U.K. Politics: Nadine Dorries resigns her post as MP - or does she?

[Shadowplay]

I don't even know why people don't like her, but I guess it's a dynamic that somehow started and people jumped on it because they thought it would be 'the right thing' to do.

Maybe it’s because you’re not paying for a mortgage in the UK, or even paying rent for (even a) studio apartment in London or Brighton or elsewhere.
Prices are stellar, GBP is at its minimum in years vs USD, people are struggling to pay bills and you wonder why a PM could alienate millions of people in a fortnight by reducing taxes to the rich? ROTFL.

[Artoo]

u guys ready for Boris once more?

Actually, there were reports when he was ousted that members were plotting to hold an immediate vote of no confidence in the new leader, in the hope of re-instating him. It won’t happen but stranger things have happened.

[ferrero]

u guys ready for Boris once more?

[Plym]

Pretty sure that’s exactly how it doesn’t work

have a day off

[Artoo]

how can the left be split between snp and labour if there are only 5 million scottish people but 55 milion English? we are literally outnumbered by 50 million, even if every single person in scotland voted, our vote still wouldn't even come close to mattering

Pretty sure that’s exactly how it doesn’t work

[Plym]

I agree thinks look bad for Truss but I don’t think removing her is good party politics. What I’m hearing is that if they do remove her, they will probably need to call a general election in order to bring back voter confidence - and whilst they will probably win (because the the left remains split between Labour and the SNP), it’ll definitely be with a reduced majority.

how can the left be split between snp and labour if there are only 5 million scottish people but 55 milion English? we are literally outnumbered by 50 million, even if every single person in scotland voted, our vote still wouldn't even come close to mattering

[Artoo]

The biggest tragedy of all this though is that Truss studied Economics at Oxford and is an accountant by trade.

[Artoo]

Truss might not even see the weekend at this rate!

Would she be the shortest period PM in history? She’d literally only be remembered in history for being the PM when the Queen died.

I wondered this earlier so did the Google

There was one guy who was PM for 23 days but it was his second run at being PM (he’d been PM on a separate occasion a few years earlier) and he didn’t have a majority, so conceded the role to the other party in the coalition.

(I think that’s what happened, Wiki let me down )

So in terms of shorter run as PM, no, but overall tenure, yes.

[Thriller]

Truss might not even see the weekend at this rate!

Would she be the shortest period PM in history? She’d literally only be remembered in history for being the PM when the Queen died.

[Wayne]

But all Hunt has done is said ‘not doing that, pretend it didn’t happen and let’s just go back to what we had’

That's not really fair, I think he's doing a good job - he's not only reversed the majority of Truss' plans, he's also indicated that tough measures are due to be announced on 31 Oct also to deal with the ongoing issues. He is restoring confidence in the markets.

I agree thinks look bad for Truss but I don’t think removing her is good party politics. What I’m hearing is that if they do remove her, they will probably need to call a general election in order to bring back voter confidence - and whilst they will probably win (because the the left remains split between Labour and the SNP), it’ll definitely be with a reduced majority.

That’s why I feel like she probably bought herself twelve months - but twelve minutes is long in politics nowadays

Interesting, especially the Labour/SNP point - if the SNP don't get their wish for an independence vote, this will still be a very real issue for Labour in 2 years.

[Artoo]

Well, I think that the Conservative Party will learn from previous mistakes - it’s a matter of when, and not if, she will go. Hunt is doing a sterling job bringing about confidence (though given how bad things were, anything could appear to be an improvement on what we had).

But all Hunt has done is said ‘not doing that, pretend it didn’t happen and let’s just go back to what we had’

I agree thinks look bad for Truss but I don’t think removing her is good party politics. What I’m hearing is that if they do remove her, they will probably need to call a general election in order to bring back voter confidence - and whilst they will probably win (because the the left remains split between Labour and the SNP), it’ll definitely be with a reduced majority.

That’s why I feel like she probably bought herself twelve months - but twelve minutes is long in politics nowadays

But how many lessons do The Conservatives need to learn? Cameron messed up and gave us Brexit. They then installed May only to stage a coup, replacing her with Boris, who eventually lived up to his nefarious reputation in every single way. Now they’ve given us Truss and she’s ruined the economy in forty days, and over 80,000 party members voted her as the best person for the job.

Finding a Prime Minister who can do the job shouldn’t be this hard, and when the party themselves keep messing up, we have to go to the ballot box.

I actually think it’s horrendous that just over 80,000 people got to decide that Liz became Prime Minister. It’s one thing to replace a party leader, but no one should automatically become Prime Minister without calling a general election.

[/rant]

[Wayne]

The problem is we’ve heard it all before. I did see on the BBC that there’s talk of installing Sunak and Penny alongside Hunt, without a leadership contest. But the problem still remains The Conservative Party voted for Liz Truss - she didn’t just walk in off the street. They put us in this mess just as much as she did.

At this rate Charles could easily beat his mother’s record 15 PMs

Well, I think that the Conservative Party will learn from previous mistakes - it’s a matter of when, and not if, she will go. Hunt is doing a sterling job bringing about confidence (though given how bad things were, anything could appear to be an improvement on what we had).

[bm08]

Prepping her resignation letter

I giggled when someone asked if she was on her way to the palace

[Artoo]

The Prime Minister is being dragged through the House right now for not attending the urgent question

Prepping her resignation letter

[bm08]

The Prime Minister is being dragged through the House right now for not attending the urgent question

[Artoo]

Apparently, Cabinet ministers are threatening to resign in 48 hours if she doesn’t resign before then.

The problem is we’ve heard it all before. I did see on the BBC that there’s talk of installing Sunak and Penny alongside Hunt, without a leadership contest. But the problem still remains The Conservative Party voted for Liz Truss - she didn’t just walk in off the street. They put us in this mess just as much as she did.

At this rate Charles could easily beat his mother’s record 15 PMs

[ferrero]

So Rishi Sunak will be the PM afterall..

[Wayne]

And it seems there might be a plot to replace her

Apparently, Cabinet ministers are threatening to resign in 48 hours if she doesn’t resign before then.

[theMathematician]

I didn't expect a PM to be less popular than Boris Johnson, but here we go. I don't even know why people don't like her, but I guess it's a dynamic that somehow started and people jumped on it because they thought it would be 'the right thing' to do.

[Artoo]

And it seems there might be a plot to replace her

[Wayne]

Can’t keep up but Hunt is bringing forward his announcements on the tax and spending cuts from 31 Oct to this morning.

[Wayne]

Well, I guess we'll see!

Chancellor Hunt has a deficit of around £25 billion per year to plug, some of the things he's apparently considering are:

• Delaying the 1p cut in income tax - saving of around £5 billion per year.
• Reducing government departmental expenditure across the board (including in areas like Health, Defence and Education - normally protected).
• Not increasing benefits in line with inflation, instead increasing them in line with average wage growth (saving around £6 billion per year).
• Not increasing public sector wages in line with inflation (likely leading to strike action - e.g. as we are seeing with the nurses).

Apparently, it'll be nothing like the austerity measures we saw 10 years ago but tough decisions will follow.

[Artoo]

Do you think she has a year? I think if there isn't a very positive reaction to Hunt's statement on 31 Oct, she'll be finished.

I do, because I think the statement will be fine. I don’t believe in conspiracy theories (not that I’ve heard one) but I honestly think the party has stepped in to fix this mess.

[Wayne]

Replacing the chancellor has probably bought her a year. If in twelve months she looks unelectable, that’s when I think they’ll replace her. Don’t get me wrong, she needs to go - giving her replacement twelve months to make their mark before the next general election (which as to be no later than January 2025).

Do you think she has a year? I think if there isn't a very positive reaction to Hunt's statement on 31 Oct, she'll be finished. I think that she's basically done too much damage now and anything other than her complete removal makes the Conservatives unelectable in 18-24 months time. I suspect one of two things will happen:

1. She'll step down before or shortly after 31 Oct, citing wanting to do the right thing by the Party - there will then be a very swift replacement with Rishi Sunak (who, if unopposed, could be appointed without the need for a leadership election). Hunt will remain as Chancellor and between them, they will rebuild confidence in the markets.
2. Between now and 31 Oct, she works to rebuild confidence within her own party and she pulls a miracle off and the markets react favourably to whatever is coming on 31 Oct. She then rules until a General Election is called.

Worst case scenario for the Conservative Party is that she refuses to leave and they have to reshape the 1922 Committee rules that are enacted when replacing a Conservative Party Leader (currently, they prohibit a challenge for at least 12 months).

Labour haven’t had a moment like this to shine in over a decade though. Now is the time for Starmer to step up - people are disillusioned with The Tories now, so he needs to win them over now. He’ll never have a better chance at convincing people to change votes, even though it’s over two years away.

I think the Polls are skewing too far to the left at the moment - I don't think it's as bad for the Conservative Party as the polls would lead you to believe. But it is still pretty bad. They will need real change to win the next election. However, all that said, since watching The Labour Files, I just can't warm up to Labour - it's quite frustrating. I need so much more from Starmer than he's currently giving.

[Artoo]

The Conservatives hold too many seats for a general election to be held. Even if Labour called for a vote of no confidence, at least 40 - 50 Conservative MPs would have to vote against their own party for it to stand a chance. The options are sticking with Truss or replacing her.

What we need right now is for a financial plan to be put in place that is costed and approved, bringing stability back to the markets. Sadly, even once stability is regained it will be fragile, so I don’t think Truss can be replaced - at least not yet.

Replacing the chancellor has probably bought her a year. If in twelve months she looks unelectable, that’s when I think they’ll replace her. Don’t get me wrong, she needs to go - giving her replacement twelve months to make their mark before the next general election (which as to be no later than January 2025).

Labour haven’t had a moment like this to shine in over a decade though. Now is the time for Starmer to step up - people are disillusioned with The Tories now, so he needs to win them over now. He’ll never have a better chance at convincing people to change votes, even though it’s over two years away.