Mariah Carey :: The "Caution" Era

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What will Caution sell in its first week, in the USA?

< 40k
16
16%
40-50k
15
15%
50-60k
25
25%
60-70k
18
18%
70-100k
19
19%
100k+
7
7%
 
Total votes : 100

Postby Kevinmakeme » Sat Nov 03, 2018 3:36 pm

A No No

Spotify Charts (02/11/2018)

126 (NEW) - Taiwan (4,372 streams)
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Postby nympho » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:28 am

Billboard Adult R&B
14 (16) 4 With You

Billboard Adult Contemporary
14 (17) 3 With You

Hopefully it’ll reach top 10 in both charts.
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Postby bm08 » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:41 am

Mediabase adds (building)

3 - UAC (4 adds)
6 - AC (3 adds)
x - Hot AC (3 adds)
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Postby RayRay » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:59 pm

GetBack wrote:I wish there were lyric videos issued for the newly released songs. :D :D :cry:
So do I. They are so popular. Don't understand why Mariah's team is not releasing those. :(
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Postby SummerPeur » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:26 pm

Good add's again so far.....I think Mimi will Get Top10 on 2 formats. Which is fantastic.
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Postby stevyy » Wed Nov 07, 2018 1:13 pm

Spotify Update:

With You

10/04/2018 - 284,138
10/05/2018 - 730,378 (+446,240)
10/06/2018 - 944,416 (+214,038)
10/07/2018 - 1,096,047 (+151,631)
10/08/2018 - 1,261,479 (+165,432)
10/09/2018 - 1,417,868 (+156,389)
10/10/2018 - 1,593,668 (+175,800)
10/11/2018 - 1,776,962 (+183,294)
10/12/2018 - 1,937,738 (+160,776)
10/13/2018 - 2,054,162 (+116,424)
10/16/2018 - 2,391,976 (+337,814)
10/17/2018 - 2,513,761 (+121,785)
10/18/2018 - 2,631,154 (+117,393)
10/19/2018 - 2,731,282 (+100,128)
10/20/2018 - 2,811,472 (+80,190)
10/21/2018 - 2,883,364 (+71,892)
10/22/2018 - 2,967,765 (+84,401)
10/23/2018 - 3,047,732 (+79,967)
10/24/2018 - 3,121,599 (+73,867)
10/25/26/2018 - 3,261,080 (+139,481)
10/27/2018 - 3,319,741 (+58,661)
10/28/2018 - 3,370,529 (+50,788)
10/29/2018 - 3,431,074 (+60,545)
10/30/2018 - 3,489,455 (+58,381)
10/31/2018 - 3,547,646 (+58,191)
11/01/2018 - 3,606,058 (+58,412)
11/02/2018 - 3,664,691 (+58,633)
11/03/2018 - 3,716,006 (+51,315)
11/04/2018 - 3,761,539 (+45,533)
11/05/2018 - 3,813,923 (+52,384)
11/06/2018 - 3,866,158 (+52,235)
11/07/2018 - 3,917,786 (+51,628)

The Distance:

10/18/2018 - 174,990
10/19/2018 - 606,534 (+431,544)
10/20/2018 - 807,747 (+201,213)
10/21/2018 - 938,285 (+130,538)
10/22/2018 - 1,094,153 (+155,868)
10/23/2018 - 1,234,682 (+140,529)
10/24/2018 - 1,364,434 (+129,752)
10/25/26/2018 - 1,571,674 (+207,240)
10/27/2018 - 1,630,298 (+58,624)
10/28/2018 - 1,678,548 (+48,250)
10/29/2018 - 1,736,283 (+57,735)
10/30/2018 - 1,795,856 (+59,573)
10/31/2018 - 1,853,223 (+57,367)
11/01/2018 - 1,912,779 (+59,556)
11/02/2018 - 1,964,092 (+51,313)
11/03/2018 - 2,006,908 (+42,816)
11/04/2018 - 2,043,206 (+36,298)
11/05/2018 - 2,083,242 (+40,036)
11/06/2018 - 2,122,533 (+39,291)
11/07/2018 - 2,161,057 (+38,524)

A No No
11/01/2018 - 88,574
11/02/2018 - 379,030 (+290,456)
11/03/2018 - 540,917 (+161,887)
11/04/2018 - 661,348 (+120,431)
11/05/2018 - 803,069 (+141,721)
11/06/2018 - 933,265 (+130,196)
11/07/2018 - 1,057,567 (+124,302)

GTFO
10/25/26/2018 - 5,850,070 (+139,464)
10/27/2018 - 5,906,116 (+56,046)
10/28/2018 - 5,955,465 (+49,349)
10/29/2018 - 6,015,876 (+60,411)
10/30/2018 - 6,077,865 (+61,989)
10/31/2018 - 6,139,211 (+61,346)
11/01/2018 - 6,202,723 (+63,512)
11/02/2018 - 6,264,436 (+61,713)
11/03/2018 - 6,320,728 (+56,292)
11/04/2018 - 6,370,181 (+49,453)
11/05/2018 - 6,428,206 (+58,025)
11/06/2018 - 6,486,077 (+57,871)
11/07/2018 - 6,545,256 (+59,179)

Caution Singles on Spotify: 13,408,033 / 8,938 SPS)
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Postby HellaGood » Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:14 pm

Urban AC:
15 13 MARIAH CAREY With You 864 690 +174 4.222

+37 Spins
+43 Bullet
+0.275 Audience

Adult Contemporary:
13 11 MARIAH CAREY With You 516 387 +129 1.828

+36 Spins
+14 Bullet
+0.103 Audience

Hot AC:
43 39 MARIAH CAREY With You 286 230 +56 0.455

+9 Spins
= Bullet
+0.007 Audience

:D 8-)
You got me feeling hella good, so let's just keep on dancin...
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Postby nympho » Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:04 pm

It seems she could have a top 10 both on Billboard AC and Billboard Adult R&B by the album release week...

At least they could introduce the song (in the event she promotes it) as “the R&B Top 10 hit”... :lol:
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Postby stevyy » Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:12 pm

nympho wrote:It seems she could have a top 10 both on Billboard AC and Billboard Adult R&B by the album release week...

At least they could introduce the song (in the event she promotes it) as “the R&B Top 10 hit”... :lol:
which used to have a lot of merit 30 years ago. It is still an achievement for Mariah or anyone who would accomplish that in their core audience formats. Imagine Madonna getting a Pop Radio top 10 radio single... I would build my entire promo campaign around that. :lol:
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Postby nympho » Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:15 pm

^
Well, being completely honest, the big accomplishment would be having a Top 10 in R&B/Hip-Hop Songs... the main chart.
But since streaming is counted, that chart is basically Hip-Hop Songs. They should change the name, as R&B songs have no chance there now...
So a Top 10 in R&B songs or Adult R&B will do.
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Postby biscuits » Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:34 am

Chart wise, my expectations are low. I think around 60K.
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Postby GetBack » Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:41 am

I think she'll do the same as her last album, probably between 55-60K SPS.
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Postby biscuits » Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:46 am

MIAM only did 60K?!
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Postby Ewokguy15 » Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:50 am

Looking at ticket sales for the bundle sale, having next to no streams and the last album opening I would imagine this will open somewhere between 40k-50k
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Postby biscuits » Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:53 am

Would 50K be enough for top 5?
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Postby Ewokguy15 » Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:59 am

biscuits wrote:Would 50K be enough for top 5?
Probably not, most likely 6-7
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Postby Marchum » Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:00 am

It’s weird that they’re not even trying tho.
It feels like Liberation all over again. She’s just releasing some good materials without trying to “make it happen” which makes sense tbh
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Postby Ewokguy15 » Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:02 am

Marchum wrote:It’s weird that they’re not even trying tho.
It feels like Liberation all over again. She’s just releasing some good materials without trying to “make it happen” which makes sense tbh
Yeah this is extremely reminiscent of the Liberation era
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Postby biscuits » Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:04 am

With You should finally pass 3M views today
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Postby bm08 » Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:14 am

stevyy wrote:
nympho wrote:It seems she could have a top 10 both on Billboard AC and Billboard Adult R&B by the album release week...

At least they could introduce the song (in the event she promotes it) as “the R&B Top 10 hit”... :lol:
which used to have a lot of merit 30 years ago. It is still an achievement for Mariah or anyone who would accomplish that in their core audience formats. Imagine Madonna getting a Pop Radio top 10 radio single... I would build my entire promo campaign around that. :lol:
Probably promo it has the #1 R&B album, which is what they did with MIAM for all of one week. I am still hoping she is able to snatch Ella Mai's 69K opening. That'd be a major accomplishment for me.
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Postby sm3 » Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:41 am

How are the updated tour ticket sales looking like?

How are the pre-order sales thus far

I hope the first week sales get to above 60k preferably 80k.

Lets see whether she'll be having some major promo and live performances since on the streaming front things seem dead.
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Postby locoporti » Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:53 am

I think this is opening in best case scenario with 70k , including SPS . By the way , Michael Bublé is also having a ticket bundle, he announced an extensive North American tour starting in February.

There's absolutely no hype at all for Caution to be honest, only her die hard fanbase is excited about this new album, I would say most of her casual fan base is not even aware of this release. She should have a much better roll out. :s
Last edited by locoporti on Fri Nov 09, 2018 9:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby biscuits » Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:21 am

There are gonna be so many excuses. I’m already rolling eyes
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Postby Parkelife » Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:26 am

biscuits wrote:There are gonna be so many excuses. I’m already rolling eyes
And now the lambs will jump on the Buble bundle and say it's not fair.
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Postby nympho » Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:46 am

biscuits wrote:There are gonna be so many excuses. I’m already rolling eyes
It depends.
If the release week comes and she has no TV promo and people say that affected her debut sales, that won’t be an excuse.
If she ends below some other albums on BB200 despite selling much more pure copies just because of streaming and people complain about it, that won’t be an excuse.
If people talk about what a bad single choice With You was, that won’t be an excuse...
If people talk about what a terrible, terrible idea it was to release an album in mid November for someone like her, and in such a busy week, when those same numbers would mean a much better position in Spring or Summer, that won’t be an excuse.

All those are facts.

There could be as well lots of absurd excuses and delusional thinking, that’s for sure. It doesn’t mean that, without all of the above mentioned, the album would have smashed.
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