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  • The coronavirus fatality rate is under 0.4% so those other figures are irrelevant really
    jio CHARTS NOW:13/7/2020:https://www.ukmix.org/forum/chart-di...0#post10430510

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    • Originally posted by jio View Post
      The coronavirus fatality rate is under 0.4% so those other figures are irrelevant really
      For a fatality rate under 0.4%, the US should have reached 35 Million infections weeks ago. They're (officially) at a little over 3 Million now.

      *itsjustnotrealistic.gif*

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        • But herd immunity is proven not to be an option as far as I've read... thing is people that got infected, around 2 months later have no antibody's left. Maybe you don't have antibodies but your body will act faster if getting re-infected?

          The interviews and articles I read here in Argnetina pointed that it's not a sustainable reality to think about herd immunity. My personal conclusion is:
          - wait for the virus to really get less strong
          - wait for an effective treatment to be discovered
          - wait for a vaccine

          in that order of expectations. In the meantim: Social distancing + Govmnt aid
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          • Originally posted by Rihab View Post

            For a fatality rate under 0.4%, the US should have reached 35 Million infections weeks ago. They're (officially) at a little over 3 Million now.

            *itsjustnotrealistic.gif*
            Not really because I said "under 0.4%" without specifying how much under. I was replying to stevyy's 1%+ figures really
            jio CHARTS NOW:13/7/2020:https://www.ukmix.org/forum/chart-di...0#post10430510

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            • Originally posted by jio View Post

              Not really because I said "under 0.4%" without specifying how much under. I was replying to stevyy's 1%+ figures really
              right now, the fatality rate in the US is at 4,6% (according to Johns Hopkins University)... Of course that does only reflect the dire situation of the moment and the real rate will be / is lower than that.

              My point is that... if the US decides for herd immunity or doesn't get the current situation under control... then more and more people will get sick and more and more people will need hospital care. At a certain point... people who will need hospital care will not be able to get it bc hospitals will be at capacity.

              Only in that situation... death rates will increase. A dire situation really... because 1% death rate would mean over 1 million people dead in such a scenario... and the worse the entire health care situation gets (and let's face it, it is REALLY bad in the US right now with 20 million people not insured or threatened to lose health care and many more on the brink of bankruptcy due to health care costs) the higher the death rate will become...

              Maybe the virus itself is not as deadly as initially assumed... but circumstance is also a factor that cannot be ignored.

              So, under no circumstances is herd immunity a measure any government should pursue at this point. It's far too dangerous.
              My Chart

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              • Originally posted by jio View Post
                Not really because I said "under 0.4%" without specifying how much under.
                Yeah. 35 Million is how many cases you need to get to America's current death count (140k) with a 0.4% fatality rate (exactly 0.4%!).

                With a fatality rate 'under 0.4%', you need even more astronomical case numbers. 70 Million with a 0.2% rate, 140 Million with a 0.1% rate... It only gets more ridiculous the lower the rate goes.

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                • Today Germany will surpass 200,000 overall cases... (around 6,000 cases are still active).


                  My Chart

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                  • Spain hiding their numbers again..

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                    • 15k new cases in Florida. This is crazy.
                      And they getting to open Disney World again.
                      5.05.2009 / 6.22.2011 / 4.24.2013 / 4.25.2013 / 3.1.2014 / 9.13.2014 / 7.21.2016 / 7.14.2018 / 7.15.2018

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                      • The thing that also worries me is that the long term impact of coronavirus might be drastic even for those who went through it without any symptoms.
                        Waffles are checked cookies

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                        • jio
                          jio commented
                          Editing a comment
                          healthwise?

                        • heppolo
                          heppolo commented
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                          yep, especially the conflicting evidence of blood clots en masse (according to various researches)

                      • Originally posted by KEY9481 View Post
                        15k new cases in Florida. This is crazy.
                        And they getting to open Disney World again.
                        Even New York at its peak didn't have such numbers.
                        Drugs come in all forms .... Mine just happens to be you!?

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                        • It’s baffling that there’s a segment of american society that thinks this is a hoax

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                          • Originally posted by SpyVsSpy View Post
                            It’s baffling that there’s a segment of american society that thinks this is a hoax
                            When the president comes out and says something like 99 percent of all Corona virus cases are harmless you cannot really blame the people..

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                            • I am sure that Spain had 1000 new cases yesterday, hence the hidden numbers.

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                              • Originally posted by SpyVsSpy View Post
                                It’s baffling that there’s a segment of american society that thinks this is a hoax
                                Not only in America though. There are several people thinking that over here as well and I'm sure in other countries, too.

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                                • Originally posted by Leo View Post
                                  But herd immunity is proven not to be an option as far as I've read... thing is people that got infected, around 2 months later have no antibody's left. Maybe you don't have antibodies but your body will act faster if getting re-infected?

                                  The interviews and articles I read here in Argnetina pointed that it's not a sustainable reality to think about herd immunity. My personal conclusion is:
                                  - wait for the virus to really get less strong
                                  - wait for an effective treatment to be discovered
                                  - wait for a vaccine

                                  in that order of expectations. In the meantim: Social distancing + Govmnt aid
                                  Given that even after an actual infection, the number of antibodies drops rather quickly, wouldn't the same apply to antibodies generated through vaccination? Unless we're willing to get monthly shots, is a vaccine still a viable option?

                                  I am of course aware that there are many things we don't know about this virus and a lot of the studies provide speculation points rather than firm conclusions, but the fact that the body doesn't seem to sustain antibodies for a longer period of time sounds like really bad news to me.

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                                  • I wouldn't wait for that treatment that may possibly happen either. There's still none for cancer, and hiv research still isn't completed either, so I would say that it's better to live with it instead of waiting for that day X that could possibly change it all.
                                    Don't need hindsight
                                    I'll make my emotions clear
                                    And then disappear
                                    With one strike
                                    (All Saints)

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                                    • Originally posted by LittleLinda View Post

                                      Given that even after an actual infection, the number of antibodies drops rather quickly, wouldn't the same apply to antibodies generated through vaccination? Unless we're willing to get monthly shots, is a vaccine still a viable option?

                                      I am of course aware that there are many things we don't know about this virus and a lot of the studies provide speculation points rather than firm conclusions, but the fact that the body doesn't seem to sustain antibodies for a longer period of time sounds like really bad news to me.
                                      We actually do not know how fast antibodies are falling (if they are falling). Also not all the diseases successfully prevented with a vaccine, give you long-term immunity through an infection. For example it is quite well-known that whereas a tetanus vaccine will give you complete immunity for 5 years and partial immunity for 10 years, having survived tetanus does not give you any immunity. Of course tetanus is a whole different beast but just saying.

                                      I think the biggest danger here is unsafe vaccines and medicine. The profit here is unprecedented and that pushes governments and firms to bypass every safety valve available. And that could result not to a repetition of 1914 but a repetition of 1976...
                                      jio CHARTS NOW:13/7/2020:https://www.ukmix.org/forum/chart-di...0#post10430510

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                                      • Originally posted by jio View Post

                                        We actually do not know how fast antibodies are falling (if they are falling). Also not all the diseases successfully prevented with a vaccine, give you long-term immunity through an infection. For example it is quite well-known that whereas a tetanus vaccine will give you complete immunity for 5 years and partial immunity for 10 years, having survived tetanus does not give you any immunity. Of course tetanus is a whole different beast but just saying.

                                        I think the biggest danger here is unsafe vaccines and medicine. The profit here is unprecedented and that pushes governments and firms to bypass every safety valve available. And that could result not to a repetition of 1914 but a repetition of 1976...
                                        True, the fact that people are rushing to present a magical solution to the problem (be it a vaccine or treatment medication) is a huge risk in itself. However, the problem with any treatment as well as the disease itself is that only time will tell what the long-term effects are and wether it is better to risk infection or to risk medication side effects. Kind of a "pick your poison" situation, without knowing many details about either poison.

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                                        • Facemasks will become compulsory in shops from 24 July in England.

                                          Experts are now predicting a second wave in the winter that has the potential to cause more deaths than the first outbreak if people don't take the right measures.
                                          THRILLER’S SOUNDS OF THE 90s

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