War in Ukraine: the UK becomes first country to give long-range missiles to Ukraine

[stevyy]

Sounds like someone is trying to save face if you ask me. Even if the Ukraine accept these conditions, which it very well might considering the civilian losses, it doesn’t excuse the fact Putin is a war criminal and must face justice. There is nothing to be gained by offering Putin his victory, though I hate the idea of a continued conflict, and we Russia must be seen to see him lose in order to remove him from office.

I only want Zelensky to stay president. That's what I really want and I'm glad that Russia is not demanding his death (anymore).

[theMathematician]

Seems like dramatic stevyy is back .

Let me sum it up:
1. Russia's invasion is enjoying high approval within the Russian population.
2. The West is helping the Ukraine but seems unable to have an impact on Putin no matter how hard the financial sanctions may seem.
3. As often as the media says that the Ukrainian popularity is fighting so bravely and that the Russian soldiers have caused so many mistakes, the war goes on - to the disadvantage of the Ukrainians.

What's necessary is a solution that both parties can live with with Putin being given the opportunity to save face.
I recently read about something and wonder what you think about it: the Ukraine being divided into a East and a West part with the East one being pro Russia, thinking of the division between East and West Germany or North and South Korea.
Could this be the solution?

[stevyy]

Could this be the solution?

It's not a reasonable solution as it is creating a Palestine situation in Europe. The only thing that I can see happening is Ukraine accepting the two new republics + crimea... demilitarization is out of question due to Putin's invasion... and a status of neutrality is also stupid, as Ukraine will end up in the EU one way or another.

[theMathematician]

A compromise needs to happen in any kind of way, so if that's what stops this horrible war, so be it.

[ferrero]

Saving face? the demands are exactly the same as before war started.

Point 1 is all due to Porovshenko amending the Constitution to force Ukraine join NATO, and Zelensky not carrying out a referendum which he said they should.

In 2019, Ukraine president Porovshenko amended the Constitution to force the country join NATO. To receive NATO membership action plan (MAP) no later than 2023.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-pre...amendment-on-nato-eu-membership/29779430.html

In 2022, Ukraine president Zelensky said there should be referendum for NATO membership, but did nothing to repeal the Constitution amendment or call for referendum.

https://globalhappenings.com/opinion/106383.html

Now, will Zelensky (or the forces behind him) agree to these terms?

[aRat]

[Artoo]

Saving face? the demands are exactly the same as before war started.

They are, but the landscape has changed dramatically since then.

Putin thought his army would be able to take the Ukraine and overthrow the government in a day or two - it didn’t happen. He expected his military operation to be over before the world could react, and probably never imagined this would turn into an all out war between nations. He knows he has damaged Russia and for what?

His current demands might match the demands he made pre-war, but the difference is he might be appeased if he gets them now. Putin is now in the awkward position of having the Ukraine potentially refusing him and continuing the war.

Thus, the balance of power has shifted and it has moved against him. Only a desperate man would threaten nuclear terrorism. Putin needs a win. He needs something to show the Russian people it was all worth it. He must save face.

In the long term Russia is destined to lose. Their leader is now a war criminal and nuclear terrorist. The world will not go back to how it was, and sanctions placed upon Russia will probably (and I am guessing here) remain in place until Putin is punished for his crimes and Russia gives up some of their nuclear weapons.

So the question is - will the Ukraine accept? There are benefits to both a ‘yes’ and a ‘no’ and I don’t know if there is a right or wrong answer. But I’m pretty sure I know what Putin is hoping for.

[theMathematician]

I definitely side with Artoo here.

[jordi_89]

Let me sum it up:
1. Russia's invasion is enjoying high approval within the Russian population.

For now, but the protests seem to be increasing. Who knows if his support will remain high when everybody starts feeling the effects of the sanctions.

I recently read about something and wonder what you think about it: the Ukraine being divided into a East and a West part with the East one being pro Russia, thinking of the division between East and West Germany or North and South Korea.
Could this be the solution?

Before the war I would have said "maybe", specially before 2014. But now? I doubt even the pro-Russia regions would accept it (talking about the East, excluding the 2 separatist regions). I saw a threat talking about how the political differences between East and West have been decreasing since 2014 because of policies adopted by the government and because of Russia's constant threats and aggressions (and their archaic understanding of what Ukraine is). Maybe that thread didn't tell the full story, but when even the Eastern regions are completely pro-EU (almost 60% I think), and an even split (42% / 43%) between pro and anti NATO (big difference from 10 years ago) based on polls, that just tells you they may speak Russian and be ethnically Russian (or whatever), but they won't just side with Russia without good reason.

[jordi_89]

Sounds like an abusive ex but ok

[Rihab]

Seems like dramatic stevyy is back .

Let me sum it up:
1. Russia's invasion is enjoying high approval within the Russian population.
2. The West is helping the Ukraine but seems unable to have an impact on Putin no matter how hard the financial sanctions may seem.
3. As often as the media says that the Ukrainian popularity is fighting so bravely and that the Russian soldiers have caused so many mistakes, the war goes on - to the disadvantage of the Ukrainians.

What's necessary is a solution that both parties can live with with Putin being given the opportunity to save face.
I recently read about something and wonder what you think about it: the Ukraine being divided into a East and a West part with the East one being pro Russia, thinking of the division between East and West Germany or North and South Korea.
Could this be the solution?

Great idea. And next week, we split Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The week after that Poland. And then Germany.

If we give even a square meter to this uninhibited imperialist, he'll come back for more once his military has recovered.

[jordi_89]

The Ukrainian "divide" isn't as big as some may think (again, based on polls). Only 30% on the Russian speaking parts think Russia will play a big role / have a positive impact in next decade's global politics. +53% for the EU (being literally next to Russia) and 70% think the EU will have a positive impact in international politics for the next decade.

[theMathematician]

Rihab : I know, but it seems like the Ukraine won't win, and Russia won't give up either, so have you got another idea to end this war? There needs to be a quick answer or we'll have another mess like with Syria back then.

[stevyy]

Rihab : I know, but it seems like the Ukraine won't win, and Russia won't give up either, so have you got another idea to end this war? There needs to be a quick answer or we'll have another mess like with Syria back then.

Putin cannot win either.. If nobody finds a solution, then this war will continue indefinitely.

[Rihab]

I believe Ukraine can win.

[SholasBoy]

What is there even to return to with Ukraines biggest cities left in ruins.

[aRat]

I believe Ukraine can win.

Same. The longer this conflict is prolonged the higher chances get simply because Russia cannot continue like this for much longer while ukranians can continue resisting for years. Russia will lose most of its troops and will have its economy flattened.

I think there will be massive unrests in Russia the coming weeks once all the sanctions settle in.

[aRat]

What is there even to return to with Ukraines biggest cities left in ruins.

I live in an area that was bombed to the ground during WW2 so yes they can return and create something new

[SholasBoy]

I live in an area that was bombed to the ground during WW2 so yes they can return and create something new

Yes, you're right tbf, it's just when you see the state of the buildings and ruins it's hard to imagine a return to any kind of normal civilisation.

[stevyy]

Yes, you're right tbf, it's just when you see the state of the buildings and ruins it's hard to imagine a return to any kind of normal civilisation.

when the war is over, I expect the west to pump eons of money into Ukraine for rebuilding.

[stevyy]

Same. The longer this conflict is prolonged the higher chances get simply because Russia cannot continue like this for much longer while ukranians can continue resisting for years. Russia will lose most of its troops and will have its economy flattened.

I think there will be massive unrests in Russia the coming weeks once all the sanctions settle in.

... in theory... but once China is stepping in aiding Russia... then it is game over (economically speaking)... China is currently sponsoring North Korea too... (not very successfully for the people in NK, but still). Otherwise NK would have collapsed 40 years ago.

[Parkelife]

... in theory... but once China is stepping in aiding Russia... then it is game over (economically speaking)... China is currently sponsoring North Korea too... (not very successfully for the people in NK, but still). Otherwise NK would have collapsed 40 years ago.

That's why China needs to have sanctions placed on them soon, a number of countries have already said it.

[theMathematician]

Putin cannot win either.. If nobody finds a solution, then this war will continue indefinitely.

Du weißt doch, dass wir im Deutschen "Lieber ein Ende mit Schrecken als ein Schrecken ohne Ende." sagen. That's why I fear that a compromise has to happen, and yes, it will include that the Ukraine will have to make concessions towards Russia, and Russia will consider it somehow a victory. But once Putin feels secure, he will get deported to The Hague - assuming the West has got balls.

Those current sanctions won't work as long as Russia can hold hands with China, so the West actually has got little to hurt Russia at the moment.

[Artoo]

There is no benefit to China from a global war. UK / China trade was £81.1 billion in 2020. US / China trade was worth $615.2 billion in the same year. I think China understands working together benefits everyone, whereas Russia is only looking after Russia.

[Rihab]

China <<< US + EU + allies

We are already hurting them and we can hurt them harder if we have to. Putin won't win this one.