Coronavirus outbreak

[Thriller]

Christmas in the UK was always going to go ahead regardless of the rules, the government had no choice but the facilitate it. The cases are going to rocket in January though...

Apparently 80% of England will be in tier 2 or 3 next week - pretty much lockdown without calling it one IMO. If I can’t socialise with my friends indoors in winter, that’s a lockdown.

[menime123]

Christmas in the UK was always going to go ahead regardless of the rules, the government had no choice but the facilitate it. The cases are going to rocket in January though...

Apparently 80% of England will be in tier 2 or 3 next week - pretty much lockdown without calling it one IMO. If I can’t socialise with my friends indoors in winter, that’s a lockdown.

Totally agree. There are only so many lockdown quizzes and drunken zoom parties you can do. Christmas is very much about coming together and celebrating Santa with a plate of pigs in blankets, and I’m nothing is keeping me from that (except perhaps my Dad, who forever is known as the man who put them in the second oven and forgot to turn the damn thing on).

[theMathematician]

The situation in Germany will be handled as followed in December:
- The November measures will continue.
- In general, the measures will continue until the numbers go lower than 50 per 100k people.
- Closed businesses will receive financial support based on their income in December '19
- You can meet up to 10 people during the holidays, excluding children.
- There may be restrictions for regions with more than 200 cases per 100k people regarding education (e.g. half present/half digital teaching for older students)

It was expected, but it sucks as you can basically sit home and wait for time to pass as you can do nothing and people still find a way to get infected.
The hotspot in Germany is currently a region on the countryside that is sparsely populated with just few migrants (I highlight this for the people who used to say that I blame migrants for spreading the virus.).

[InFamous]

The hotspot in Germany is currently a region on the countryside that is sparsely populated with just few migrants (I highlight this for the people who used to say that I blame migrants for spreading the virus.).

There is no need to differentiate between migrants and non migrants at all when speaking about Coronavirus figures in a particular country. And there never was a need to do so. The people who live in the country live in the country, period. Their origins are unimportant. So your comment was unnecessary.

Anyway, deaths today in the big 5:

France - 381
Spain - 369
UK - 696
Germany - 416 *highest daily deaths ever
Italy - 722

Quite high for the UK there.

[thatstheteacherinmehbaby]

yep i kinda figured this was all going to start happening pretty soon, with the cases of covid rising more & more each day, i think all of us see the "writings on the wall" now when it comes to this crazy pandemic... & to me it is worrying!!

honestly with the cases of covid constantly GOING UP in numerous countries all over the world right now, i can see concerts & other live events in all countries still being postponed until either end of 2021 or most likely postponed until beginning of 2022... because as much as it truly does suck for all of us right now (for all of the performers, crews, venues, & fans as well,) but we do HAVE TO get this virus under control before concerts & other live events are back... & it will take several months for the vaccine to be given to 7+ billion of people all over the world, so we are not quite "out of the woods" yet when it comes to this whole covid mess...

& here in the united states, when joe biden becomes our new president next year, he has already said that during his campaign that "if & when he is elected president of the united states, he will put us in ANOTHER LOCKDOWN for sure, & it will be for @ LEAST 6 WEEKS to try to stop the spreading of the covid!!" so since he was elected president, many of us americans see another lockdown on the horizon, most likely in february & march!! so i really DO NOT see concerts & live events on the horizon for us anytime soon...

i just hope & pray to god that the vaccine will actually work & that we can finally get rid of this darn covid forever, i am sooo done with covid, & i know everybody is done with covid too!!

[thatstheteacherinmehbaby]

like i have bern saying this for a while now, there has been warnings from the C.D.C., the W.H.O., numerous doctors, numeroys scientists, etc about this pandemic & that it was ggoing to most likely get worse during the fall & winter months... & yep & here we all are now!! & pretty much things will not be "back to fully normal" until next year... & things like concerts, broadway shows, festivals, movies @ theaters, etc are still 99% going to be postponed as the numbers of covid cases are steadily GOING UP & the vaccine is still a good while away from being ready & distributed to 7+ billion people all over the world...

so i doubt there will be any concerts, live events, etc... happening in 2021, especially in the first half of the year... in fact i have read that several performers have already postponed shows until 2022, which is smart considering it will most likely take all of 2021 to give everybody the vaccine before concerts, live events, etc can fully come back & will be safe & healthy for people to attend... because health & safety ALWAYS FIRST!! & trust me i DO NOT like any of this covid situation either, i think all of us are @ this point considering how long its been going now... lord please help us all now... happy thanksgiving!!

[Metalweb]

Just cancel Christmas......Always hated it anyway...

[Affillate]

Good news in Australia, although SA recently had a spike of cases and did a 6 day quarantine, NSW has gone 20 days of no local infections (only new cases coming from Hotel Quarantine), and Victoria has just been declared Covid eradicated after 28 days of 'double donuts'.

They discharged their last active cases the other day, and its a far cry from a few months ago in their 2nd wave in July/August, 700+ cases a day in the worst of it. QLD/NSW border is opening from Dec 1st.

That being said its still a bit ease into it cautiously, Theres still traces of covid being found in some areas sewage screenings programs, and Wednesday night's ARIA Awards in Sydney were no live audience (hosted by Delta Goodrem with a few presenters and some nominees, others doing the Zoom call/video link thing).

We're doing well! Hopefully The rest of the world can get things under control/Vaccines start coming in soon and hopefully work effectively.

[SholasBoy]

the vaccine is still a good while away from being ready & distributed to 7+ billion people all over the world...

Do 7 billion people need vaccinating though? We know that the overwhelming majority of people who have died of covid have been 70 plus, surely once those people have been vaccinated, the majority of people should be able to get back on with their lives.

[menime123]

Do 7 billion people need vaccinating though? We know that the overwhelming majority of people who have died of covid have been 70 plus, surely once those people have been vaccinated, the majority of people should be able to get back on with their lives.

Doesn’t work like that. This isn’t a virus that is okay for under 70s to live with and carry on with life. We don’t know enough about the long term impact of contracting it yet, how it impacts mortality alongside other illnesses or how successful it might mutate and become immune to a vaccination. Nor how long the vaccine lasts and provides protection.

The virus needs to be eradicated and the only way to achieve that is through mass global vaccination. Sadly humans have only ever successfully eradicated two viruses in history, but COVID-19 will most likely be the third based on the global response.

Of course not everyone has to have the vaccination. But you need at least 50% of a population to have it, and the more that have it beyond 50% the better the virus is suppressed and eventually eradicated. I believe 67% might be the key figure, but don’t quote me.

[Michiel]

Sigh... we got our measures until mid January. Hardly any changes bar some stores are allowed to open, but gyms and hairdressers etc. still closed. Also we get nothing for Christmas or new year... which made me kinda sad, even though I understand. Curfew still up, and only allowed to celebrate within your household, basically just me and my partner. If u r alone, you are allowed to invite 1. This is going to be very sad !

[Wayne]

Sigh... we got our measures until mid January. Hardly any changes bar some stores are allowed to open, but gyms and hairdressers etc. still closed. Also we get nothing for Christmas or new year... which made me kinda sad, even though I understand. Curfew still up, and only allowed to celebrate within your household, basically just me and my partner. If u r alone, you are allowed to invite 1. This is going to be very sad !

Oh that's not good Sorry to hear this.

The UK re-opens non-essential shops and hairdressers/gyms etc next week - I'm lowkey more excited about the hairdressers re-opening than the news about being able to spend Christmas with my loved ones.

[Michiel]

^ I understand, I was also wishing for the hairdresser cause my hair is gonna be a mess in two weeks, oh well ! Gym, also frustrates me, I don’t have the energy anymore to do constant home exercises, like I did during the first and second lockdown, but ok there are more important things in life I guess!

[Wayne]

^ I understand, I was also wishing for the hairdresser cause my hair is gonna be a mess in two weeks, oh well ! Gym, also frustrates me, I don’t have the energy anymore to do constant home exercises, like I did during the first and second lockdown, but ok there are more important things in life I guess!

Well, some would argue not - I had a really interesting conversation the other day with a work colleague...a lot of the risk mitigation measures (certainly in the UK) have presumed a traditional nuclear family set up (e.g. keeping schools open but closing recreational sports facilities such as gyms, assuming that 3 households mingling at Christmas will be sufficient for all people when that clearly won't be sufficient for 3 single person households).

I do agree that clearly, some things are more important than others but I think longing for gyms to re-open is a valid issue - a lot of people utilise them for reasons behind physical health (or rather, the benefits of them are greater than just physical health - specifically for single people, or non-nuclear family setups).

[KEY9481]

Shops are opening again from tomorrow on in France, so I expect another huge mess in two to three weeks.

[Wayne]

Well, lockdown has worked in some respects...

[theMathematician]

^ I understand, I was also wishing for the hairdresser cause my hair is gonna be a mess in two weeks, oh well ! Gym, also frustrates me, I don’t have the energy anymore to do constant home exercises, like I did during the first and second lockdown, but ok there are more important things in life I guess!

By the time they are allowed to open again in my country, I'll probably have losted all the muscles I worked a year for. Time wasted for nothing basically, but I've got to start from scratch then - and maybe in a far away future, I'll actually obtain the body I'm aiming at.

[InFamous]

Shops are opening again from tomorrow on in France, so I expect another huge mess in two to three weeks.

Imagine the metros. Seems like so long ago since I was squashed into a metro in Paris with hot guys all around me lol.

[thatstheteacherinmehbaby]

Do 7 billion people need vaccinating though? We know that the overwhelming majority of people who have died of covid have been 70 plus, surely once those people have been vaccinated, the majority of people should be able to get back on with their lives.

yea i think MOST PEOPLE SHOULD REALLY BE VACCINATED... because it has been proven that the virus has killed people of ALL AGES, NOT JUST ELDERLY OR IMMUNE-COMPROMISED PEOPLE!! i know that as a fact, as i have know people personally who had DIED FROM THIS VIRUS, & some of them WERE YOUNG, like one of my best friends who was ONLY 38 years old when she died from covid back in september!! & yes EVEN CHILDREN & BABIES had died from this virus as well!!

so do you think it is okay for the rest of us to risk dying from the virus by not being vaccinated because we are "under 70" but might still spread the virus & possibly die from it??

ok so here is an example for you: if there are a group of 100 people who have another kind of spreadable & dangerous virus such as the flu, & ONLY 50 of those people were given medication to help them, but the other 50 people were given NOTHING!! so i am very sure you can guess could possibly happen, but if you can not, here is the most likely scenario to happen: those 50 people that were treated with medicine will be just fine & recover... but the 50 people with no treatment or medicine with most likely not only GET WORSE, but also SPREAD IT TO OTHERS!! so there will be more people with the flu!! so that is why all 100 people should have been treated!! do you understand what i am trying to say?? that is why it is also important for everybody to get the covid vaccine, not just some people!! because other people who are not vaccinated can still spread it around & make others sick with covid!! & if we do not try to treat everybody, this virus will NEVER go away!!

[menime123]

Well, lockdown has worked in some respects...

The lower we push it under 1, the lesser the impact of our Christmas break when it gets pushed back up.

Im so desperate to go get my haircut. Lockdown scissor-trim-let’s-hope-for-the-best #4 of 2020 incoming today

[jio]

yea i think MOST PEOPLE SHOULD REALLY BE VACCINATED... because it has been proven that the virus has killed people of ALL AGES, NOT JUST ELDERLY OR IMMUNE-COMPROMISED PEOPLE!! i know that as a fact, as i have know people personally who had DIED FROM THIS VIRUS, & some of them WERE YOUNG, like one of my best friends who was ONLY 38 years old when she died from covid back in september!! & yes EVEN CHILDREN & BABIES had died from this virus as well!!

so do you think it is okay for the rest of us to risk dying from the virus by not being vaccinated because we are "under 70" but might still spread the virus & possibly die from it??

ok so here is an example for you: if there are a group of 100 people who have another kind of spreadable & dangerous virus such as the flu, & ONLY 50 of those people were given medication to help them, but the other 50 people were given NOTHING!! so i am very sure you can guess could possibly happen, but if you can not, here is the most likely scenario to happen: those 50 people that were treated with medicine will be just fine & recover... but the 50 people with no treatment or medicine with most likely not only GET WORSE, but also SPREAD IT TO OTHERS!! so there will be more people with the flu!! so that is why all 100 people should have been treated!! do you understand what i am trying to say?? that is why it is also important for everybody to get the covid vaccine, not just some people!! because other people who are not vaccinated can still spread it around & make others sick with covid!! & if we do not try to treat everybody, this virus will NEVER go away!!

Perfectly healthy young people and children and babies die every year from influenza too (and yes they can spread it too), yet we don't go and vaccinate the entire populations because these remain sad exceptions to the rule. The very publicized healthy young people deaths of covid are the same - sad exceptions to the rule which do not justify the vaccinations of entire populations because vaccines are not without side effects and risks and is always a question of risk-benefit really. The more healthy and the more young you go that equation is shifting more into unnecessary risk territory (as the benefit of getting immune to a disease which is very unlikely to kill you is rather small). Of course an individual could choose to get vaccinated but it should not be obligatory for younger healthy people

I think we really need to go back into logical thinking rather than hysterical one. The "I know somebody who died" argument is not a scientific way to view things, because the cold numbers tell another story

[menime123]

Perfectly healthy young people and children and babies die every year from influenza too (and yes they can spread it too), yet we don't go and vaccinate the entire populations because these remain sad exceptions to the rule. The very publicized healthy young people deaths of covid are the same - sad exceptions to the rule which do not justify the vaccinations of entire populations because vaccines are not without side effects and risks and is always a question of risk-benefit really. The more healthy and the more young you go that equation is shifting more into unnecessary risk territory (as the benefit of getting immune to a disease which is very unlikely to kill you is rather small). Of course an individual could choose to get vaccinated but it should not be obligatory for younger healthy people

I think we really need to go back into logical thinking rather than hysterical one. The "I know somebody who died" argument is not a scientific way to view things, because the cold numbers tell another story

The logical thing then is to vaccinate everyone and eradicate the virus. If we don’t then we’ll still be dealing with this in five years and that isn’t acceptable. Influenza is considered an acceptable part of life - passing COVID around amongst under 70s is not.

The longer we have the virus the more chance it has of mutating. We must stamp it out completely now and avoid it becoming truly established like influenza.

I do not understand how anyone can be willing to go about life and willingly contract COVID and accept it as a normal part of life because it doesn’t kill them.

In terms of influenza, COVID has a higher mortality rate:

“More than three times as many deaths were recorded between January and August this year where COVID-19 was the underlying cause compared to influenza and pneumonia."

“The mortality rate for COVID-19 is also significantly higher than influenza and pneumonia rates for both 2020 and the five-year average."

“Since 1959, which is when ONS monthly death records began, the number of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia in the first eight months of every year have been lower than the number of COVID-19 deaths seen, so far, in 2020.”

From one.gov.uk covering the first eight months of 2020. The idea that COVID is comparable to influenza and nothing to worry about and that the death rates are on par is fake news.

If the vaccines get approved for COVID we have a real chance of eradicating the virus. I judge anyone and everyone who doesn’t take the appropriate steps to rid the world of this virus. If this virus takes hold and becomes part our life on a long term basis and you have not played your part in eradicating it - you have blood on your hands.

[theMathematician]

menime123 : I think that life in Western countries mostly bases on personal responsibility and freedom of choice. In the context of Corona, I feel like some people feel the need to heavily judge others if they decide against what the mainstream opinion is. Since the rise of social media, we've seen this trend coming up, but it hasn't felt as extreme as now. That's why I'm not a fan of polarizing phrases like 'hav[ing] blood on your hands' - do what you think is right, let others decide about what they think is right.

[menime123]

menime123 : I think that life in Western countries mostly bases on personal responsibility and freedom of choice. In the context of Corona, I feel like some people feel the need to heavily judge others if they decide against what the mainstream opinion is. Since the rise of social media, we've seen this trend coming up, but it hasn't felt as extreme as now. That's why I'm not a fan of polarizing phrases like 'hav[ing] blood on your hands' - do what you think is right, let others decide about what they think is right.

It is what it is and no amount of taking offence against it changes it. I really don’t care if you dislike polarising phrases and it’s very interesting that you haven’t told me I’m wrong - just that you dislike how I’ve expressed myself.

If we have a feasible way of eradicating the virus and enough people opt not to take remedial steps to achieve that, we run the risk of COVID becoming a permanent fixture in our life - for the rest of our lives.

We only get one shot at really removing it because the nature of viruses is to mutate, develop and survive. We don’t know how often COVID will do this, but we don’t want to get to that stage either - do we?

Humans have only ever successful eradicated two viruses in history (according to the WHO). We must seize the opportunity to stop COVID before it truly takes hold - thankfully the science has been incredibly quick and is offering us a real chance at eradicating a third virus and saving many thousands of lives in the future.

Ultimately we all have a choice, and it’s out choices that define who we are. It is that simple in my opinion and it is very clear which side of the fence I am on. I think it’s an abomination that people in this world are absolutely prepared to contract COVID and spread COVID all in the name of personal liberty.

The announced vaccines are not 100% successful. People will continue to die unless the disease is removed from circulation. The vaccine is not a cure and it is not going to work unless we unite against it. The only way to remove it is to fight head on and take all necessary steps to stop it spreading.

So if you are prepared to contract COVID because you are not in an vulnerable age group, then you are prepared to spread COVID, and in doing so quite literally contributing towards someone death.

Don’t attempt to justify it by using statistics about other illnesses, viruses or diseases. I am talking about COVID and COVID alone. It is very, very simple - if you deliberately contract it through inaction (be that staying at home and socially distancing or having the vaccine), you are going to spreading it and consequently are in a chain link that ends with someone dying from it.

So I stand by everything I said. Inaction is not acceptable in any shape or form.

[jio]

I am trying to figure out a proper way to answer to this for quite some time. True, I also do not appreciate sensationalist language in a topic which is essentially scientific

Generally I do not disagree with what menime is saying. If you have the chance to eradicate a virus safely, do it. However the problem with this theory is that the weapons for this eradication (the vaccines) are so new that we do not know enough about their safety. We will know enough to license them in an emergency basis (that's the procedure they will be licensed with) but that's not the same as the normal procedure which takes time and years. It's almost a certainty that there are going to be rare and perhaps serious side effects which have not been identified right now due to their rarity but they may take a huge toll if we vaccinate whole country populations.

The two viruses we eradicated were eliminated by vaccines that were out and tried for years and years, not with totally new vaccines, hence the risk-benefit curve was acceptable. The rinderpest vaccine was developed in the 60s and the eradication happened 50 years later, the smallpox vaccine was developed in the late 19th century and eradication happened in the 70s. For most other vaccines there is always the risk-benefit ratio. If you go to a country with high yellow fever risk, you have to get vaccinated but if you go to Tanzania for example, the vaccine is not recommended despite the country having a (low) chance of yellow fever exposure because of this risk-benefit ratio. Same with malaria, there are countries where the prophylactic medication is recommended and there are countries which do have malaria but because the chance of contracting it is low, prophylaxis is not recommended. It is that I was referring to with my mention of influenza and not that the disease is similar to COVID (obviously COVID poses a bigger threat). Also it has to be said that there are so many other deadly diseases for which vaccines are available for decades (Polio for example since the late 80s) and there is still no eradication for many reasons that I suspect aiming at a fast COVID eradication through vaccination is totally unrealistic, especially considering that the only human disease we eradicated (smallpox) cannot spread from animals to human so human vaccination is enough, something that is not the case for COVID which can find reservoir in at least one type of animal based on what we know so far

It's this what I am talking about when I am saying the risk/benefit curve. To give you an example I am 120% in favour of my parents getting vaccinated because they are old and there is a great possibility (not a certainty) COVID will hurt them if they get it. However I am not in favor of a young healthy individual getting vaccinated early on because chances (again not a certainty) are that COVID is not a serious threat for him/her and also his vaccine may be better used on someone else. On purpose I did not mention myself because at my age I am not really sure in which category I belong but, for sure, I will not be among those who puts the vaccine in the first months (unless my longing for travelling becomes even bigger than what is right now).