Russia and Ukraine

[SholasBoy]

The media is so reckless... this talk about Putin using nuclear weapons in the near future bc his troops are currently failing is so dangerous.

Isn’t that exactly what members of this forum have been saying for months.

[Artoo]

The media is so reckless... this talk about Putin using nuclear weapons in the near future bc his troops are currently failing is so dangerous.

In fairness to the media (there’s a phrase I’ve never used) Biden has been talking about it too. I honestly think the only thing stopping Putin using them is because he isn’t that stupid.

No matter what we think, he isn’t stupid - naive perhaps, if reports are to be believed (e.g. about believing false intelligence reports about how easy this war would be etc).

My personal view is that Russia would only isolate itself further if it used nuclear weapons, as a country like China would have no choice but to condemn them for launching a nuclear attack on a non-nuclear nation - and China doesn’t want to publicly declare sides.

[stevyy]

Isn’t that exactly what members of this forum have been saying for months.

yes, but we only got the reach of 10 people here... the media is kinda normalizing and preparing us for that, I fear.

[DnBLover]

franklex that was a really good analysis of how the EU market for Russia is simply not replaceable for Russia in the short to medium term, possibly even long term. It's a huge market, for many reasons Russia has a lot to gain by selling to Europe and a lot to lose, yet Russia propaganda has successfully spread and people actually believe that the EU will be more badly hurt about this than Russia.

[franklex]

I am not surprised. It is a perfect storm. Russia thought that after pandemia the West will not inpose hard sanction. But they fckd up, coz this is exact reason why the West will do thet. All that 'printed' money in 2020..2021 may be collected some how or absorbed by market (generally by inflation). And Putin just made a gift to the West when russia attacked Ukraine. No matter that inflation was created by decisions of previouse year, Russian war is effecting with bad trends West economy that what everyone will say now. That is easier.

Also I did not tell that Russian-Chinese gas pipeline contruction was a loan of China and Russia signed contract where China pay for gas from that loan that Russia should pay to China. So lets say that China already paid for gas and Russia is not getting nothing for now and for a long time.... Costs of that pipe line construction were insane. And russia even agreed that China will decide a price of gas. And it is hidden information what is the price via that pipeline for China. Ithink Russia works for free. The propaganda just says that if EU dont take our gas we will trade with China, And that is alll what everyone's saying.

[stevyy]

franklex that was a really good analysis of how the EU market for Russia is simply not replaceable for Russia in the short to medium term, possibly even long term. It's a huge market, for many reasons Russia has a lot to gain by selling to Europe and a lot to lose, yet Russia propaganda has successfully spread and people actually believe that the EU will be more badly hurt about this than Russia.

This + Russia having to retreat in Ukraine has - for the first time - opened the gates of officials saying negative things about Putin. I hope this is getting some momentum in the coming weeks and months.

Also, imagine this year's winter would be mild... then Russia is especually farked bc they cannot sustain nor afford NOT selling to Europe and longer than maybe 6 more months.

[Artoo]

As horrific as continued war is, the only way to force Putin’s hand is from within Russia itself. The longer their financial problems continue the more opposition there will be towards him.

From what I’ve read a small number of high profile and influential figures have begun speaking up and opposing the war, rejecting the Kremlin narrative. It is a spark of a start, but a spark nonetheless.

The thing I keep thinking back to 9/11 and how the US government brainwashed everyone into becoming patriots and subsequently supporting a false war. Anyone questioning the war became person non grata, and it took the US a long time to wake up.

I have no real idea what the mood of the political landscape is in Russia, but if a democracy like the US can get a whole country to support them, I dread to think what is happening right now in a dictatorship dressed up as a democracy.

[stevyy]

I now know how this could go on:

Putin is currently preparing to hold referendums in the occpied regions... he will then claim that these regions are now Russia too... and should Ukraine actually still be fighting in those regions, he will use nuclear weapons against Ukraine as they are (then) invading Russia.

[franklex]

As horrific as continued war is, the only way to force Putin’s hand is from within Russia itself. The longer their financial problems continue the more opposition there will be towards him.

I am wondering where do you take this information... Here are latest results of HOW Russians support war:
Subject: "Do you, personally, stand for Russian actions in Ukraine or no?"
Dark blue - Definitely YES
Light Blue - Probably Yes
Yellow - Rather No
Red - Definitely No
Grey - Couldn't answer

Each line represents month:
MAR 22
APR 22
...
AUG 22


And another question:

Subject: What kind of feelings brings to you Russian military actions in Ukraine:

Column 1 - MAR 2022 | Column 2 - AUG 2022

Anger 8% | 11%
Shame 5% | 7%
Dipression 6% | 6%
Scare Horror 31% | 31%
Shock 12% | 12%

Satisfaction Happines 7% | 7%
Excitment 7% | 8%
Proud for Russia 51% | 48%

Other feelings 4% | 4%
No feelings 8% | 11%



SholasBoy Mainshow to addition to your previouse discussion.
marat2408 Was I wrong when I said that huge part of russians suppoting a war?

From what I’ve read a small number of high profile and influential figures have begun speaking up and opposing the war, rejecting the Kremlin narrative. It is a spark of a start, but a spark nonetheless.

If you talk about some sort of local representors in Russia the I may tell you medias does not include full speach of those municipal members, They are against putin coz they think he is weak. And he started a war he can not win, put russia in dangerwith latest actions and they want to 'erase Ukraine' becouse they need a win. But they are not against war, they think that Putin is weak.

[franklex]

I now know how this could go on:

Putin is currently preparing to hold referendums in the occpied regions... he will then claim that these regions are now Russia too... and should Ukraine actually still be fighting in those regions, he will use nuclear weapons against Ukraine as they are (then) invading Russia.

He will try but thats is creazy in all those regions are Ukrainian forces and some places that controlled by Ukraine. So he can say that Kharkiv region or Kyiv region or Lviv region is part of Russia and what next??? Nuces?? Ukraine has already attacking Crimea and what they did?? Nothing. That is danger road for him. He can claim what eveer he want but it wont change the situation on the battlefield. He will say that now it is russia but Ukrainian forces will liberate Ukrainian therithory recognized by internation laws. And putin wont be able to protect them... and it will opens road that Ukrainians can also liberate Crimea when they will be ready.
Ukrainian forces officially confirmed that they already atacked Crimea and very intresting explotions are happening all of the time in nearby regions of Russia with Ukraine.
I think it is fake. He can not do nothing. Mobilization of russians needs resources... no free tanks, no guns, no equipment etc... russians will just die in thousands per day if he will send them to the war. And we actually do not know how they will reflact on a real war personally for them. I bet they will run away.

[GreekGeek]

Things just got a lot worse. Many people feared -including me- this day would come. Putin got a lot more aggressive.
https://www.politico.eu/article/puti...ption-ukraine/

[franklex]

Just go??? They are got worse like 4..6 month already... Putin become more agressive only when the West is doing nothing or only conserns:

.... some stuff that happened in russia since 2000s the West wasnt care about it at all. Agression was inside of russia and that has provoked future agression

Last decades the West tried to become friendly with Russia and Russia fount it is waek. And Start war in Georgia increased its agression to out side but far away from Europe. At that place where Europe didnt know it exists. And this provoke futher agression

Last 8 years the West was only consern and keep closed eyes on what is going on inUkraine. Allow putin to anex Crimea. But finally did at least something. BUT NOT ENOGHT! And Putin started war in Ukraine to make from Ukraine a puppet state like Belarus. And thee West only keep talking and talking about some peace or shit around we see or we do not know what is happening in Donbas etc... No sanction only peacetalks and buisness as usual. It provoked Putin to become more agressive

There was also Syria where the West did nothing against Russia again.. Which just make him think that he can elevate his agression again,

And now 2022, the West finally starts waking up... After Kyiv, Bucha, Mariupol, Siverodonetsk... And you say it 'just got'... Shame. His nuces can not change things on the ground. Mariupol was damaged like it was alredy hited with nuclear bombs.
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Now Europe pays its price for beeing stupid for last decades. Europe made mr Putin. The did nothing for decades and make buisness as usual and mr Putin used to it. Now he thinks that he can make another level of agresion and weak west will step back... So now Europe pays for its bills.
And you fear coz u are weak. We here are also scared and feel fear but we are not afraid. Thos who has come from Mariupol those people that saw how their families were killed from those who 'liberate them from nazis' they are not afraid. They felt that next day someone of their family will die but they did not give up. they have lost their sons, husbands, parents or childs there. They wont be scared again, the worst for them already happened.

[Artoo]

Well today’s announcements are, frankly, the ravings of a madman that’s definitely feeling cornered. Apparently people are trying to flee Russia before conscription.

I know it’s wishful thinking and totally Hollywood, but you’d hope someone would have been able to get into Russia and quietly sabotage their nuclear weapons. Not that Russia would announce it and it’s not as if any country would announce they’d done it, but nothing wrong with hoping.

I mean I genuinely can’t see the US allowing Russia to even hint at nuclear weapons being used against them without consequence.

[stevyy]

I think Putin is almost done. He knows it, and his people know it. Should he use nuclear weapons of any kind... nobody in their right mind can continue to support him or his country, not even China. Using nuclear weapons in a war of aggression (and not defense) is completely unheard-of in our collective human history. This would be a break of civilisation - the biggest since The Holocaust... how anyone in Russia can still believe that we are all Nazis while they are all saints i beyond me.

Russian GP, stand up and chase your government out of the country!

[franklex]

[SholasBoy]

Lots of protests being reported in Russia today.

[Artoo]

Lots of protests being reported in Russia today.

I saw that, and I don’t blame them - no one wants to be forced to partake in a war, especially knowing they’re on the wrong side of it. It’s all just very sad and the act of a desperate man. Sadly the media in Russia probably won’t be allowed to report on the protests.

[Artoo]

I think Putin is almost done. He knows it, and his people know it.

I don’t know what his people know, but the fact they are protesting suggests some know what is actually going on. The world is too small nowadays to keep the truth out of Russia. But the Russian people aren’t stupid enough to think a ‘special military exercise’ takes six months. He can dress it up as much as he wants, but if you’re forcing people to wear uniforms and use a gun, it’s a war.

[GreekGeek]

I think Putin is almost done. He knows it, and his people know it. Should he use nuclear weapons of any kind... nobody in their right mind can continue to support him or his country, not even China. Using nuclear weapons in a war of aggression (and not defense) is completely unheard-of in our collective human history. This would be a break of civilisation - the biggest since The Holocaust... how anyone in Russia can still believe that we are all Nazis while they are all saints i beyond me.

Russian GP, stand up and chase your government out of the country!

The US used nuclear weapons against Japan for fun. It wasn't necessary, as at the time Japan had already lost everything, but they did it. I fear it doesn't matter if it's a war of aggrresion or defence.

[LittleLinda]

The US used nuclear weapons against Japan for fun. It wasn't necessary, as at the time Japan had already lost everything, but they did it. I fear it doesn't matter if it's a war of aggrresion or defence.

I was about to say that. To insinuate that the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were a kind of self-defense is a weird way of sugarcoating an absolutely horrific and unnecessary act.

However, I disagree with your last sentence. In today’s day and age I can’t imagine any country who would be bold enough not to condemn Putin, if he dropped nukes on Ukraine.
He would be crazy to do such a thing, as he would risk completely isolating Russia from the rest of the world. That being said: I fear that maybe he actually IS that crazy.

[SholasBoy]

What do you guys make of Erdogan saying that in recent conversations with Putin it seems that Putin is ready to end the war. It seemed like he was suggesting Putin is ready to withdraw, but perhaps it means he’s wanting to step things up to get what he wants quicker.

[Artoo]

What do you guys make of Erdogan saying that in recent conversations with Putin it seems that Putin is ready to end the war. It seemed like he was suggesting Putin is ready to withdraw, but perhaps it means he’s wanting to step things up to get what he wants quicker.

I got the same impression too. Ever since this whole fiasco started we’ve been saying Putin needed a small victory so he could claim his operation had been a success and to withdraw without losing face.

That never happened and here we are. The Ukraine have been marvellous and honestly, if there was a quick way of getting things he’d have done it by now.

He wants the Ukraine. Bombing it with a nuke makes no sense. He wouldn’t be calling up 300,000 people if there was any intention of using nuclear weapons. There is actually speculation they might not even work now.

[franklex]

Russia exchanged around 200 Azov battalion fighters. And forign fighters for Ukraine from UK and US. Finally Russia shit off again. Those guys are so nazis that for long month they could not show any proves or evidence that Azov members are 'nazis'... And even excanged those 'criminals and murderer or not humans' as russians say....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...zelenskiy-says

[franklex]

What do you guys make of Erdogan saying that in recent conversations with Putin it seems that Putin is ready to end the war. It seemed like he was suggesting Putin is ready to withdraw, but perhaps it means he’s wanting to step things up to get what he wants quicker.

In Samarkand everyone told him to end this. And he said he understand thier position. He agrred that he want to end it, but that is Ukraine dont want to peacetalking... I think he fooled everyone there. He wants its 'miliotary operation' comes to an end coz he started loosing all. He wants to get what he has at least now. I think others did understand Putin wrong when he said that he wants to end this... While others think he are ready to withdraw, Putin means to take what he has now.

[franklex]

He wants the Ukraine. Bombing it with a nuke makes no sense. He wouldn’t be calling up 300,000 people if there was any intention of using nuclear weapons. There is actually speculation they might not even work now.

That is nice to see you are good man and for any man bombing yout target make no sense. But not in case of Putin. LOOK at MARIUPOL. This is city which he wanted to 'libeate' and he erased it. It is so russian as its classic litareture (Alexander Ostrovsky):

There is a movie scene:


Translation:
M: Your actions should be punished. But none have a right to jurge you, only me.This I will to decide... Forgive you or not! While I won't be killed.
W: Why are you here?

M: I will do my revange to every of them...
W: Why are you here?

M: I am here for your revange... for every humiliation they have done to you!
W: The strongest humiliation for me is been owned by you!

M: How can you say it? Others playing games where prize is you! Is it not humiliation to you? They find you like you are a property not a human
W: I am property. Finally! Corect describing of what I am has been found... I am property, not a human... Go away. Every property should has its owner.Yes. I will go back to my owner.

M: I am your owner!
W: No! No you ae not! I am to expancive for you! If I should be a property then I should be a very expancive property.
W: No! NO! Leave me! NO! You are so disgusting!
M: You are mine! Mine! I am taking you!
W: Don't touch me! Don't!

M: Understand it! I forgive you all! Just come back! I will forgiv you all!
W: But I wont forgive myself!

M: I am begging you! Do not go! Do not leave me! You can make me happy!
W: Ok. ok.
M: I am ready for everithyng. I am ready to be humiliated
W: Go away! Leave me! You are so pathetic!

M: What should I do? How can I get your love? I love you! I love you!
W: You lie! Lie!

W: I ve beeing looking for love.. And did not find it! Everyone were and are looking at me like to a fun toy. I havent found love, so then I will look for moneys.
W: Help me!
W: I can not be yours!

M: I love you! Hold! If you will not sorry...
M: You should belong to me!
W: NEVER!
M: THEN YOU WILL BELONG TO NOONE!

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This is exactly what can be to Putin. Where M(Man) is Russia, W(woman) is Ukraine and THEY or OTHERS are WEST. And ACTION is Ukraines decision to move western to Nato and EU (Maidan 2014, Revolution of dignity)