good comparison especially when jeezy has a more loyal fab base..

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                                            • That's NOT true Timmy. Here you go using ONE half assed example to support a theory.
                                              I was waiting for Bey to drop so she could show that T&A arent the only ones smashing album SALES!!!

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                                              • not that May is the 3rd quarter it's the end of the second third is June July and August. for certain big artists their album releases doesn't matter if the singles are chosen wisely the album sells well though sales as a whole have gone down
                                                "the love of a mothers life is her child/children"

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                                                • @MoFan95 You said that so well. He just doesn't know or accept truth. He makes no sense tbh. He used a half assed pop star with one successful album and a boatload of hits to a rap artist with no pop hits and a string of bigger debuts and several platinum albums.

                                                  You know why? Cause everything is formulaic to him when it isn't in reality.

                                                  @marcsgirl Correct. For "several" big artists, they can debut big regardless. Several alludes to an exception not a rule. But I promise even they will debut bigger, under the same circumstances, than they would in May or any other time of year. More disposable income + gifting + general sales season. This convo has gone ludicrous.
                                                  I was waiting for Bey to drop so she could show that T&A arent the only ones smashing album SALES!!!

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                                                  • @MO_FAN95: There are a few more acts that you expected to sell more just because of the fact that they released their album in Q4 and in the end, they sold what they would've probably sold in any other period of the year. It's still weird that Kesha's Animal, released in Q1, opened with ~ 150k, although she was a newcomer at that time and only had her successful lead single to rely on. Animal turned out to be successful with 4 top 10 singles, it charted for more than a year and ended up with a total of ~ 1.6 mio. This was the background for Warrior and although the lead single was a success (No. 2 peak!) and the album release was in Q4, it only opened with a relatively poor 85k...
                                                    Je n'ai qu'une philosophie: Être acceptée comme je suis. Malgré tout ce qu'on me dit, je reste le poing levé.

                                                    Say no to streaming!

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                                                    • Because Kesha had one hit album. She turned it into a success but that doesn't mean people in general were into her albums. There's not even a trend to establish with TWO albums. One was a hit, one wasn't. Period. End of it.
                                                      I was waiting for Bey to drop so she could show that T&A arent the only ones smashing album SALES!!!

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                                                      • And these "other artists" and your speculation about them selling the same in another period of the year is baseless. You have no proof of what they would have done Timmy and so you resort to shoulda, coulda, woulda's. They don't work in analysis.

                                                        Your arguments have reached absurdity.
                                                        I was waiting for Bey to drop so she could show that T&A arent the only ones smashing album SALES!!!

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                                                        • When Kesha made her debut she had a massive hit on her hands and in a sense she became the it girl in pop music at that time. She and her label took a risk in releasing her album in a slower sales month and it paid off. She had other hits to keep the album stable in sales. However Kesha created no following for herself. Like I said she was the it girl and casual fans/listeners bought in to her at that moment. Sure she had a successful lead single for her sophomore release but it doesn't change the fact she started and built her career with casual fans, who may or may not invest in purchasing your album again. Top 40 artists are not always granted instant success Timmy because they typically do not invest in albums. Pop stars like katy are different from Kesha because unlike Kesha, Katy created and established a following group of loyal fans something Kesha failed to really do.

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                                                          • YOUR TOP 15: Maroon 5 will debut at #1 next week, powered by hit single “Maps” and a TV onslaught by the band and frontman Adam Levine. UMG looks set to score eight of the Top 10, including Bob Marley and the Wailers’ Legend, which is surging this week thanks to being the 99 cent Album of the Week at Google Play. Here’s how it looks headed into the weekend:

                                                            *Maroon 5 (222/Interscope) 150-160k
                                                            *Jeezy (Def Jam) 95-105k
                                                            Guardians of the Galaxy (Hollywood) 50-55k
                                                            Ariana Grande (Republic) 45-50k
                                                            Sam Smith (Capitol) 30-35k
                                                            Now 51 (NOW) 30-35k
                                                            *Counting Crows (Capitol) 27-30k
                                                            Frozen (Walt Disney) 27-30k
                                                            Bob Marley and the Wailers, Legend (Island) 21-24k
                                                            Miranda Lambert (RCA Nashville) 19-22k
                                                            Wiz Khalifa (Atlantic) 19-22k
                                                            5 Seconds of Summer (Capitol) 17-20k
                                                            KEM (Motown) 17-20k
                                                            Ed Sheeran (Atlantic) 16-18k
                                                            Brad Paisley (Arista Nashville) 16-18k

                                                            Technically, the 99-cent price point on Marley is offset by the fact that you have to spend at least ten bucks on weed to enjoy it properly. Speaking of which, can somebody reload this GPen already? (9/4p)

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                                                            • Oh you Timmy... you really should be more respectful with other people's opinions you know? not that you're being oh-so-offensive or whateva but sometimes it seems you're the only person in the world that's correct and everyone else is just talking shit.

                                                              I'm glad Maroon is selling a bit more than I expected, but still, they would be doing much better if they had a bigger hit like in the previous album, and turns out Jeezy is doing JUST what I expected haha even without a Hot 100 hit - like I said, his last album came out in december, so it's really unfair to compare this opening with that album's opening week, and the previous one came years ago, sooo... yes, he's doing fine.
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