War in Ukraine

[jordi_89]

Regarding Ukraine's entry in the EU; exceptions were made with Greece, and most of the recent countries to enter are poor. Not adding another poor country would be a ridiculous excuse. Also, there's other countries with "dangerous" borders, not just Ukraine. Romania borders Moldova and the Balkans. Greece and Bulgaria border Tukrey and the Balkans. Hungary and Croatia border the Balkans. Poland borders Belarus, and we all know what happened there not too long ago. Plus the entire East borders Ukraine right now. There's gonna be dangerous borders even if we don't add more countries to the EU. It's just a monetary, political and at times social union, not a military one. So they can definitely get in if the ones in Brussels really want it.

[Mainshow]

it would flood the EU with migrants (Polish plumber would be nothing in comparison) while it will be the 4th biggest country in the European parliament, that is simply not happening.

Before the massive influx of refugees (2015), Ukraine has already been part of the Top 5 (or even higher) in terms of migrants in the EU.
Poland even assured temporary residence permits to 250,000 Ukrainians two years ago (thatīs the official number - The estimated number of unreported cases/"illegal migrants" is used to be much higher). - Poland didnīt collapse back then and I donīt know about the situation in your country but here in Germany, there are already Ukrainian children in (almost) every class - and due to the war, (the children and women, at least) can already "flood" the EU, anyway.
Iīm not saying itīs a positive or negative "thing" at all - just that thereīs no point of preventing Ukraine form joining the EU because of it would be "flooded by Ukrainians, otherwise".

[Mainshow]

Regarding Ukraine's entry in the EU; exceptions were made with Greece, and most of the recent countries to enter are poor. Not adding another poor country would be a ridiculous excuse. Also, there's other countries with "dangerous" borders, not just Ukraine. Romania borders Moldova and the Balkans. Greece and Bulgaria border Tukrey and the Balkans. Hungary and Croatia border the Balkans. Poland borders Belarus, and we all know what happened there not too long ago. Plus the entire East borders Ukraine right now. There's gonna be dangerous borders even if we don't add more countries to the EU. It's just a monetary, political and at times social union, not a military one. So they can definitely get in if the ones in Brussels really want it.

+ Poland, Lithuania, Finland and Norway already border Russia
Letīs add another country (if they meet most of/the important criteria).. who cares...

[jordi_89]

+ Poland, Lithuania, Finland and Norway already border Russia
Letīs add another country (if they meet most of/the important criteria).. who cares...

Yeah I didn't think of that but that's an obvious one as well. xD
Exactly, if they meet the criteria, they shouldn't be excluded because of Russia.

[stevyy]

What will happen once this war is over with Russia and the West? Is there any meaningful relationship between the EU and Russia even possible? I don't think it is with Putin still in power or anyone who is currently in the Russian government.

When there is some sort of peace at the end (which will not be in any way a successful peace for Russia in the sense that they will gain much or anything) I can see Kazakhstan and other close Putin allies breaking further away. Putin really diminished Russia's standing in the world tremendously, I think.

[theMathematician]

What will happen once this war is over with Russia and the West? Is there any meaningful relationship between the EU and Russia even possible?

Good question. I guess it depends on who is in power. Just look at the maojor German parties:
- Conservatives/Sociodemocrats: They are pretty divided.
- Green/Liberals: They (or at least the ones who are the loudest in their parties) want to cut the relationship to Russia or limit it to an absolute minimum.
- far right/far left: They definitely want to keep the relationship between Europa and Russia going.

[Artoo]

What will happen once this war is over with Russia and the West? Is there any meaningful relationship between the EU and Russia even possible? I don't think it is with Putin still in power or anyone who is currently in the Russian government.

When there is some sort of peace at the end (which will not be in any way a successful peace for Russia in the sense that they will gain much or anything) I can see Kazakhstan and other close Putin allies breaking further away. Putin really diminished Russia's standing in the world tremendously, I think.

The West didn’t really have a good relationship with Russia to begin with. At best it was cordial and that’s because each side wanted something from the other, and each side was able to get more from diplomacy.

But Russia has been meddling, manipulating, spying, hacking, poisoning (and god only knows what else) The West for years. The Kremlin is not our friend, but it could be, if it gets rid of that chip off its shoulder.

Putin was trained to live in the shadows. He came up in a different time in a different world, and if Russia ever gets a leader without the same baggage, who knows what it could become?

I’m not saying Russia needs to westernise, but it does need to modernise and commit to real democracy. Putin has had years to earn the power and position he seemingly craves for Russia, but instead seems to be focused on simply trying to take it. Look where’s it’s got him.

[jordi_89]

The West didn’t really have a good relationship with Russia to begin with. At best it was cordial and that’s because each side wanted something from the other, and each side was able to get more from diplomacy.

But Russia has been meddling, manipulating, spying, hacking, poisoning (and god only knows what else) The West for years. The Kremlin is not our friend, but it could be, if it gets rid of that chip off its shoulder.

Putin was trained to live in the shadows. He came up in a different time in a different world, and if Russia ever gets a leader without the same baggage, who knows what it could become?

I’m not saying Russia needs to westernise, but it does need to modernise and commit to real democracy. Putin has had years to earn the power and position he seemingly craves for Russia, but instead seems to be focused on simply trying to take it. Look where’s it’s got him.

I agree, but it's easier said than done. For Russia to fully embrace democracy it'd take a lot. And the entire generation Putin is a part of would have to step down, and I don't see that happening for the next 10-15 years.

[Artoo]

I agree, but it's easier said than done. For Russia to fully embrace democracy it'd take a lot. And the entire generation Putin is a part of would have to step down, and I don't see that happening for the next 10-15 years.

I don’t know enough about Russian politics to know what it’ll take, or frankly if there’s a genuine appetite for real political change in Russia. There are encouraging signs though - people protesting this war and bypassing Russian media to find out the truth.

People are awake and that is always the first step. Sometimes all it takes is a spark and usually one people don’t see coming. Putin may very well provide it himself for all we know.

[Wayne]

I was searching whether there had been any estimates of the cost of reparations and the World Bank quoting that it will cost c$359 billion to repair the damage inflicted by the war. Before the war, Ukraine’s GDP was $198 billion - it’s just not sobering that they themselves are going to be able to fix, Russia must be made to foot some of the bill. Or at least have some of its $594 billion in foreign reserves frozen and reallocated to Ukraine.

Kyiv has been making military advances in recent weeks, and since April the Ukrainian economy has shown signs of growth. Yet the Bank said recovery would be slow and the cost of repairing the damage inflicted by the war would be enormous. It put the cost at a minimum of $349bn (Ģ303bn) – more than one-and-a-half times the country’s prewar gross domestic product.

Ukraine was already Europe’s poorest country even before the war began in February this year, but more than seven months of conflict meant a third of its population of 44 million had been displaced and 60% were living below the national poverty line.

https://amp.theguardian.com/business...bank-forecasts

[franklex]

Ukraine has no place whatsoever in the EU or NATO. Remember that the most likely scenario is that even in the best of possibilities, it will be left with at least some territorry under Russian occupation and with a rather large population and destroyed economy. That is a country with absolutely nothing to offer to the alliance (other than soldiers) and let's not even go into why it cannot join the EU either. So all those promises are pretty emtpy IMO

Who has told you that??
Ukrain can give so much to EU that you do not even imagine, my friend...
This is the point of Russia to say to the West you dont ned Ukraine it is poor, unsafe and have nothing to offer so leave it. And I russsia will car of it...

Just a few words: electricity (nuclear + green), space ingeniring and other stuff, litium, gas and oil, coal and massive landfiels.

And what a bulshit that Ukraine will have some therithories occupied by russia??? You do not see that Ukraine will librate them?? So now we are doing what??? military jerking??? go there, then back and then go again??? Really??? We are what playing some sort of game with Russia???

[franklex]

I don’t know enough about Russian politics to know what it’ll take, or frankly if there’s a genuine appetite for real political change in Russia. There are encouraging signs though - people protesting this war and bypassing Russian media to find out the truth.

People are awake and that is always the first step. Sometimes all it takes is a spark and usually one people don’t see coming. Putin may very well provide it himself for all we know.

I dont know how or why you see it now. All that I can see for now is that sanctions are just starting to really work and people of russia just asking why a maintance of car costs times more even when ruble is doing well, they do not understand why is it. They are supporting Putin even their economy is starting to go down.
They are not looking for the thruth tho. Mean while Medvedev's telegram page increases from 400k followers to 4M now, alternative media do not have a such succes. There is not any alternative media in Russia, "Echo Moskvy" is dead and its owner were saying and keep saying that in Ukraine is a civil war, TV "Rain" is also recognized Crimea as part of Russia. Navalny is uslees and made anything to help Putin to get an olymph of power in Russia.
I do not see anything for now that you are talking about.

[franklex]

Dos it keep look like the West or Ukraine agreed on letting Russia holding Crimea until 2029? :
Or U think that after succes in Kyiv, Black Sea, Kharkiv and Kherson , Ukraine will stop and wont liberate its lands???

[franklex]

Q: Are you hopeful that the conflict will be resolved with Russia and Ukraine, sir?

THE PRESIDENT: Look, I don’t think the conflict will be resolved with Russia and Ukraine until Ukraine gets out of — until Putin gets out of Ukraine.

And this says man that can not dcide on its own at this moment. His oposition likely agres with him on that, eathr he would b much careful and not that clear.

Dont know what can be more clear then this...
Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-...-departure-24/

[theMathematician]

Do you think any of the Russian soldiers will end up in prison for having committed war crimes someday? As much as everyone talks about war crimes these days, the most important thing in the context of crimes seems to be missing: the legal consequences. A crime without any legal consequences is essentially no crime, and no one should get away with the things that are still happening each and every day.

[jordi_89]

Seeing the crowds of people receiving the soldiers in Kherson after it was liberated just sums up the entire situation. No matter how the Russian media try to twist everything, there's hundreds of thousands of people in the Russian controlled areas of Ukraine that never wanted and will never want to join Russia.

[jio]

Regarding Ukraine's entry in the EU; exceptions were made with Greece, and most of the recent countries to enter are poor. Not adding another poor country would be a ridiculous excuse. Also, there's other countries with "dangerous" borders, not just Ukraine. Romania borders Moldova and the Balkans. Greece and Bulgaria border Tukrey and the Balkans. Hungary and Croatia border the Balkans. Poland borders Belarus, and we all know what happened there not too long ago. Plus the entire East borders Ukraine right now. There's gonna be dangerous borders even if we don't add more countries to the EU. It's just a monetary, political and at times social union, not a military one. So they can definitely get in if the ones in Brussels really want it.

Aham lets address all these. Exceptions were not made for Greece, Greece entered the EEC, not the EU on virtually identical terms as Spain and Portugal later on. Yes, all the recent countries entering were poor but not destroyed by a war, not as poor as Ukraine by a long shot and with serious democratization and institution-building and reform minded efforts, all of which Ukraine lacks. Actually the war is Ukraine's main argument to join the EU. Even so, some of those countries turned their back on reforms as soon as they entered and that doesnt bode well for future enlargements. The western balkans are negotiating for years now and they should have priority. Poverty alone is not a reason not to admit a country but poverty, size, position and political circumstances are. Bulgaria is poor but small so it is OK. Cyprus is politically a timebomb but small so it doesnt matter. Poland is big but fastly growing and with no neighbourhood disputes so it is OK. Ukraine (like Turkey) ticks all the wrong boxes. Its problems with Russia do seem unimportant now but after Putin, they will become a serious liability. Ukraine wont go into the EU, unless it negotiates some kind of exceptional status

[jio]

Who has told you that??
Ukrain can give so much to EU that you do not even imagine, my friend...
This is the point of Russia to say to the West you dont ned Ukraine it is poor, unsafe and have nothing to offer so leave it. And I russsia will car of it...

Just a few words: electricity (nuclear + green), space ingeniring and other stuff, litium, gas and oil, coal and massive landfiels.

All of which the EU can have without Ukraine actually joining

[franklex]

By that point of view we can exclude Greece from the EU. EU will still have all that it has ven without Greece. Or we can by that point exclude almost any country in the EU.

I dont know about othr countris but I know how poor was Poland before 2000s.... Ukrain is Poland of thos years.

I like you, greeks you never beeing in Ukraine and reading only russians propaganda about Ukraine...

1. U are clearly denying that Ukraine brings it lands back.

2 U r saying about how poor is Ukraine ignoring that in the SU it was the 2nd strongest economy. And the only reason that Ukraine is poor now is what russia is doing to Ukraine for a few decads. I would lik to see greek's conomy under the war. Ukraine's economy falls only when russia is attacking Ukraine look 2007-2008 (gas wars), 2013-2014 (Crimea and Donbas) and 2022 now. Even now Ukrainian conomy starts to grow.

You are just much poor then Ukrain and are afraid that EU founds will no longer to go to Greece but to Ukraine instead.

3. Stupid to read that you say "Ukraine destroyed by a war" you do ignore that if we take max 25% of therithory of Ukraine was somehow in the war actions then 75% keep being NOT destroyed. this is like a whole Spain or Sweden or 6xGreece. But u say lik a whole Ukraine is just destroyed....

[franklex]

...as Ukraine by a long shot and with serious democratization and institution-building and reform minded efforts, all of which Ukraine lacks.

No it doesnt. We do needed reforms and democratization process. Not that fast and great but we ar on the track.As well as Poland they made same path and not in a few months.

Actually the war is Ukraine's main argument to join the EU.

This is just insane. Your sentance means you do know nothing about Ukraine. Ukraine wanted to join EU even before Russian war. Since 2008 EU-Ukraine were making negotiations about how, why, etc... And even bfore war it was arugument to join Ukraine. Thre were basic plan but there happened Russia in 2013. Which responsible you are compleatly ignore.

The western balkans are negotiating for years now and they should have priority.

This, you are saying just because of your regional location. I bet that Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Czech Rpublik and Sllovakia will not agree on that point and find that Ukrain should have a priority. ven I would add to that list Finland and Romania and Bulgaria.
Priority... in this case it is not the same as priority when you are boarding on the plane to take best seats. Balkans have no any war and do not depending on it lik Ukraine thatnks to Russia. If russia would not do all of it Ukrain could slowly do its homwork and b on the waiting list likeTurkey.

Poverty alone is not a reason not to admit a country but poverty, size, position and political circumstances are.

By this point Greece should go out of the EU in 2008...

Poland is big but fastly growing and with no neighbourhood disputes so it is OK.

What will you say if lets say tomorrow Russia which has a border with Poland will lts say that some polish lands voted for indepandence with 87% agres to join Russia and Putin will join that lands??? Ukraine has no neighbourhood disputes. That is russia can not decide where its borders today they say one thing anothr day they will say that the Moon is a part of Russia. So it is again not a problm of Ukraine (russia recognized Ukrainian borders many times in diffrent documents) it is a problem of Russia they do not follow thir own words and agreements.

Ukraine (like Turkey) ticks all the wrong boxes.

This is russia put Ukrain in such position. And Ukrain not comparison with Turkey.

Ukraine wont go into the EU, unless it negotiates some kind of exceptional status

U are saying like a typical russian that are denying that Ukraine is an subject and its nation have its own will. But you mak an object from Ukraine that decides nothing and just belong to Russia, menthaly or in anothr way. And this is not respectable.

[franklex]

Do you think any of the Russian soldiers will end up in prison for having committed war crimes someday? As much as everyone talks about war crimes these days, the most important thing in the context of crimes seems to be missing: the legal consequences. A crime without any legal consequences is essentially no crime, and no one should get away with the things that are still happening each and every day.

No thy will stay in Russia. I also know that some of thm already paid for their crimes with thir lives veen they are stayed in Russia.

[franklex]

For those of you who ever hear about Nazis in Ukraine and why it isa propaganda. And that russia is doing it not a first time, but for decades with diffrent nations. And Why Czch, Hungarians and Ukrainians has the same experienc with Russia. It is english languag video:

[franklex]

And one more video which should help you to undrstand that Ukrainians will not stop fighting. And if the Wst will stop supporting us w will di but not stop to fight. Russians wok up a true feury in Ukrainians.

[franklex]

And chck this out to understand why Ukrain will not wait with Crimea untill 2029. From militay point it is just mak to any sense.

[jordi_89]

Aham lets address all these. Exceptions were not made for Greece, Greece entered the EEC, not the EU on virtually identical terms as Spain and Portugal later on. Yes, all the recent countries entering were poor but not destroyed by a war, not as poor as Ukraine by a long shot and with serious democratization and institution-building and reform minded efforts, all of which Ukraine lacks. Actually the war is Ukraine's main argument to join the EU. Even so, some of those countries turned their back on reforms as soon as they entered and that doesnt bode well for future enlargements. The western balkans are negotiating for years now and they should have priority. Poverty alone is not a reason not to admit a country but poverty, size, position and political circumstances are. Bulgaria is poor but small so it is OK. Cyprus is politically a timebomb but small so it doesnt matter. Poland is big but fastly growing and with no neighbourhood disputes so it is OK. Ukraine (like Turkey) ticks all the wrong boxes. Its problems with Russia do seem unimportant now but after Putin, they will become a serious liability. Ukraine wont go into the EU, unless it negotiates some kind of exceptional status

I see a lot of "yes but...". All these things you said are kinda arbitrary. And most of the rules the EU makes when it comes to including some countries or helping others are also arbitrary at times. There should be no reason for the Balkan countries not to enter, or Ukraine, or Moldova, or Belarus if they decided to join (even if I don't like their regime). Poland is as "free" or progressive as Ukraine, and they're part of the EU. Greece and Turkey don't run their economies, they ruin them, and that has never been a reason for them to be excluded of the EU (in Turkey's case we all know the reason).
I agree that the countries that have been negotiating for years should enter first. But we all know how Brussels works.