War in Ukraine

[stevyy]

Oh that is true. Let's hope something like this happens in the near future.

I hope so too. It would be the ideal end to this madness... the Russian people finally finding the strength to say NO and get rid of Mister P. who... hopefully won't be replaced by an even worse politician... but a sane one. It is my strong belief that Europe could benefit so much from a democratic Russia - and so could the world. It would be a completely historical shift and not this fake arse distortion that we've seen since 1991.

[theMathematician]

For once, I agree with you on a political topic. Can I say that I officially stan the serious version of you (the occasionally dramatic one not that much though )?

[Artoo]

The Daily Mail are reporting that:

Vladimir Putin has been offered surrender terms by the West, a respected Russian policy expert revealed today, as Moscow's troops were forced to withdraw from the city of Kherson in yet another humiliating defeat.

Professor Valery Solovey, formerly at Moscow's prestigious Institute of International Relations and who claims to have connections in the Kremlin, said the surrender would see Russia give up all territory in Ukraine with the exception of Crimea, which would become a demilitarised zone and its status would not be discussed again until 2029.

In return, Putin and his cronies would avoid criminal charges over the war and be allowed to remain in power, Professor Solovey claimed. He said the proposal had been discussed between Kyiv and its Western allies before being presented to Putin's inner circle - who had reacted positively to the idea.

[jordi_89]

The Daily Mail are reporting that:

I mean, it wouldn't surprise me if the West offered them that. But I don't know if either Ukraine or Russia are going to accept that. And even if they do, Russia is going to continue to send nationalists to those regions to stir things up until they attack again.

[stevyy]

I mean, it wouldn't surprise me if the West offered them that. But I don't know if either Ukraine or Russia are going to accept that. And even if they do, Russia is going to continue to send nationalists to those regions to stir things up until they attack again.

Maybe by 2029 Ukraine will be a part of the EU... which would make it harder to invade then. The second the war ends, I assume that Ukraine will re-arm itself to the teeth which might create some sort of Taiwan situation in Europe.

[Artoo]

Maybe by 2029 Ukraine will be a part of the EU... which would make it harder to invade then. The second the war ends, I assume that Ukraine will re-arm itself to the teeth which might create some sort of Taiwan situation in Europe.

The EU isn’t a military alliance though, so I’m not sure how that would make things harder? My concern is, if any of this is even real (no one else is reporting it) that it simply sounds like a delaying tactic until 2029 - but what happens then?

Sure, Putin could be gone by then (natural death or politically removed etc) but even if he’s placed it doesn’t mean his successor thinks any different, and all that will change in the interim is both sides train up a generation of nee soldiers.

There’s also no talk of reparation - and the Ukraine deserves that. Russia cannot just be allowed to walk away from this mess without consequence.

The Ukraine should be allowed to join both the EU and NATO if that’s what it wants to do. Any deal where they agree not to is actually a win for Russia and I can’t support that - not that my opinion makes any difference

[theMathematician]

There’s also no talk of reparation - and the Ukraine deserves that. Russia cannot just be allowed to walk away from this mess without consequence.

Actually I'm already missing consequences, to be honest. I mean yeah, there are those economic sanctions, but they aren't hurting Russia one bit. I remember when Russian soldiers left Bucha and it seemed important for the West to track signs of war crimes, which only makes sense if the people who committed those crimes face legal consequences. How can Russian politicians still attend international meetings without getting arrested?
Germany had to pay a lot of reparation costs post-WW2. Will Russia have to do the same?

And the most important question: Will the Ukrainian people unite again or will it be a broken country with its former citizens distributed all over the world?

[franklex]

The Daily Mail are reporting that:

And that is started. Russia desires any type or talk like that, but Ukraine wont agree.

I am sorry but daily mail looks like do not vn what to say... Just read this:
Professor and connections in the Kremlin... Really??? It sounds so stupid...I dont even say that 'formerly at Moscow's prestigious Institute of International Relations' sounds lik that russian claimed that institute prestigious. First time hear about it. And what is Int Relathionships and Russia???
They also are saying Moscow's troops... Really?? This is russian troops! And in fact there is not as much soilders from Moscow.
So this in totl looks like a Krmlin propaganda. I guess this is the point why is none is talking about it. It looks fak-ish to me.

-----------------------------

the proposal had been discussed between Kyiv and its Western allies before being presented to Putin's inner circle
this is a total bulsht. If someone, even if it will, lets say Zelensky, say something like this and tell to Ukrainians to not be Crimea discussed until 2029 and just keep all like nothing happened, he (Zelensky) will be throw out like Yanukowitz from Ukraine. And there will be a massive demonstrations against anything of it. Ukrainians will not accept none of what said this professor, no matter even if th West will agreed on this sht.

*russia withdraws on its own or Ukraine will do it step by step.
*Ukrainians are agreed on rturning Crimea and Donbas there is a question just which way and how.
*Reparations are mandatory.
* Joining NATO as prrotection. No any memorandums or agreements with russia.

This professor do not understand point that Ukrainans will not agr and our powr just repating that everyone is thinking, but professor thinks that if someon say to ukrain do it, ukrainians will just accept it... And that mans that he do not see Ukraine as a sovergn country with a will of its people. And this is typical Kremlins point of view.

So I would not discuss this "professor with contacts in Kremlin" anymore. Ukrainians will not accept any of what he was talking about.

[Artoo]

The Daily Mail is one of the largest and oldest news publications in the UK. I am not a fan (homophobic, xenophobic, right wing, fear-mongering etc), but as a source the reported news is something worth posting.

The truth is no one, anywhere, knows what is going on behind closed doors. Publicly we can see that Russia is retreating from regions Putin declared ‘would be a apart of Russia forever’, and he very well could be looking for an exit strategy. Public guarantees that The Ukraine won’t discuss join NATO or raise the issue of Crimea until 2029 is a ‘public win’ for Putin no matter how large his actual ambitions were.

In terms of The Ukraine, the article does suggest that Zelensky was fully aware of the surrender offer before it was made. The Ukraine did not start this war but I don’t think it’s going to get everything it wants either. For example, it is not The Ukraine’s decision as to whether it can join NATO. Then there’s the actual politics that needs to play out - if The West and Russia agree (hypothetically) to terms of a surrender but The Ukraine refuses to accept it, how does that impact its relationships with The West, NATO and The EU?

So the end of the conflict is going to be tough on both sides, no matter if this news is real or not. Putting this news to one side, Russia has shown it’s not interested in international laws. Considering The Ukraine isn’t invading Russia, I honestly don’t know how anyone could force a surrender onto Russia - Putin isn’t going to be removed from power and how can anyone actually force Russia to pay reparations? So the ideal in my opinion is for both sides to come to an agreeement where they both get a little of what they both want and both declare victories - which is what is suggested in this supposed surrender.

[jio]

To be honest I doubt this war will end with any kind of agreement because, this war has something unique in comparison to any war I have seen in my lifetime: nobody attempts to mediate. Turkey made some half-hearted efforts in the beginning but that was about it. Even in wars where the US/West had lots in stake such as Iraq or Kosovo, there were various attemps at mediation, here there are none. So in that sense, the pre-mentioned article is kinda hopeful but who offered that proposal? Saying the west did is kinda vague.

I am assuming that the war will continue until Putin loses power. Ukraine will keep on being fed with lies that they can take all their territory back, that they will join the EU/NATO and other unrealistic dreams in order to keep on receiving weapons so they keep the pressure on Putin (notice the term Putin's war is used much more in western media than Russia's war) and who cares if in the meantime they (or the war they keep fighting) destroy their country beyond repair. Whoever wants to leave Ukraine can go and work in the EU freely (so people won't turn against the war) and this will go on not until Ukraine gets destroyed completely but until Putin is off power.

I am also assuming that when Putin loses power and a new government that is in the liking of the west emerges in Moscow, it will be rewarded with Crimea, Ukraine will get a pat on the back, some humanitarian assistance and will join Georgia and Moldova in the EU's waiting room.

PS: I do consider Biden the worst American president since George Bush junior.

[jio]

On second read, let me also say that that "peace" proposal is totally bollocks. To mediate successfully you need to have something for both sides to gain, that proposal would leave Russia with far less than they had before the beginning of the war (same territory but with a Russian acceptance that Crimea might not remain Russian after 2029 after all) so signing such a deal would guarantee Putin's downfall as he will have nothing to present to his people... which means Putin won't ever sign it.

[Wayne]

The Daily Mail are reporting that:

If true, that would mean Putin escapes any attempt to bring him and his country to justice for the last 9 months. While I accept that this would be convenient for the West - and May even be satisfactory to the leaders of Ukraine - it really gets to me that for bringing war to Europe and massacring thousands of innocent Ukrainian people and putting his own people into harms way, he will get away with it all.

If indeed the West are trying to broker a deal with Russia, Putin should also be forced to stomach the cost of all the reparations - it’s going to take a long time to rebuild Ukraine.

[jio]

If true, that would mean Putin escapes any attempt to bring him and his country to justice for the last 9 months. While I accept that this would be convenient for the West - and May even be satisfactory to the leaders of Ukraine - it really gets to me that for bringing war to Europe and massacring thousands of innocent Ukrainian people and putting his own people into harms way, he will get away with it all.

If indeed the West are trying to broker a deal with Russia, Putin should also be forced to stomach the cost of all the reparations - it’s going to take a long time to rebuild Ukraine.

If the insistence on justice delays peace, is it really worth it?

[Wayne]

If the insistence on justice delays peace, is it really worth it?

I don’t know - how many lives are we willing to write off?

[jio]

I don’t know - how many lives are we willing to write off?

Depends how many months this will go on for. I mean at this point it's pretty clear that Russia cannot win but can still definitely cause havoc in Ukraine easily, so now it's the time to negotiate peace. The more delay, the more lives lost

[Wayne]

Depends how many months this will go on for. I mean at this point it's pretty clear that Russia cannot win but can still definitely cause havoc in Ukraine easily, so now it's the time to negotiate peace. The more delay, the more lives lost

Well, it’s also clear that they are not just losing but retreating - so who knows what the next few months holds. In any case, the leaders of Ukraine must decide their future and whatever they decide, it is imperative that the West supports them.

If Ukraine does decide that peace now is what they want, then so be it - we should then immediately bring them into NATO so that something like this is unlikely to ever happen again, as next time, it may not just be the (est.) 200,000 Russian and Ukrainian lives lost but an entire world conflict.

[stevyy]

Well, it’s also clear that they are not just losing but retreating - so who knows what the next few months holds. In any case, the leaders of Ukraine must decide their future and whatever they decide, it is imperative that the West supports them.

If Ukraine does decide that peace now is what they want, then so be it - we should then immediately bring them into NATO so that something like this is unlikely to ever happen again, as next time, it may not just be the (est.) 200,000 Russian and Ukrainian lives lost but an entire world conflict.

I doubt that Turkey would support Ukraine becoming a Nato member, seeing as the country is currently still working against Sweden's and Finland's entry.

[jio]

Ukraine has no place whatsoever in the EU or NATO. Remember that the most likely scenario is that even in the best of possibilities, it will be left with at least some territorry under Russian occupation and with a rather large population and destroyed economy. That is a country with absolutely nothing to offer to the alliance (other than soldiers) and let's not even go into why it cannot join the EU either. So all those promises are pretty emtpy IMO

[stevyy]

Ukraine has no place whatsoever in the EU or NATO. Remember that the most likely scenario is that even in the best of possibilities, it will be left with at least some territorry under Russian occupation and with a huge and destroyed economy. That is a country with absolutely nothing to offer to the alliance (other than soldiers) and let's not even go into why it cannot join the EU either. So all those promises are pretty emtpy IMO

So, you don't think that an exception could be made, so it could end up in the EU? Maybe an Ukrainian "Marshall Plan" will help.

[jio]

So, you don't think that an exception could be made, so it could end up in the EU? Maybe an Ukrainian "Marshall Plan" will help.

Sure, an exception could be made and Ukraine could enter on special terms that make it an EU member in name only but what would such a move achieve anyway? Ukraine is simply too big and too poor to join, it was so even before the war, it's more so right now. It would dry out all EU funds by itself, it would flood the EU with migrants (Polish plumber would be nothing in comparison) while it will be the 4th biggest country in the European parliament, that is simply not happening.

Oh, do we also want to put it into Schengen? Put EU borders right next to mainland Russia? I am not that sure

[Artoo]

On second read, let me also say that that "peace" proposal is totally bollocks. To mediate successfully you need to have something for both sides to gain, that proposal would leave Russia with far less than they had before the beginning of the war (same territory but with a Russian acceptance that Crimea might not remain Russian after 2029 after all) so signing such a deal would guarantee Putin's downfall as he will have nothing to present to his people... which means Putin won't ever sign it.

Whilst I don’t believe it personally, if all sides agreed it to, I assume sanctions would be lifted too - which would help the Russian economy.

Putin never told Russia they were at war, just that he has to eradicate nazis that threatened Russia - he can actually claim at any time that the special operation was a success because it was founded on complete lies.

Quite how he explains away the regions he won and lost after he recently proclaimed would be ‘part of Russia forever’ is beyond me. But that’s his problem not mine. Maybe he’ll call it a ‘gift’ to Ukraine after ‘liberating’ them from a nazi regime.

That’s the kind of lies I’d expect of him actually.

[Mainshow]

The European Union shouldnīt give a damn about "bordering" mainland Russia.
Itīs not like Russian soldiers canīt freely move around Belarus and basically walk to Poland/Lithuania/Latvia or deploy nuclear weapons close to these countries (what Russia has already done at the Polish border years ago, anyway).

Let us not forget that Ukraine is one of the leading mineral-raw countries (titanium, iron, uranium, mercury, shale gas and more) - Apart from fascism, a reason why Russia wants to annex Ukraine. Itīs also the #1 country in Europe with arable land (barley, sunflower). Ukraineīs potential and the countryīs ressources are extra-ordinary and to some extent, unmatched in Europe.
Of course, Ukraine would have been an economically burden (at first).. even before the war.. but saying that "Ukraine has nothing to offer apart from soliders" is simply not correct.

[Artoo]

If true, that would mean Putin escapes any attempt to bring him and his country to justice for the last 9 months. While I accept that this would be convenient for the West - and May even be satisfactory to the leaders of Ukraine - it really gets to me that for bringing war to Europe and massacring thousands of innocent Ukrainian people and putting his own people into harms way, he will get away with it all.

If indeed the West are trying to broker a deal with Russia, Putin should also be forced to stomach the cost of all the reparations - it’s going to take a long time to rebuild Ukraine.

I completely agree, I just don’t know how we can make them do something they don’t want to do, like make a financial payment to Ukraine or hand Putin over so he can be tried for war crimes.

[jordi_89]

The European Union shouldnīt give a damn about "bordering" mainland Russia.
Itīs not like Russian soldiers canīt freely move around Belarus and basically walk to Poland/Lithuania/Latvia or deploy nuclear weapons close to these countries (what Russia has already done at the Polish border years ago, anyway).

Let us not forget that Ukraine is one of the leading mineral-raw countries (titanium, iron, uranium, mercury, shale gas and more) - Apart from fascism, a reason why Russia wants to annex Ukraine. Itīs also the #1 country in Europe with arable land (barley, sunflower). Ukraineīs potential and the countryīs ressources are extra-ordinary and to some extent, unmatched in Europe.
Of course, Ukraine would have been an economically burden (at first).. even before the war.. but saying that "Ukraine has nothing to offer apart from soliders" is simply not correct.

All of this + Russia has been losing population for years (except when it annexed Crimea) so they'll do anything in their power to add more population (by force if necessary) to revert that. (Other surrounding countries have also been losing population since 1991, specially Ukraine and Bulgaria but that's not the point here, they aren't trying to expand their borders)

[Artoo]

Ukraine has no place whatsoever in the EU or NATO. Remember that the most likely scenario is that even in the best of possibilities, it will be left with at least some territorry under Russian occupation and with a rather large population and destroyed economy. That is a country with absolutely nothing to offer to the alliance (other than soldiers) and let's not even go into why it cannot join the EU either. So all those promises are pretty emtpy IMO

I disagree. If Ukraine can demonstrate they can meet the criteria for entry to EU it should be admitted. They should also eventually be permitted to join NATO - if only to put Russia in its place.

It isn’t for Russia to dictate who can and cannot be part of NATO. Russia exploited the Ukraine’s isolated status on the world stage and the Ukraine should never be in such a vulnerable situation ever again.

Russia will not go to war with NATO, no matter what it says.