U.K. Politics: Boris Johnson referred to police (AGAIN) over potential Covid rule breaches

[Thriller]

^^ Plus the membership preferred a white woman to a brown man. I think it’s that crude.

Rishi is one of the better of a very bad bunch but I very much doubt he’ll call a GE.

At least it’s not Boris but I think it’s disgraceful the way the media have whipped it all up over the last three days.

[Thombus]

But if people were so impressed with Rishi’s plans, the Tory party had the opportunity to vote for it two months ago - and rejected it. Now it’ll be imposed without a vote. Why should we settle for second best?

The party itself (MPs) certainly had Rishi as the preferred candidate in the summer, it was the membership that went with Truss. Personally, I think it was a case of Rishi's policies being too cautionery, underpromising and favouring handouts for the least well off in comparison to Truss' lower tax promises which served the wealthier better. I imagine this swayed alot of those in that bracket at the time, hence the result.

[Artoo]

I'd love a General Election but there's no a chance we'll get one anytime soon. At least Rishi understands the economy so there's that, and some of the knee jerk policies Hunt is considering may be swept aside for a better informed, market-calming strategy.

But if people were so impressed with Rishi’s plans, the Tory party had the opportunity to vote for it two months ago - and rejected it. Now it’ll be imposed without a vote. Why should we settle for second best?

Penny is reportedly claiming to have 90 MPs with less than two hours to go. I don’t like her at all, but I’d rather the conservatives at least vote for a leader before giving the entire country a prime minister that wasn’t even voted into the job on any level.

[Thombus]

The narrative Boris is spinning really concerns me. He had no intention of running, yet his statement screams "I could do it, but I'll allow others to first", as if he's some sort of saviour. It's pretty obvious he didn't have the support, but this lays the foundation for his return in a few years or so once the hard decisions have been tackled by others.

I'd love a General Election but there's no a chance we'll get one anytime soon. At least Rishi understands the economy so there's that, and some of the knee jerk policies Hunt is considering may be swept aside for a better informed, market-calming strategy.

[Artoo]

So as it stands, just 155 people are playing king maker and Rishi will be confirmed this afternoon as the next Prime Minister of the UK, completely unopposed. Not only will he not be elected by the public (based on his own policies and agenda), his own party won’t even be asked to vote for him as their leader. Talk about broken politics. Hopefully he will call for a general election but I’m not convinced.

It really should be law that when a new prime minister is installed outside of a general election, that they must call an election and obtain the approval of the country.

[ferrero]

seems likely Rishi will run away with this.

[Wayne]

I also miss those days, Brexit has a lot to answer for - since then, our politics have been dreadful. But so have everyone else’s as countries across the world ride a growing wave of populism. I think we are slowly moving into a next phase but it’s taking time. The US needs to find a way to deal with the spectre of Donald Trump - they must find a way to bar him from running (same with us, and Johnson). For as long as these divisive figures are able to run, our politics will be forever diminished. That’s not to say the issues they speak to aren’t without merit, they clearly represent a significant number of people, but as human beings - they are disgraceful.

This morning, the breakdown of MP support is as follows:

• Rishi Sunak - 155 MPs
• Penny Mordaunt - 25 MPs

There’s 177 left (inclusive of the 54 who backed Boris). Unless she quickly gets a suitably large public boost, Penny should withdraw. She technically has until 2pm to get to 100.

[Artoo]

Either way, big developments tomorrow. I miss quiet politics days. Once upon a time you could go weeks without politicians bothering you.

[Wayne]

Ugh, I preferred it when they were fighting.

[Wayne]

I mean, yes, the man cannot be trusted to draw a raffle let alone anything else. I know there’s no obligation for an MP to express who they support publicly, but we’re still about 200 short aren’t we?

So anything could happen - but it looks likely Rishi will be the next Prime Minister. I really don’t think he’ll call an election either.

As of around 9pm, the breakdown in terms of public support was:

Rishi Sunak - 147 MPs
Boris Johnson - 57 MPs
Penny Mordaunt - 24 MPs

Throwing Boris' 57 back into the mix, that leaves 186 MPs still left to pledge. If Penny does the honourable thing and drops out tomorrow, Rishi will move forward unopposed and there won't need to be a vote that goes to the Conservative Party members (assuming the right of the party doesn't pull any tricks), that is the best outcome. If Penny doesn't drop out and somehow makes it to 100, I genuinely believe that Rishi might be in trouble.

Rishi is by far the most qualified of the two but I do think Penny Mordaunt has a bright future.

[Artoo]

Possibly, but I also think it’s possible that he didn’t have the numbers he proclaims to have and this is him saving face. I just don’t trust a word he says.

I mean, yes, the man cannot be trusted to draw a raffle let alone anything else. I know there’s no obligation for an MP to express who they support publicly, but we’re still about 200 short aren’t we?

So anything could happen - but it looks likely Rishi will be the next Prime Minister. I really don’t think he’ll call an election either.

[Wayne]

The real question is whether Rishi will hoover up Boris’ supporters or whether they’ll rally around someone else? Tomorrow could be interesting. But probably not - it sounds like he’s been told to let Rishi have it and to avoid the need for a vote all together.

Possibly, but I also think it’s possible that he didn’t have the numbers he proclaims to have and this is him saving face. I just don’t trust a word he says.

[Artoo]

The real question is whether Rishi will hoover up Boris’ supporters or whether they’ll rally around someone else? Tomorrow could be interesting. But probably not - it sounds like he’s been told to let Rishi have it and to avoid the need for a vote all together.

[Wayne]

a

His statement - praise the lord.

[Artoo]

Boris has dropped out, despite apparently getting 102 backers.

BBC:

Boris Johnson has announced will not stand for the Tory leadership.

He is saying that despite having the support of the MPs required to run, he had come to the conclusion "this would simply not be the right thing to do" as "you can't govern effectively unless you have a united party in Parliament".

He says he had the backing of 102 MPs, the BBC's Political Editor Chris Mason reports.

[Artoo]

So unless Boris declares tomorrow… Rishi will be PM come Friday.

[Wayne]

She is also our Deputy Prime Minister.

[stevyy]

holy mother... that person in the photo is the current health minister of the UK? She seems unapologetic about her choices.

[Wayne]

From the BBC:



I perhaps hadn't thought about the upheaval of having to appoint a new Cabinet - I hope that's a light touch affair and not a full on reshuffle, though whatever happens, Therese Coffey cannot remain the Health Secretary:



She is entirely unsuitable! And is doing lots of damage to the NHS as we speak by rolling back existing commitments or watering down support for key issues (like suicide prevention).

[Wayne]

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...ings/cbp-7529/

I think this graph is quite interesting (it's % of voting public, not seats in the Commons) - there's a number of obvious deductions you can make:

• The Liberal Democrats did untold damage to reputation by going into a coalition government with the Conservatives - their numbers, having steadily risen over many years before, fell off a cliff in 2015.
• Under Blair, Labour enjoyed unrivalled parliamentary superiority in 1997 - but during his time as their leader, there was a gradual decline in how popular Labour was and by the time Gordon Brown took over, their popularity levels had sunk to similar levels they last saw at the height of Mrs Thatcher's popularity.
• Coming out of the "New Labour" era though, the Conservatives have gradually risen in popularity and by 2019, are back to levels not seen since the heyday of Mrs Thatcher. The Labour trajectory since 2010 is interesting - you can clearly see that in 2017, there was almost a surge back to the levels of popularity that Blair had, although that didn't really translate into Parliamentary seats due to our FPTP system. The Labour Party was also internally very anti-Corbyn, even though its membership overwhelmingly wasn't - and taken together with the media who were hugely anti-Corbyn, the Labour Party produced a pretty dismal 2019 result.
• It's also worth noting the huge growth in regional parties in recent years (the SNP, Plaid Cymru, DUP etc).
• Under Blair in 1997, the Labour Party had 418 seats in Parliament - the highest ever number of any party. Under Mrs Thatcher in 1983, the Conservative Party had 393 seats, their highest ever number. The Liberal Democrats story is tragic, with their number of MPs going from 62 in 2005 to 57 in 2010 to just 8 in 2015.

If Labour were to produce results seen in current polls in the next General Election, this graph would look very unusual, probably a bit similar to the spike seen in the early 1930s for the Conservative Party.

[Artoo]

wasn't there a poll on yougov indicating Labour had a 33 point lead after mini budget?

Yes but the Conservatives currently have around 160 seats more than Labour. In order to win an election Labour need 326 seats for an outright win - and they only won 202 in 2019. So plugging the gap and winning an 125 additional seats is a pretty tall order. It’s not impossible, but it’s definitely a challenge: the last time a party won so many was back in 1997 (when Tony Blair won 145 - the only time a party has gained over 100 seats since the end of WWII).

[ferrero]

wasn't there a poll on yougov indicating Labour had a 33 point lead after mini budget?

[Artoo]

Completely agree, but I honestly don’t see Rishi calling one. I could see Boris calling one though. But yeah, unlikely Labour would win.

[Thriller]

Do I trust the country to not vote them back in anyway? No. But at least it’d be mandated.

[SholasBoy]

The only solution is a GE, the country is sick of this sham.