War in Ukraine: the UK becomes first country to give long-range missiles to Ukraine

[franklex]

Yes, what I'm writing is obviously my opinion.I didn't say I have some proves or something. I said I do not understand that opinion and explained why I can not get it. I don't understand why I should agree with everyone and everything is being said here by someone. It seems like everyone can say what they think but only me should agree with everyone on everything, right? And I even said that If my opinion is wrong I will change it when will appear more facts.

[franklex]

Just to make it clear. I do respect stevyys opinion. He brings some reasons that make sense. He pointed them out, I didn't get some of them.

[theMathematician]

Some Russian rich dude called Oleg Tinkow claimed to have given up on his Russian citizenship (source).

I have to say that the behavior of many Russians is so embarassing. For months, Putin had an extremely high approval among his citizens and apart from a very small opposition, no one spoke out agains the war - especially not the oligarchs. They didn't bat an eye as long as their money was save. Now that he's announced the partial mobilization, all of a sudden they come out of their holes claiming how they no longer want to live in Russia and stuff like that. Does it realistically change anything though? I have way more respect for the Iranian women going on the streets and fighting for their rights

[stevyy]

Some Russian rich dude called Oleg Tinkow claimed to have given up on his Russian citizenship (source).

I have to say that the behavior of many Russians is so embarassing. For months, Putin had an extremely high approval among his citizens and apart from a very small opposition, no one spoke out agains the war - especially not the oligarchs. They didn't bat an eye as long as their money was save. Now that he's announced the partial mobilization, all of a sudden they come out of their holes claiming how they no longer want to live in Russia and stuff like that. Does it realistically change anything though? I have way more respect for the Iranian women going on the streets and fighting for their rights

My opinion on this is... that I have a lot of understanding for the Russian people. They are - at large - misinformed and indoctrinated. I think it is very logical and reasonable that the more they suffer under this war, the more they will step out and either flee or demonstrate... but since protesting is against the law in Russia and punishable by 15 years in some sort of work-camp-prison...I think that fleeing might be their only way of protesting right now.

Real change can only happen when the people at the top or in power will stop Putin.

It's in some way comparable to Nazi Germany... 90% of everyone was in the Nazi Party... but not everyone was a Nazi. If you weren't in that party, you'd lose your job and social standing. if a tyrannical leader / despot is at his peak, there is not much anyone can do. Change comes from the top if the GP is hiding.

[theMathematician]

I get your point, though it feels phony in the case of that particular oligarch. I guess it all comes down to the general question: How do you react when you're deeply dissatisfied with your country's political situation? I guess there are only three options:
1. You ignore/endure it.
2. You actively protest against it.
3. You leave it.

[Zeph]

I get your point, though it feels phony in the case of that particular oligarch. I guess it all comes down to the general question: How do you react when you're deeply dissatisfied with your country's political situation? I guess there are only three options:
1. You ignore/endure it.
2. You actively protest against it.
3. You leave it.

In a free Country or free world all the ways you cited would be possible. In Putin’s world much like Hitler’s, #1 is somewhat possible but you still are forced to “obey” the laws he implemented; #2 gets you locked up for 15 years and #3 is more difficult for the who are older and even when they do escape, they literally land in another country not knowing the language and basically at their mercy. The many who escaped, the educated, they have more of a chance of survival, however due to $$ they found themselves in Georgia or Turkey which is by far better than being under Putin’s thumb. But how far is far enough?

[theMathematician]

I personally believe that No. 3 can alter someone's personal destiny but will never actually impact the political conditions that lead to someone feeling forced to leave the country, so it should really be the last option if everything else has been tried.
And yeah, No. 2 is a tough one in autocratic countries and comes along with a high risk for you and your loved ones. I'm still very proud of the ones who choose that path as I believe that it's the only way to establish a continuous change in society.

[Rihab]

It's difficult to say for sure, but if I were Russian or Ukrainian, I probably would've left a long time ago. Don't love my country more than I love myself.

Theoretically, it should never happen again because unlike 90 years ago, anti-democratic parties can simply be banned nowadays.. But if something like AfD ever came into power, it's safe to say I'd be out of here in a matter of hours. Hubby and me are lucky to own 4 passports, so we'll be fine. And I've always liked France better anyway. But sucks for everyone who's left behind though.

[theMathematician]

Well, France has got LePen and her party has got higher approval rates than the German counterpart. But it seems to be a matter of mentality. Some leave at little inconvenience (An example would be the influencer who moved to Dubai during the peak of the Covid crisis.), some only if they've tried every possible milder option, some would rather die than leave because it goes against their pride.

Let me refer to one sentence of your last post: 'anti-democratic parties can simply be banned nowadays..'
It's easy to ban any party in an autoritarian state as opposed to a democratic state. In Germany, for example, it's close to impossible to ban a party. It may be monitored by the defense of constitution, but that's pretty much it already. It should be the same in most European countries as well as Northern America.

[Rihab]

As usual, I'd advise people to actually read the constitution they're talking about. Anti-democratic parties can be banned in Germany, it has happened before and just a few years ago, it almost happened again to NPD. The only reason why the justices decided against it back then was because the party was too irrelevant.

AfD is significantly more relevant than NPD ever was though. Not relevant enough to warrant a ban (yet), but if they ever got anywhere near government the constitutional court would be forced to intervene.

I don't talk to ghosts though and this discussion is very OT, so I'll leave it here.

[jordi_89]

Some Russian rich dude called Oleg Tinkow claimed to have given up on his Russian citizenship (source).

I have to say that the behavior of many Russians is so embarassing. For months, Putin had an extremely high approval among his citizens and apart from a very small opposition, no one spoke out agains the war - especially not the oligarchs. They didn't bat an eye as long as their money was save. Now that he's announced the partial mobilization, all of a sudden they come out of their holes claiming how they no longer want to live in Russia and stuff like that. Does it realistically change anything though? I have way more respect for the Iranian women going on the streets and fighting for their rights

Small opposition? Hasn't Russia lost more than a million people since the war? And 300k of them left in the first month of the invasion. Maybe it didn't make the news like the "700k Russians left since the conscription began" because it's not as crazy of a headline. But people have been leaving for a while now. And most of them either college educated or wealthy (or straight up rich). I'm not embarassed for those staying in their country because they're victims of indoctrination (same as in plenty other countries btw), and I'm even less embarassed of those hundreds of thousands leaving their home country to live somewhere else. If anything I'm embarassed for those in power in Russia that aren't doing anything to stop this, and those that volunteered to fight an imperialistic war. Those are the people I'm embarassed for.

[jordi_89]

It's difficult to say for sure, but if I were Russian or Ukrainian, I probably would've left a long time ago. Don't love my country more than I love myself.

Theoretically, it should never happen again because unlike 90 years ago, anti-democratic parties can simply be banned nowadays.. But if something like AfD ever came into power, it's safe to say I'd be out of here in a matter of hours. Hubby and me are lucky to own 4 passports, so we'll be fine. And I've always liked France better anyway. But sucks for everyone who's left behind though.

Gurl let's hope it never comes to that, because it's a scary thought. But again look at Italy (which was kind of expected but still frightening). The good thing is that I can only see AfD winning in the East of the country, not the entire country, at least based on polls and voting history.

[theMathematician]

jordi_89 : Well, then let me rephrase it. It felt like a small opposition compared to what you'd expect, from a central European point of view, as reaction to the president starting an invasive war in what once was considered their sister state. I remember the national news reporting about demonstrations in Russia, but they felt insignificant compared to other international demonstrations. At one point after the start of the war, Putin had approval rates above 70%, which is more than what some European countries not involved in a war have. I remember reports saying that resistance in the bigger cities was bigger than on the countryside, but even there, many of the more wealthy people were reported to keep having lived their lives as usual - despite an ongoing war.
Regarding the AfD: Nationally, they are at ~ 15% and in the Eastern states between 25% and 30%. I can see them eventually winning elections in the East. Why they struggle to come close to that on a national level (unlike e.g. Sweden or Italy) is related to the mentality of Germans. Even in periods of high dissatisfaction with the government's work, many citizens believe that it's a no go to vote far right. It's more of a social taboo than in other countries.

[jordi_89]

jordi_89 : Well, then let me rephrase it. It felt like a small opposition compared to what you'd expect, from a central European point of view, as reaction to the president starting an invasive war in what once was considered their sister state. I remember the national news reporting about demonstrations in Russia, but they felt insignificant compared to other international demonstrations. At one point after the start of the war, Putin had approval rates above 70%, which is more than what some European countries not involved in a war have. I remember reports saying that resistance in the bigger cities was bigger than on the countryside, but even there, many of the more wealthy people were reported to keep having lived their lives as usual - despite an ongoing war.
Regarding the AfD: Nationally, they are at ~ 15% and in the Eastern states between 25% and 30%. I can see them eventually winning elections in the East. Why they struggle to come close to that on a national level (unlike e.g. Sweden or Italy) is related to the mentality of Germans. Even in periods of high dissatisfaction with the government's work, many citizens believe that it's a no go to vote far right. It's more of a social taboo than in other countries.

I know it's not comparable IN ANY WAY to what's happening in Ukraine, but back in 2017-2019 the Catalan independence movement was at its peak and we were about to have a Referendum. When the Spanish media and politicians started spreading hate against us (for months) and then they sent the police to beat the crap out of voters in polling stations, no one from Spain (other than Catalans and Basques) that had influence said anything in our favour. No "big opposition", no demonstrations, no resistance. People just accepted what was happening even if some of them disagreed. Except for those affected. I repeat, it's not comparable to Ukraine but it's not unheard of to see people from a European country "comply" to what their government is doing. Because most people consume media from their own country, and that shapes how you think about some stuff. You may not vote for the party that's in power, but you're gonna side with them if all of the media are telling you that "the others" are evil and they need to be dealt with. Another example is how most of the UK are against Brexit now, but you don't see protests or riots just because their government is messing up big time with all they've done in the past 1-2 years. They voted, some of them were misinformed, and others thought they'd get a way better deal than they got. Now instead of forcing another vote (with "opposition" like you said), they've just accepted that that's their new reality. I think the only Europeans that do protest massively when things don't go their way are the French nowadays.


Btw regarding AfD, I think a similar situation happens in Italy, doesn't it? Didn't the far-right win in the North (Veneto) but not in the South? Maybe that was in the previous elections, I'd have to look that up. It's kinda curious that the areas of Germany that were part of the Soviet Union are the ones where the far-right is at the top of the polls right now. They're also the areas with a smaller share of migrant population, as well. (anyway this is all off topic, sorry)

[franklex]

Small opposition? Hasn't Russia lost more than a million people since the war? And 300k of them left in the first month of the invasion. Maybe it didn't make the news like the "700k Russians left since the conscription began" because it's not as crazy of a headline.

I would a bit change your sentance into: Maybe it didn't make the news like the "0.48% of Russians left since the conscription began" because it's not as crazy of a headline.
And this is opposition??? This is 0,5% Compar it to 17,84% of Ukrainians flied their homes....

Russians keep living well. They do not care about war. They care only about them personally. They did nothing to stop it for years when power of Putin wasnt that much like it is now. And they do nothing even now when they can be mobilized to go to war and likely to die for nothing.

[jordi_89]

I would a bit change your sentance into: Maybe it didn't make the news like the "0.48% of Russians left since the conscription began" because it's not as crazy of a headline.
And this is opposition??? This is 0,5% Compar it to 17,84% of Ukrainians flied their homes....

Russians keep living well. They do not care about war. They care only about them personally. They did nothing to stop it for years when power of Putin wasnt that much like it is now. And they do nothing even now when they can be mobilized to go to war and likely to die for nothing.

Some Russians don't care and are living like nothing's happening, that's true. But I was replying to a comment talking about Russians in general and their attitude towards the invasion. Of course the Ukrainian population is going through something way worse. No one doubts that. Still almost 1% of the population leaving the country in less than a year (when you're not the one being invaded) is quite huge. It'd be like 3M US citizens leaving for Canada or the UK in less than a year.

[franklex]

Yeah guys thats so bad to go in russia to jail for 15 years but not bad to go to frontline to kill people but most likely just die in the field....

And nice to read about your illusions about russians and how you are not embaressing of them leaving their country instead od doing somthing. And none of you do not undrstand that 700k of russians that left the country WOULD not go to jail if they would at last protest against the war. There is no place for 700k prisioners or even more. The truth is that they are just selfish and do not want to do anything.

Aftr mobilization has started and deths of those mobilized has to take place, russians protesting only against that they are not trained and did not quiped properly for killing ukrainians and they asks Putin to help their family membrs be equiped but not STOP THIS WAR.

[jordi_89]

Yeah guys thats so bad to go in russia to jail for 15 years but not bad to go to frontline to kill people but most likely just die in the field....

And nice to read about your illusions about russians and how you are not embaressing of them leaving their country instead od doing somthing. And none of you do not undrstand that 700k of russians that left the country WOULD not go to jail if they would at last protest against the war. There is no place for 700k prisioners or even more. The truth is that they are just selfish and do not want to do anything.

Aftr mobilization has started and deths of those mobilized has to take place, russians protesting only against that they are not trained and did not quiped properly for killing ukrainians and they asks Putin to help their family membrs be equiped but not STOP THIS WAR.

What do you mean they would not go to jail? Didn't they make more than 15000 arrests just the first 2 months of the invasion? I guess most people are already out of jail, but all of them? They still arrested people in the protests from 1-2 weeks ago (don't know the exact number). It may not be enough to topple the regime, but some people are still protesting.

[franklex]

Some Russians don't care and are living like nothing's happening, that's true. But I was replying to a comment talking about Russians in general and their attitude towards the invasion. Of course the Ukrainian population is going through something way worse. No one doubts that.

I man that just curious: Why those who is in power in Russia that aren't doing anything to stop this, Why they should do anything if russians do not care about it. If 0,5% of those who dont like it and won't do anything against their power and will just left russia... What should put those in power into any changes??? It is all work perfect for russians, for those who are agreed and those who are not. They just keep allow this to proceed.

[theMathematician]

jordi_89 : 700k is not much for a country as big as Russia. I looked it up and almost 1m people left Germany last year alone - without Gernany being immediately affected by a war.

[franklex]

What do you mean they would not go to jail? Didn't they make more than 15000 arrests just the first 2 months of the invasion? I guess most people are already out of jail, but all of them? They still arrested people in the protests from 1-2 weeks ago (don't know the exact number). It may not be enough to topple the regime, but some people are still protesting.

Look, I mean that what is happening with mobilized russians. Many of those 300k are stocked at some points on the way to front line just becouse there is not enogh of stuff that should equipe so many people and bring to them equpment that they should have. That system just can not take more people.

So I bet if lets say 2M of citizens of Moscow and lets say 1M of Saint Pitersburg's citizens make a massive protest agains the war the system could not deal with that numbr eather. Or vn with thos 700k who has left russia. And lets imagine that russian police captured them all, where all those 700k should go next??? Is there place for 700k+ prisioners??? Thay can not take a deal with 300k mobilized russians. I bet russians could not give 700k+ courtts cases eather.

[franklex]

That is the point. They have arested 15k, left many of them because they just do not have needed facilities. I want to see how russian would arest few milions....

[franklex]

Now is starting hard priod for Ukraine

For Ukraine it is winter under the shellings and pressure on Ukraine from the West to give Putin what he wants - a break till Spring '23 till which he can equipe and training his mobilized thousands of new troops.

Seems nice from the West: Hey, Ukraine talk with Putin about peace it "maybe" will prevent him to shelling you during the winter. But what will happened after the West do not want to tell.... And what will garantee that he will stop th West is not tell to Ukraine too...

I hope Ukraine will make it clear: we want peace but not a fake one. And only when russia will be ready to take their troops out of Ukraine as recognized intrnationally country within borders of 1991 which Russia excepted too in many agreements before.

[jordi_89]

So I bet if lets say 2M of citizens of Moscow and lets say 1M of Saint Pitersburg's citizens make a massive protest agains the war the system could not deal with that numbr eather. Or vn with thos 700k who has left russia. And lets imagine that russian police captured them all, where all those 700k should go next??? Is there place for 700k+ prisioners??? Thay can not take a deal with 300k mobilized russians. I bet russians could not give 700k+ courtts cases eather.

Oh that is true. Let's hope something like this happens in the near future.

[franklex]

This will not happned. Russians have ashemed ukrainians for Maidan back in 2014, when our pro-russian power tried to made a russia from us and refused to dvelope Ukraine as a state of EU and instead want to join us to rusian union. That power even made a special police unit and adopted Ukrainian anti-protest laws.

But ukrainians did not allowed it to proceed for months. And ordinary russians in any way, always, saying and trying to prove that Maidan was a fail for Ukraine, or it was paid, or it was a fake, or it is illigal, or anything else. They are all, who are "russian opposition" or "putin supporters", they are all asheming ukrainians for Maidan. They can not to accept that we were brave and courage and not agreed with our power and did not let them do what they want. So this won't happened in Russia.